Lindholm could enter free agency as one of the top centers available.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

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Player Overview

Originally selected fifth overall by the Carolina Hurricanes in 2013, Elias Lindholm has cemented himself as a well-rounded, top-six center over the last decade.

After beginning his career in Carolina, Lindholm was dealt to the Calgary Flames as part of a blockbuster deal, which also included Noah Hanifin, Dougie Hamilton and the rights to Adam Fox. In Calgary, not only did he see a major increase in his production, but also established himself as one of the top defensive centers in the NHL. His best year with the Flames came in 2021-22, where he scored 42 goals and 82 points, while also finishing second in Selke Trophy voting.

Lindholm’s numbers did drop back down in 2022-23 though, before a really disappointing offensive year this season. The forward was traded to the Vancouver Canucks ahead of the deadline, but ended up finishing the season with just 15 goals and 44 points in 75 games, split between the two teams. While he did recover for a better postseason, it was still a year where his value took a bit of a hit.

Still, despite being set to turn 30 years old later this year, Lindholm could hit July 1 as one of the top UFA centers. He’d be a great fit as a second-line center on a contender, and while he may not repeat his 2021-22 success, he could bounce back to be good for about 25 goals and 60-65 points per year, along with staying in the Selke Trophy conversation.

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What We Know

• While in Calgary, Lindholm was reportedly seeking a contract carrying a $9 million cap hit, while the Flames were willing to go around the $8 million mark, per The Fourth Period.
• Elliotte Friedman believed the Canucks were willing to offer in the range of a seven-year deal, carrying a $7M cap hit (per 32 Thoughts).
• Given the Boston Bruins’ available cap space and need for an upgrade down the middle, Lindholm seems like a natural fit in Boston, if he hits free agency.

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Comparables

Below, we take a look at what Lindholm’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.

With Lindholm turning 30 years old in December, the comparables used will generally be centers who were near his age at the time of signing.

For readers using mobile view, the tables below allow for horizontal scrolling.

7/8 YEARS

An eight-year contract would only be available for Lindholm in the case that he re-signs with Vancouver, with comparables who have signed eight-year deals listed below.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $88M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Elias Lindholm	30	2024	16-48 75GP	22-56 818GP	19-52
**Anze Kopitar	29	2016	23-69 43GP	26-73 726GP	25-71	$10.00M 8 years	$12.05M 8 years	1.70	$8.83M 8 years
**Tomas Hertl	29	2022	35-67 59GP	26-54 562GP	31-61	$8.14M 8 years	$8.68M 8 years	1.42	$7.40M 8 years
*Mika Zibanejad	29	2022	35-73 56GP	27-59 604GP	31-66	$8.50M 8 years	$9.07M 8 years	1.37	$7.15M 8 years
*Logan Couture	30	2019	36-64 78GP	30-62 582GP	33-63	$8.00M 8 years	$8.64M 8 years	1.37	$7.13M 8 years
*Nathan MacKinnon	28	2023	40-111 65GP	31-83 638GP	36-97	$12.60M 8 years	$13.28M 8 years	1.37	$7.12M 8 years
*Sean Couturier	30	2022	33-75 45GP	21-52 692GP	27-64	$7.75M 8 years	$8.27M 8 years	1.29	$6.72M 8 years
*Brayden Schenn	29	2020	19-62 72GP	22-52 587GP	21-57	$6.50M 8 years	$7.02M 8 years	1.23	$6.40M 8 years
**Bo Horvat	28	2023	52-90 49GP	27-55 621GP	40-73	$8.50M 8 years	$8.96M 8 years	1.23	$6.38M 8 years
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	28	2021	25-55 52GP	23-60 656GP	24-58	$5.13M 8 years	$5.54M 8 years	0.96	$4.97M 8 years

Based on the comparables, taking out the two outliers in Anze Kopitar and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the other seven comps would all project that Lindholm comes in somewhere between $6.4M and $7.4M. We also see a group of three deals all in a very defined range, with the contracts for Mika Zibanejad, Logan Couture, and Nathan MacKinnon all projecting an eight-year deal for Lindholm could come in right around $57 million total (around a $7.13M cap hit).

So while other comps would project the center could come in lower on an eight-year deal, he’d have a decent case for being up around the $7M mark.

With the comps for seven-year contracts below, we’d see the maximum term that Lindholm could get if he hits free agency.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $88M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Elias Lindholm	30	2024	16-48 75GP	22-56 818GP	19-52
John Tavares	28	2018	37-84 82GP	33-76 669GP	35-80	$11.00M 7 years	$12.18M 7 years	1.52	$7.91M 7 years
Matt Duchene	28	2019	35-79 73GP	26-62 727GP	31-71	$8.00M 7 years	$8.64M 7 years	1.22	$6.33M 7 years
*Mark Scheifele	31	2024	43-69 81GP	31-73 723GP	37-71	$8.50M 7 years	$8.50M 7 years	1.20	$6.23M 7 years
Vincent Trocheck	29	2022	21-52 82GP	22-56 555GP	22-54	$5.63M 7 years	$6.01M 7 years	1.11	$5.79M 7 years
*J.T. Miller	30	2023	33-101 80GP	22-58 637GP	28-80	$8.00M 7 years	$8.43M 7 years	1.05	$5.48M 7 years
Nazem Kadri	32	2022	32-100 71GP	24-57 739GP	28-79	$7.00M 7 years	$7.47M 7 years	0.95	$4.92M 7 years

That said, these comps actually have Lindholm coming in quite a bit lower. The John Tavares contract is the only deal that even has Lindholm above a $6.5M cap hit on a seven-year deal.

Then while Nazem Kadri’s contract would have carried a lower payment rate, given that 1) He was 32 years old for the first year of the deal and 2) was coming off a huge outlier year, the other four comps would all have Lindholm between roughly $5.5M and $6.3M. Based on production, the most comparable player is actually Vincent Trocheck, projecting a $5.8M cap hit for seven years.

Still, I think we can use the comps for a possible eight-year deal to project that Lindholm would probably still be on the higher end of the projections we see for a seven-year contract. It’s unlikely to think that Lindholm’s cap hit would be any higher on an eight-year deal with Vancouver rather than a seven-year deal elsewhere. As a result, while Lindholm would be unlikely to ever get up to the $7.9M cap hit that the Tavares contract projects, there’s a good chance we still see him above some of the projections for the comps on a seven-year deal, around the $7M mark.

Plus, with Lindholm likely seeking the most money possible (based on the reported contracts that he hasn’t signed in Calgary and Vancouver), you have to imagine he’ll be following the money to an extent on July 1. If Vancouver was willing to go up to $7M on a seven-year deal, we have a gauge on where the market stands for the center.

Again though, if he’s seeking substantially more than a $7M cap hit on a seven or eight-year deal, there really aren’t a ton of comparables to justify it. Of the 15 comps used above for projecting a seven/eight-year deal, only three of them would project Lindholm above a $7.15M cap hit.

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6 YEARS

There are also quite a few good comparables for a six-year deal. While it’s likely teams will be willing to offer a longer deal, Lindholm’s production is actually more comparable to many of the players who signed for six years, rather than for seven/eight years.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $88M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Elias Lindholm	30	2024	16-48 75GP	22-56 818GP	19-52
*Ryan Kesler	32	2016	20-48 81GP	23-49 736GP	22-49	$6.88M 6 years	$8.29M 6 years	1.69	$8.80M 6 years
Phillip Danault	28	2021	8-37 53GP	12-42 392GP	10-40	$5.50M 6 years	$5.94M 6 years	1.49	$7.72M 6 years
***Charlie Coyle	28	2020	13-37 106GP	15-41 525GP	14-39	$5.25M 6 years	$5.67M 6 years	1.45	$7.56M 6 years
Brock Nelson	28	2019	25-53 82GP	21-41 480GP	23-47	$6.00M 6 years	$6.48M 6 years	1.38	$7.17M 6 years
*David Krejci	29	2015	19-71 80GP	18-62 504GP	19-67	$7.25M 6 years	$8.94M 6 years	1.33	$6.94M 6 years
*Mikael Backlund	29	2018	14-48 58GP	16-41 519GP	15-45	$5.35M 6 years	$5.92M 6 years	1.32	$6.84M 6 years
Frans Nielsen	32	2016	20-53 81GP	16-47 606GP	18-50	$5.25M 6 years	$6.33M 6 years	1.27	$6.58M 6 years
***Kyle Turris	29	2018	28-59 89GP	21-48 544GP	25-54	$6.00M 6 years	$6.64M 6 years	1.23	$6.40M 6 years
**Jean-Gabriel Pageau	28	2020	33-55 60GP	17-35 428GP	25-45	$5.00M 6 years	$5.40M 6 years	1.20	$6.24M 6 years
*Bryan Little	29	2018	24-60 57GP	22-52 613GP	23-56	$5.29M 6 years	$5.86M 6 years	1.05	$5.44M 6 years
*Jonathan Marchessault	28	2018	35-87 35GP	27-55 157GP	31-71	$5.00M 6 years	$5.53M 6 years	0.78	$4.05M 6 years

We see outliers in Ryan Kesler at the upper end of the comps, and two outliers in Bryan Little and Jonathan Marchessault on the lower end of comps. Of the eight other comps though, all would have Lindholm between about $6.25M and $7.75M.

A six-year deal could come up in a situation where Lindholm couldn’t get the cap hit he was looking for on a seven/eight-year deal, and a team was willing to offer a higher cap hit for a shorter deal, to minimize risk. At the same time, if Vancouver was already willing to go up to $7M on a seven-year deal, it’s tough to see it being worthwhile for Lindholm to take a six-year deal.

The cap hit would need to be substantially higher on a six-year deal to bring the same total dollars as a seven-year deal. If he didn’t take a $7M x 7 deal, he’d need to be able to secure above an $8 million cap hit on a six-year deal to even just equate to the same $49 million total value. With most comps above only having him hovering around the $7M mark for a six-year deal as well though, it’s unlikely we see this play out.

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5 YEARS

A five-year deal is even less likely for Lindholm.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $88M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Elias Lindholm	30	2024	16-48 75GP	22-56 818GP	19-52
David Backes	32	2016	22-47 79GP	23-52 727GP	23-50	$6.00M 5 years	$7.23M 5 years	1.45	$7.52M 5 years
*Adam Henrique	29	2019	24-51 81GP	23-47 512GP	24-49	$5.85M 5 years	$6.32M 5 years	1.29	$6.71M 5 years
Andrew Copp	28	2022	24-60 72GP	14-34 483GP	19-47	$5.63M 5 years	$6.01M 5 years	1.28	$6.65M 5 years
J.T. Compher	28	2023	17-52 82GP	17-38 423GP	17-45	$5.10M 5 years	$5.37M 5 years	1.19	$6.21M 5 years
Ryan Strome	29	2022	23-60 74GP	17-47 621GP	20-54	$5.00M 5 years	$5.33M 5 years	0.99	$5.13M 5 years

That said, there are some comps above with very similar production, who signed around the same age. Still, a five-year contract would mean Lindholm is losing out on a ton of money compared to a seven/eight-year deal, and the comps above really don’t project a higher cap hit based on less term, either. So while there are comps for it, it’s just unrealistic to think Lindholm would pass up on offers at seven and eight years, then end up taking a five-year contract instead (given he’ll almost surely be offered more term from other teams in free agency as well).

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1 YEAR

There are very few comps that would suggest Lindholm signs a deal in the range of two, three, or four years. That said, there’s always the possibility he could opt for a one-year contract instead. We’ve seen it become a little more popular in recent years, where a player takes a short deal to play in a situation where they may be able to build up their value, before re-entering the market to cash in with a bigger deal later.

Given Lindholm is coming off a year where his production took a major hit, it’s not completely unrealistic.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Cap Hit	On $88M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Elias Lindholm	30	2024	16-48 75GP	22-56 818GP	19-52
Wayne Simmonds	31	2019	18-31 79GP	24-46 841GP	21-39	$5.00M 1 year	$5.40M 1 year	1.38	$7.18M 1 year
Taylor Hall	29	2020	20-66 65GP	29-74 627GP	25-70	$8.00M 1 year	$8.64M 1 year	1.23	$6.40M 1 year
Jason Zucker	31	2023	28-50 78GP	24-44 628GP	26-47	$5.30M 1 year	$5.59M 1 year	1.19	$6.19M 1 year
Tyler Bertuzzi	28	2023	13-49 326GP	23-55 326GP	18-52	$5.00M 1 year	$5.27M 1 year	1.01	$5.25M 1 year
Vladimir Tarasenko	32	2023	21-59 69GP	33-70 675GP	27-65	$5.00M 1 year	$5.27M 1 year	0.81	$4.21M 1 year

Still, any possible one-year deal would leave Lindholm re-entering the market one year further into his 30s, which isn’t going to help the chances of getting a long-term deal later. It could also draw huge parallels to the nightmare scenario that played out for John Klingberg, where he may have lost out on tens of millions of dollars. Klingberg reportedly turned down a long-term extension with the Dallas Stars, opting instead for a one-year deal, where his value completely tanked in Anaheim.

So while we could always see Lindholm go this route, it would come with substantial risk.

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Projection

If Lindholm did receive an offer for eight years from the Flames in the range of between $8M and $9M per year, turning it down means he’s set to lose out on a ton of money.

Given his status as the top free agent center on the market, Lindholm can likely still get a maximum term deal, but his cap hit is much more likely to come in around the $7 million mark that the Canucks were reportedly willing to go to.

Term	Projected Cap Hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
7/8 Years	$7.14M	$7.50M	$6.50M

A five or six-year deal remains unlikely, given comparables would still only have his projected cap hit around the same range as a seven or eight-year deal. As a result, assuming Lindholm gets offers for seven years on July 1, there’s no reason to take a five/six-year deal.

Term	Projected Cap Hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
5/6 Years	$7.00M	$7.50M	$6.50M

One-year deals have become more popular for UFAs over the last few years, and while Lindholm could always do this to build his value after a down year, it would be an extremely risky decision.

Term	Projected Cap Hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
1 Year	$7.00M	$7.50M	$6.50M