After nine seasons with the Carolina Hurricanes, Pesce looks set to find a new home.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

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Player Overview

Originally selected by Carolina in the third round of the 2013 NHL Draft, Brett Pesce has spent his entire career with the Hurricanes to this point.

The defenseman has been a pillar within the team’s top-four group, and while he won’t put up huge offensive numbers, Pesce’s impact in his own end has remained fairly consistent. He’s good in battles, effective in being able break up plays to kill offense, and has some physicality in his game.

The defenseman also has a hard slap shot and can move down to get into position to take a pass. He doesn’t have a ton of speed and isn’t necessarily much of a playmaker, but he’s comfortable enough handling the puck in all zones. 

That said, Pesce is coming off a bit of a down year, which could have dropped his value to an extent. His 13 assists in 70 games this season was the lowest mark of his entire career, while his usage also dropped down to only a little over 20 minutes per game, after four straight years of being around the 22-minute mark.

Still, Pesce remains a good option to provide some defensive stability for the right price.

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What We Know

• The Hurricanes reportedly wanted to re-sign Pesce to a deal carrying around a $4M or $5M cap hit last summer, according to The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta.
• However, Pagnotta’s recent report indicates that Pesce is likely to head to free agency on July 1.
• On 32 Thoughts, Elliotte Friedman noted the New Jersey Devils could be one of the teams in on Pesce.
• Pagnotta also noted that the defenseman is on Nashville’s radar.

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Comparables

Below, we take a look at what Pesce’s deal could look like at different lengths. With Pesce turning 30 years old in November, the comparables used will generally be defensemen who were between 28 and 32 years old in the first year of their deal.

For readers using mobile view, the tables below allow for horizontal scrolling.

7/8 YEARS

Carolina would be the only team able to sign Pesce to an eight-year contract, and comparables for eight-year deals are below.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88M Cap
Brett Pesce	30	2024	15 70GP	26 627GP	20:17	21:05
*Oliver Ekman-Larsson	28	2019	42 82GP	41 576GP	23:41	23:39	$8.25M 8 years	$8.91M 8 years
John Carlson	28	2018	68 82GP	45 608GP	24:47	23:00	$8.00M 8 years	$8.86M 8 years
*Brent Seabrook	31	2016	31 82GP	34 763GP	22:11	22:29	$6.88M 8 years	$8.29M 8 years
**Morgan Rielly	28	2022	51 63GP	44 580GP	23:43	21:53	$7.50M 8 years	$8.00M 8 years
*Marc-Edouard Vlasic	31	2018	31 75GP	26 812GP	21:14	22:01	$7.00M 8 years	$7.75M 8 years
**Noah Hanifin	27	2024	47 77GP	34 675GP	23:37	20:29	$7.35M 8 years	$7.35M 8 years
Filip Hronek	27	2024	49 81GP	43 390GP	23:26	22:32	$7.25M 8 years	$7.25M 8 years
*Colton Parayko	29	2022	31 32GP	34 418GP	21:20	21:43	$6.50M 8 years	$6.93M 8 years
**Hampus Lindholm	28	2022	30 61GP	31 589GP	22:32	22:11	$6.50M 8 years	$6.93M 8 years
*Ryan Ellis	28	2019	60 44GP	36 396GP	23:31	19:36	$6.25M 8 years	$6.75M 8 years
*MacKenzie Weeger	29	2023	45 80GP	32 306GP	23:22	19:33	$6.25M 8 years	$6.59M 8 years
Damon Severson	29	2023	33 81GP	33 647GP	19:57	21:11	$6.25M 8 years	$6.59M 8 years
*Ryan Pulock	28	2022	25 56GP	35 290GP	22:27	21:03	$6.15M 8 years	$6.56M 8 years
Adam Pelech	27	2021	21 56GP	20 303GP	21:03	19:16	$5.75M 8 years	$6.21M 8 years
**Gustav Forsling	28	2024	42 63GP	33 397GP	21:48	20:27	$5.75M 8 years	$5.75M 8 years
*Erik Cernak	26	2023	19 55GP	21 226GP	19:09	19:15	$5.20M 8 years	$5.48M 8 years

Just looking at the comps though, there’s really nothing pointing to the fact that Pesce could earn that kind of term.

The only comps above that Pesce would realistically be comparable to would be Adam Pelech and Erik Cernak, at the bottom of the table. The production and ice time were similar to those of Pelech, while Pesce even had better numbers than Cernak.

At the same time, there are two things working against Pesce there. First, both defenders are quite a ways younger than Pesce, leaving much more risk of decline in Pesce’s deal. Then additionally, Pelech was coming off back-to-back Eastern Conference Final appearances where he had established himself as one of the best shutdown defenders in the NHL, while Cernak was coming off back-to-back Stanley Cups. As a result, Pesce, isn’t overly likely to reach the adjusted cap hit of either player, and any unlikely maximum-term deal would likely fall well short of a $5M cap hit.

Seven years would also be an unlikely contract term for Pesce, but would be the maximum he could get as of July 1, with comps below.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88M Cap
Brett Pesce	30	2024	15 70GP	26 627GP	20:17	21:05
Dougie Hamilton	28	2021	63 55GP	46 607GP	22:43	20:27	$9.00M 7 years	$9.71M 7 years
Alex Pietrangelo	30	2020	61 70GP	49 758GP	24:11	24:38	$8.80M 7 years	$9.50M 7 years
*Jared Spurgeon	31	2020	43 82GP	35 591GP	24:09	22:21	$7.58M 7 years	$8.18M 7 years
Keith Yandle	30	2016	47 82GP	46 661GP	19:58	21:10	$6.35M 7 years	$7.65M 7 years
***Johnny Boychuk	31	2015	44 59GP	23 380GP	21:38	20:22	$6.00M 7 years	$7.39M 7 years
*Ryan McDonagh	30	2019	38 63GP	37 530GP	23:20	23:30	$6.75M 7 years	$7.29M 7 years
**Devon Toews	30	2024	52 81GP	48 315GP	25:06	23:01	$7.25M 7 years	$7.25M 7 years
*Justin Faulk	28	2019	35 82GP	38 559GP	22:25	23:16	$6.50M 7 years	$7.02M 7 years
Torey Krug	29	2020	66 61GP	66 61GP	20:29	20:19	$6.50M 7 years	$7.02M 7 years
*Jonas Brodin	28	2021	33 69GP	22 555GP	21:33	21:50	$6.00M 7 years	$6.48M 7 years
Scott Mayfield	31	2023	24 82GP	21 428GP	21:01	19:12	$3.50M 7 ears	$3.69M 7 years

Even with the players who signed seven-year deals around the same age though, you see very few realistic comps. The only one that really stands out is Scott Mayfield. The production and ice time were relatively similar, and while Pesce may be a bit higher than a $3.7M cap hit, the Mayfield comp is by far the best comp of the ones listed.

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6 YEARS

For a six-year contract, we don’t have a ton to work with in the way of comps, given it hasn’t been a popular length of deal for defenders around Pesce’s age.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88M Cap
Brett Pesce	30	2024	15 70GP	26 627GP	20:17	21:05
**Nate Schmidt	28	2019	39 84GP	24 284GP	22:14	18:08	$5.95M 6 years	$6.42M 6 years
Ryan Graves	28	2023	27 78GP	27 302GP	19:57	18:59	$4.50M 6 years	$4.74M 6 years

Of the two comps, Pesce’s numbers are certainly more closely aligned to those of Ryan Graves. The two defensemen had similar signing year ice time, as well as career production. The while Pesce had the higher career ice time, Graves had the higher signing year production. Graves did sign at two years younger, but Pesce had the higher career experience.

As a result, Graves’ $4.75M adjusted cap hit is the best comp we have available for a possible six-year deal for Pesce.

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5 YEARS

At five years, we start to see what’s a more realistic length for Pesce’s deal.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88M Cap
Brett Pesce	30	2024	15 70GP	26 627GP	20:17	21:05
*Dustin Byfuglien	31	2016	50 52GP	48 649GP	24:14	20:53	$7.60M 5 years	$9.16M 5 years
Alex Goligoski	31	2016	37 82GP	40 562GP	23:50	22:37	$5.45M 5 years	$6.57M 5 years
Tyler Myers	29	2019	32 80GP	34 635GP	20:21	22:22	$6.00M 5 years	$6.48M 5 years
*Rasmus Ristolainen	28	2022	23 50GP	36 592GP	21:26	23:37	$5.10M 5 years	$5.44M 5 years
Karl Alzner	29	2017	13 82GP	16 591GP	19:47	20:12	$4.63M 5 years	$5.43M 5 years
Jason Demers	28	2016	30 62GP	28 423GP	20:52	18:44	$4.50M 5 years	$5.42M 5 years
Jamie Oleksiak	29	2021	21 56GP	16 369GP	20:29	16:09	$4.60M 5 years	$4.97M 5 years

While Pesce doesn’t compare well against any of the comps from Tyler Myers or above, we do see more similar stats with some of the defenseman lower on the table.

In the set of three comps all right around a $5.4M adjusted cap hit, Pesce had better numbers than Karl Alzner in every single category. Then with Jason Demers, the career production and signing year ice time were fairly comparable, and while Demers had much better signing year production, Pesce had much higher career usage. Pesce doesn’t compare nearly as well to Rasmus Ristolainen, leaving a bit of doubt he’d be up around that $5.4M mark, but he does compare better against Jamie Oleksiak’s numbers. Pesce had the lower signing year production, but signing year ice time was comparable, and Pesce’s career numbers were much better, pointing to the fact that he’d likely be a little above the $5M mark.

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4 YEARS

A four-year contract would be another realistic term for Pesce’s deal.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88M Cap
Brett Pesce	30	2024	15 70GP	26 627GP	20:17	21:05
Kevin Shattenkirk	28	2017	57 80GP	50 480GP	19:56	21:06	$6.65M 4 years	$7.80M 4 years
*Mattias Ekholm	32	2022	39 48GP	31 586GP	22:52	21:36	$6.25M 4 years	$6.67M 4 years
*Jared Spurgeon	27	2016	44 32GP	30 307GP	22:18	21:01	$5.19M 4 years	$6.26M 4 years
*Jake Muzzin	31	2020	35 52GP	36 578GP	21:36	21:15	$5.63M 4 years	$6.08M 4 years
T.J. Brodie	30	2021	24 64GP	34 634GP	20:27	22:35	$5.00M 4 years	$5.40M 4 years
Brendan Smith	28	2017	14 51GP	19 309GP	19:15	18:01	$4.35M 4 years	$5.10M 4 years
Ben Chiarot	31	2022	29 76GP	20 489GP	22:51	18:38	$4.75M 4 years	$5.07M 4 years
Chris Tanev	31	2020	24 69GP	19 514GP	19:32	19:44	$4.50M 4 years	$4.86M 4 years
Josh Manson	31	2022	20 67GP	21 475GP	18:59	19:44	$4.50M 4 years	$4.80M 4 years
*Artem Zub	28	2023	22 95GP	23 142GP	21:11	20:15	$4.50M 4 years	$4.74M 4 years
Kris Russell	30	2017	16 67GP	24 641GP	20:17	19:24	$4.00M 4 years	$4.69M 4 years
Connor Murphy	29	2022	25 50GP	18 494GP	22:09	19:06	$4.40M 4 years	$4.69M 4 years
Jake Gardiner	29	2019	40 62GP	36 551GP	21:13	21:21	$4.05M 4 years	$4.37M 4 years
Adam Larsson	29	2021	15 56GP	19 603GP	19:39	20:42	$4.00M 4 years	$4.32M 4 years
**Jake McCabe	28	2021	17 79GP	18 353GP	18:38	19:15	$4.00M 4 years	$4.32M 4 years
Nick Leddy	31	2022	26 75GP	35 851GP	21:25	20:37	$4.00M 4 years	$4.27M 4 years
Brenden Dillon	30	2020	17 69GP	16 598GP	19:27	18:34	$3.90M 4 years	$4.21M 4 years

Right off the bat though, Pesce’s numbers are lower than every defender from T.J. Brodie and above, so we know we’re looking at comps from Brendan Smith ($5.1M adjusted cap hit) and below. At the same time, Pesce’s numbers are also generally better than any of Dillon, McCabe and Larsson on the low end of the comps (aside from two offensive defensemen in Gardiner and Leddy). As a result, we’re likely also looking in the range of Connor Murphy’s $4.7M adjusted cap hit and above on the low end of comps.

Looking at how Pesce compares to Smith at the top of that range though, and the comparison points to the fact that Pesce should be well above the $5.1M adjusted cap hit, with better numbers in every category. That said, with all six other comps from Chiarot down to Murphy, he generally had better career numbers, but his signing year production was lower than all, and his signing year ice time was lower than some.

Pesce’s career ice time gives him the edge over Russell, and Zub’s lack of career experience likely points to Pesce being higher than him. Meanwhile, Pesce’s usage likely puts him above the Tanev and Manson contracts. That said, both Chiarot and Murphy act as more interesting comps, where each of the defensemen had a much better signing year than Pesce.

So while Pesce’s value may be right around the $5M mark on a four-year deal, it wouldn’t be a whole lot higher.

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1-3 YEARS

Any deal between one and three years is very unlikely for Pesce. Given his age, he’ll want term on his contract, and probably won’t be in a better position by re-entering the market in the near future after any short-term deal.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88M Cap
Brett Pesce	30	2024	15 70GP	26 627GP	20:17	21:05
Mike Green	30	2015	51 72GP	51 575GP	19:06	22:11	$6.00M 3 years	$7.39M 3 years
Justin Schultz	27	2017	54 78GP	38 344GP	20:27	21:21	$5.50M 3 years	$6.45M 3 years
Tyson Barrie	30	2021	70 56GP	53 610GP	21:24	21:45	$4.50M 3 years	$4.88M 3 years

In terms of three-year comps above, we don’t have much to go off. The three recent examples are all offensive defensemen, that don’t really provide an equivalent value for Pesce. Based on the market value for Pesce on a four-year deal though as explored above, any three-year deal would likely come with a similar cap hit.

However, as I’ve talked about in other projection articles, the one possibility that’s become a little more popular is a two-year deal. We’ve seen both Dmitry Orlov and Vladislav Gavrikov take deals at an inflated cap hit, that would be higher than they could otherwise get at a different term.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88M Cap
Brett Pesce	30	2024	15 70GP	26 627GP	20:17	21:05
Dmitry Orlov	32	2023	45 66GP	32 709GP	22:33	20:15	$7.75M 2 years	$8.17M 2 years
Vladislav Gavrikov	28	2023	22 72GP	24 276GP	21:58	20:48	$5.88M 2 years	$6.20M 2 years

While the Orlov comp isn’t overly realistic, Pesce’s career numbers align quite closely to Gavrikov’s stats. While Pesce had signing year production and ice time that was quite a bit lower than Gavrikov, meaning he’d be unlikely to reach Gavrikov’s $6.2M adjusted cap hit, a two-year deal could still see a cap hit that’s higher than it would otherwise be at a longer length of deal, likely between the $5.5M and $6M mark.

Coming off a down year, there’s always the chance we could see Pesce take a one-year deal, in an attempt to build up his value. Still, given his age, it would be a risk and remains unlikely.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88M Cap
Brett Pesce	30	2024	15 70GP	26 627GP	20:17	21:05
John Klingberg	30	2022	52 74GP	56 552GP	22:13	22:59	$7.00M 1 year	$7.47M 1 year
Matt Dumba	30	2023	15 79GP	32 598GP	21:17	20:37	$3.90M 1 year	$4.11M 1 year
Tyson Barrie	29	2020	46 70GP	51 554GP	21:53	21:47	$3.75M 1 year	$4.05M 1 year

Looking at the comps though, by far the most comparable player would be Matt Dumba, at a $4.1M cap hit. While it’s on the low side, and any small chance of a one-year deal for Pesce would likely need to be closer to market value, the Dumba comp is the best comparable of the few we have.

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Projection

A deal between four and six years remains the most likely scenario for Pesce’s contract, at varying cap hits depending on the term.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
6 Years	$4.75M	$5.00M	$4.00M
5 Years	$5.30M	$5.50M	$4.75M
4 Years	$5.13M	$5.25M	$4.75M

There’s also an outside chance that Pesce could get a maximum-term deal at a reduced cap hit (like Mayfield), but it remains very unlikely.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
7/8 Years	$4.25M	$4.50M	$3.50M

A deal at three years or less is also extremely unlikely for Pesce. Of the options, a two-year deal at an inflated cap hit is the most possible, but remains a longshot.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
1 Years	$5.00M	$5.00M	$4.00M
2 Years	$5.75M	$6.00M	$5.50M
3 Years	$5.25M	$5.50M	$4.50M