At 32 years old, Toffoli still remains a very effective top-six winger.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

Player Overview

Tyler Toffoli’s NHL career got off to a hot start roughly a decade ago, winning a Stanley Cup in 2014 with the Los Angeles Kings during just his first season as a full-time member of the team.

Toffoli remained as a contributing member of the Kings’ lineup for several more years from there. But with the team entering a rebuild around 2019-20, he was traded at the deadline for a playoff run with the Vancouver Canucks. He’s bounced around a bit since then, spending time with all of the Montreal Canadiens, Calgary Flames, New Jersey Devils and Winnipeg Jets over the last four years.

Toffoli doesn’t have much speed, but can consistently provide scoring. He’s scored 67 goals in over the last two seasons, and is just a year removed from posting 73 points with the Flames. Even at 32 years old, Toffoli hasn’t shown any signs of his offensive production slipping, and remains a really good option for teams seeking a top-six winger in free agency.

What We Know

• Per Rick Dhaliwal, Toffoli will be looking for term on his next contract
• The Vancouver Canucks have interest in a reunion with Toffoli, per Dhaliwal.
• Elliotte Friedman also named the New York Rangers as a team he could see having interest in Toffoli, on 32 Thoughts.

Comparables

Below, we take a look at what Toffoli’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.

With Toffoli now 32 years old, the comparables used will generally be wingers who were near his age at the time of signing.

For readers using mobile view, the tables below allow for horizontal scrolling.

4 YEARS

Given Toffoli’s age, four years is likely the maximum term we’d see for the winger.

Based on the comps, we see a pretty wide range of projections for a four-year deal, verging from $3.8M on the low end, up to $7.9M on the high end. That said, the four middle comps would all have Toffoli between $5.75M and $6.45M, which may be the most realistic range.

Considering Alex Killorn was coming off two recent Stanley Cup wins at the time of signing though, that almost certainly would’ve inflated his payment rate, which is an indicator that Toffoli could end up on the lower end of that range. Looking at the actual cap hits of the contracts as well, the majority of the comps had their deals come in at the $6M mark or below, including Gustav Nyquist, who had very comparable production.

With Toffoli reportedly looking for term, it would just be a matter of whether any team is willing to give a four-year deal to the winger, based on his age.

3 YEARS

A three-year deal would be another realistic possibility for Toffoli’s deal, in the case he can’t get a four-year contract.

Based on some recent comps, we also see a very defined range of what we can expect him to make on a three-year deal. Other than one outlier in the Paul Stastny contract (which was also the least recent deal on the table), all six of the other comps above would have Toffoli between $4.6M and $5.6M on a three-year deal. That said, four of the six comps would have Toffoli between $4.9M and $5.2M.

As a result, we have a pretty good idea that a three-year contract for Toffoli would probably come in a little above the $5M mark, but likely a little below the projections for a four-year deal.

2 YEARS

Two years is on the shorter end of what we could see, in terms of a deal for Toffoli.

Of the three comps, we see another fairly defined range, projecting Toffoli between $4.4M and $5.5M.

At the same time, both Jordan Eberle and David Perron were two years older than Toffoli for the first year of their respective deals. While that’s a bit of a non-factor for players in their 20s, it can be more important in regards to payment rate for players in their 30s.

As a result, the most comparable player here is likely Tomas Tatar. So while Toffoli may not be quite at the $5.45M projecting from the Tatar deal, it’s a good bet that he’s closer to that mark than the other two comps.

1 YEAR

With Toffoli reportedly looking for term, a one-year deal seems fairly unlikely. Still, if he was able to get himself into a situation where he could potentially increase his value and set himself up for a larger deal a year down the road, it’s a possibility.

While the comps have a very wide range of what this deal could look like for Toffoli, the actual cap hits/adjusted cap hits paint a clearer picture. Three of the four were in the range of about $5.3M to $5.6M, and both the Tarasenko and Zucker deals represent very recent examples of players with comparable signing year production who took a one-year deal. So if Toffoli did end up on a one-year deal to build his value, we’d likely see him in that general range.

Projection

There’s a good chance Toffoli could set himself up with either a three or four-year deal in free agency. The less likely option would be a short-term contract, with the winger taking a one or two-year deal.