After missing most of the 2023-24 season, what kind of deal could Arvidsson get in free agency?
Player Overview
Beginning his NHL career in Nashville, Arvidsson became a mainstay within the Predators, spending parts of seven seasons with the team. After becoming a lineup regular in 2015-16, Arvidsson exploded in the years that followed, managing a pace of 36 goals and 65 points per 82 games between the 2016-17 and 2018-19 seasons.
However, the winger fell into some injury trouble, and saw his play decline over the following two seasons. By the summer of 2021, he was dealt to the Los Angeles Kings, in exchange for a second and third-round pick.
The change of scenery helped, and Arvidsson was able to revitalize his career in Los Angeles. Between the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, the winger managed a pace of 26 goals and 62 points per 82, across 143 games.
But as has been the case through a lot of his career, injury trouble struck again for Arvidsson. He ended up missing the majority of this past season, getting into just 18 regular season games (and five playoff games). While he did produce at a high rate over the limited sample size, scoring 15 points over those 18 games, staying healthy remains the concern with the forward.
When on the ice though, Arvidsson can be a very versatile winger. He plays with a lot of urgency in his game, and can be effective in using his speed to chase down pucks. Arvidsson still has very good offensive upside as well, with good hands, and a quick release on his shot. While he may not be the biggest player, he brings enough with his game – both with the puck, and away from the puck – to continue to be a top-nine, or even top-six forward.
What We Know
- Arvidsson is expected to test free agency, per Travis Yost.
- Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli noted Arvidsson has been on the radar of the Edmonton Oilers.
- There is a lot of interest in Arvidsson around the league, according to Elliotte Friedman.
Comparables
Below, we take a look at what Arvidsson’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.
With Arvidsson now 31 years old, the comparables used will generally be forwards who were near his age at the time of signing. Due to Arvidsson playing a minimal number of games this season, his stats from the current season, along with the 2022-23 season were combined for his signing year stats in the tables below.
For readers using mobile view, the table below allows for horizontal scrolling.
4 YEARS
Especially given Arvidsson’s injury history, a four-year deal is far-fetched, but is likely the maximum term we could possibly see for Arvidsson’s deal.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $88M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Viktor Arvidsson | 31 | 2024 | 28-64 95GP | 27-54 546GP | 28-59 | ||||
| *Max Pacioretty | 31 | 2019 | 22-47 64GP | 30-59 626GP | 26-53 | $7.00M 4 years | $7.56M 4 years | 1.43 | $8.41M 4 years |
| Kyle Palmieri | 30 | 2021 | 16-34 51GP | 25-48 612GP | 21-41 | $5.00M 4 years | $5.40M 4 years | 1.32 | $7.79M 4 years |
| Alexander Steen | 33 | 2017 | 21-64 67GP | 22-53 746GP | 22-59 | $5.75M 4 years | $6.75M 4 years | 1.14 | $6.75M 4 years |
| Mikael Granlund | 29 | 2021 | 21-43 51GP | 17-53 591GP | 19-48 | $5.00M 4 years | $5.40M 4 years | 1.13 | $6.67M 4 years |
| Mathieu Perreault | 29 | 2017 | 10-47 71GP | 18-41 361GP | 18-44 | $4.13M 4 years | $4.85M 4 years | 1.10 | $6.49M 4 years |
| Gustav Nyquist | 30 | 2019 | 22-61 81GP | 21-50 500GP | 22-56 | $5.50M 4 years | $5.94M 4 years | 1.06 | $6.26M 4 years |
| Taylor Hall | 30 | 2021 | 15-51 53GP | 27-72 680GP | 21-62 | $6.00M 4 years | $6.48M 4 years | 1.04 | $6.14M 4 years |
| Evander Kane | 31 | 2022 | 42-74 43GP | 29-55 812GP | 36-65 | $5.13M 4 years | $5.47M 4 years | 0.84 | $4.96M 4 years |
| David Perron | 30 | 2018 | 19-77 70GP | 20-50 722GP | 20-64 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.43M 4 years | 0.69 | $4.08M 4 years |
Taking out the David Perron and Max Pacioretty outliers, the other seven comps would have Arvidsson between about $5M and $7.8M. Of those comps, five of the seven would project Arvidsson between $6.15M on the low end, and $6.75M on the high end.
At the same time, based on Arvidsson’s injury history, he seems likely to come in on the low end of this range if he signed for four years. Plus, looking at the actual cap hits associated with the comps, most of them fall between $5M and $6M. So even though the huge majority of comps would have Arvidsson above $6M, this is a unique situation where it’s probably likely to see him below that mark, possibly around the Evander Kane projection.
Again, a four-year deal is very unlikely for Arvidsson, but in the low chance it happened, it’s more likely to come in on the low end of projections, given his injury track record.
3 YEARS
A three-year deal is maybe a little more realistic for Arvidsson, but could still carry too much risk for many teams.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $88M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Viktor Arvidsson | 31 | 2024 | 28-64 95GP | 27-54 546GP | 28-59 | ||||
| Reilly Smith | 31 | 2022 | 23-56 56GP | 21-50 686GP | 22-53 | $5.00M 3 years | $5.33M 3 years | 1.01 | $5.93M 3 years |
| Evgenii Dadonov | 31 | 2020 | 30-56 69GP | 27-59 280GP | 29-58 | $5.00M 3 years | $5.40M 3 years | 0.93 | $5.49M 3 years |
| *Nino Niederreiter | 32 | 2024 | 25-46 99GP | 20-41 756GP | 23-44 | $4.00M 3 years | $4.00M 3 years | 0.91 | $5.36M 3 years |
| *Ryan Hartman | 30 | 2024 | 21-51 59GP | 17-38 506GP | 19-45 | $4.00M 3 years | $4.00M 3 years | 0.89 | $5.24M 3 years |
| Mike Hoffman | 32 | 2021 | 27-57 82GP | 28-59 545GP | 28-58 | $4.50M 3 years | $4.86M 3 years | 0.84 | $4.94M 3 years |
With the limited comps though, we do see a very defined range of what we can expect Arvidsson to make, ranging between roughly $5M and $6M on a three-year deal. For both Dadonov and Hoffman, they also had extremely similar production to Arvidsson, which provides a really solid idea of what the winger is worth.
Four of the five comps do have Arvidsson at $5.5M or below though, pointing to the fact he’d be on the lower side of this range. Plus, looking at both the actual and adjusted cap hits of the deals signed, all are also below the $5.5M mark, giving us a good idea that any three-year deal for Arvidsson is likely coming in between a $5M on the low end and $5.5M on the high end.
2 YEARS
Two years is possibly more realistic for what we can expect Arvidsson to receive. Typically, two-year deals would be seen for players a little later into their 30s, when teams are less willing to give term to an aging player, but it remains possible given potential injury concerns.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $88M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Viktor Arvidsson | 31 | 2024 | 28-64 95GP | 27-54 546GP | 28-59 | ||||
| Andreas Athanasiou | 29 | 2023 | 20-40 81GP | 22-42 459GP | 21-41 | $4.25M 2 years | $4.48M 2 years | 1.09 | $6.45M 2 years |
| Marcus Johansson | 29 | 2019 | 18-42 58GP | 17-47 588GP | 18-45 | $4.50M 2 years | $4.86M 2 years | 1.08 | $6.37M 2 years |
| Tomas Tatar | 31 | 2021 | 16-49 50GP | 23-49 625GP | 20-49 | $4.50M 2 years | $4.86M 2 years | 0.99 | $5.85M 2 years |
With the limited comps, they do have a higher projection for Arvidsson than the projections for a possible three-year deal. This could be attributed to teams preferring to avoid giving term to a player of Arvidsson’s age, and they may be willing to raise the cap hit on a two-year deal as a result.
Of the projections though, while the Andreas Athanasiou deal would have Arvidsson at nearly $6.5M per year, that’s likely unrealistic. Athanasiou was pretty obviously overpaid on his deal, given the Chicago Blackhawks weren’t in a position to contend, so cap space on short-term deals really didn’t matter much. As a result, we can expect Arvidsson to be lower than that mark.
The Tomas Tatar contract is the best look we have at a possible two-year deal. Tatar was the same age at the time of signing, and also had the most comparable production to Arvidsson of the comps for two-year deals. The actual cap hits of the comps do all fall below the $5M range, pointing to the idea that maybe Arvidsson’s number comes down a little bit from $5.85M projection from the Tatar deal, but all signs would still project him well above $5M.
1 YEAR
Given Arvidsson’s limited number of games played, a one-year deal is a realistic scenario for the forward.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $88M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Viktor Arvidsson | 31 | 2024 | 28-64 95GP | 27-54 546GP | 28-59 | ||||
| Wayne Simmonds | 31 | 2019 | 18-31 79GP | 24-46 841GP | 21-39 | $5.00M 1 year | $5.40M 1 year | 1.38 | $8.17M 1 year |
| Taylor Hall | 29 | 2020 | 20-66 65GP | 29-74 627GP | 25-70 | $8.00M 1 year | $8.64M 1 year | 1.23 | $7.28M 1 year |
| Jason Zucker | 31 | 2023 | 28-50 78GP | 24-44 628GP | 26-47 | $5.30M 1 year | $5.59M 1 year | 1.19 | $6.65M 1 year |
| Tyler Bertuzzi | 28 | 2023 | 13-49 326GP | 23-55 326GP | 18-52 | $5.50M 1 year | $5.80M 1 year | 1.11 | $6.55M 1 year |
| Vladimir Tarasenko | 32 | 2023 | 21-59 69GP | 33-70 675GP | 27-65 | $5.00M 1 year | $5.27M 1 year | 0.81 | $4.78M 1 year |
| Mike Hoffman | 31 | 2020 | 34-70 69GP | 29-60 493GP | 32-65 | $4.00M 1 year | $4.32M 1 year | 0.66 | $3.92M 1 year |
In terms of the comps though, they’re a litte bit all over the place, projecting Arvidsson’s deal anywhere from $3.9M to $8.2M. Even removing the two far outliers in the deals for Wayne Simmonds and Mike Hoffman, it’s still a wide range of $4.8M to $7.3M.
Looking at the actual cap hits of the recent one-year deals though, and we see a bit of a trend, where payment rate matters a little less. With a one-year deal, the commitment is small for both the player and team, so it’s a little more difficult to predict a one-year pact than a longer deal. You could see Arvidsson sign somewhere on a cheaper deal to build up his value after an injury-plagued year to cash in for 2025, or could instead see a team willing to overpay the forward, given it’s only a one-year pact.
Still, with most of the recent comps, we do see a trend of somewhere in the $5M range. Most of the comps would project Arvidsson a little higher than that based on payment rate, but somewhere in the general range, between the $5M and $6M mark, is realistic.
The other possibility would be a deal carrying performance bonuses. We saw this last summer with the likes of Max Pacioretty and Connor Brown, who each played less than 10 regular season games in their signing year due to injuries. Each player took a deal with a lower cap hit, but performance bonuses resulting in a higher AAV. The bonuses would likely be tied to games played totals.
That said, in both the cases of Brown and Pacioretty, the AAV still landed at $4 million, on a lower salary cap. So even in this scenario, while Arvidsson could end up with a lower cap hit, the AAV still likely ends up around that $5 million range.
Projection
A one or two-year deal could be likely for Arvidsson, given his injury history.
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 1 Year | $5.00M | $6.00M | $5.00M |
| 2 Years | $5.50M | $6.50M | $5.50M |
If Arvidsson did get more term on his contract, a deal at three years or four years would be the next most likely option.
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 3 Years | $5.00M | $5.50M | $5.00M |
| 4 Years | $5.00M | $6.00M | $5.00M |
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