With the Hurricanes facing a difficult offseason, Skjei has likely priced himself out of Carolina.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

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Player Overview

After being selected by the New York Rangers in the first round of the 2012 NHL Draft, Skjei made a full-time jump to the NHL for the 2016-17 season. The defenseman had an excellent rookie year, receiving Calder Trophy votes, but did see somewhat of a dip in his play during the years that followed. Then in 2020, Skjei was dealt to the Carolina Hurricanes for a first-round pick.

The defender took on a top-four role with the Hurricanes, and after somewhat of a slow 2021 season, Skjei rebounded to be a very important part of the team’s defense group over the last three years. Skjei has a really well-rounded game with a consistent work ethic and is generally very sound defensively. While he can still be prone to a bad mistake at times, those have seemed to come much less often over the last few years.

The defenseman plays a physical game and can be very effective in battles, but has also been able to contribute offensively. While he doesn’t have the speed or control to move a ton with the puck, he has a powerful and accurate shot and can get into good spots to take a pass, once his team is set up in the offensive zone. Over the last three seasons, Skjei has produced at a strong rate of 13 goals and 42 points per 82 games.

There should be a bit of caution from a team signing Skjei just in terms of his deployment, though. While Skjei’s been very good for a number of years, he’s also benefitted from having Jaccob Slavin as the other left-handed defenseman in the Hurricanes’ top-four group, to help split responsibilities in terms of facing tough matchups. So while a team may look to use Skjei in a larger role, he may work best in a defense group that already contains some established pieces.

Regardless, if Skjei does make it to July 1 unsigned, he’ll be the top left-handed UFA defenseman available.

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What We Know

• Following the season, Skjei said there had not been much negotiating with the Hurricanes on a new contract, but that he was likely just looking for a ‘fair offer’, per The Hockey News.
• Elliotte Friedman had noted the Hurricanes looked at different deals for Skjei, with the possibility of a contract with lower term, but a higher cap hit.

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Comparables

Below, we take a look at what Skjei’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, visit the About the Site page.

With Skjei being 30 years old heading into free agency, comparables were generally kept to defensemen who were between 28 and 32 years old by Dec. 31 of the first year of their contract. Comparables were for the most part kept to players who signed for a deal worth at least a $4 million cap hit.

For readers using mobile view, a side-to-side scrolling option is available for all tables below.

8 YEARS

An eight-year deal is unlikely for Skjei. Carolina would be the only team eligible to sign him to this length of deal, while the defenseman being 30 years old limits the likelihood of this anyways.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88M Cap
Brady Skjei	30	2024	48 80GP	33 609GP	21:17	20:38
*Oliver Ekman-Larsson	28	2019	42 82GP	41 576GP	23:41	23:39	$8.25M 8 years	$8.91M 8 years
John Carlson	28	2018	68 82GP	45 608GP	24:47	23:00	$8.00M 8 years	$8.86M 8 years
*Brent Seabrook	31	2016	31 82GP	34 763GP	22:11	22:29	$6.88M 8 years	$8.29M 8 years
**Morgan Rielly	28	2022	51 63GP	44 580GP	23:43	21:53	$7.50M 8 years	$8.00M 8 years
*Marc-Edouard Vlasic	31	2018	31 75GP	26 812GP	21:14	22:01	$7.00M 8 years	$7.75M 8 years
**Noah Hanifin	27	2024	47 77GP	34 675GP	23:37	20:29	$7.35M 8 years	$7.35M 8 years
Filip Hronek	27	2024	49 81GP	43 390GP	23:26	22:32	$7.25M 8 years	$7.25M 8 years
*Colton Parayko	29	2022	31 32GP	34 418GP	21:20	21:43	$6.50M 8 years	$6.93M 8 years
**Hampus Lindholm	28	2022	30 61GP	31 589GP	22:32	22:11	$6.50M 8 years	$6.93M 8 years
*Ryan Ellis	28	2019	60 44GP	36 396GP	23:31	19:36	$6.25M 8 years	$6.75M 8 years
*MacKenzie Weeger	29	2023	45 80GP	32 306GP	23:22	19:33	$6.25M 8 years	$6.59M 8 years
Damon Severson	29	2023	33 81GP	33 647GP	19:57	21:11	$6.25M 8 years	$6.59M 8 years
*Ryan Pulock	28	2022	25 56GP	35 290GP	22:27	21:03	$6.15M 8 years	$6.56M 8 years
**Gustav Forsling	28	2024	42 63GP	33 397GP	21:48	20:27	$5.75M 8 years	$5.75M 8 years

If Skjei was to sign for eight years though, looking at the comps, his ice time is likely what holds him back from a bigger contract. While his production is very competitive against the other comps, he has lower ice time than most.

Right off the bat, his numbers are lower than Oliver Ekman-Larsson and John Carlson (other than only signing year production versus Ekman-Larson), putting him below their value. Then while he did have better signing year production than Brent Seabrook and comparable career production, Seabrook’s ice time was higher and most importantly, he was coming off three Stanley Cup wins in only about a half-decade stretch, which certainly inflated his contract. Morgan Rielly would be the last of the comparables at an $8M adjusted cap hit or above, and Skjei comes in below Rielly in every single category as well.

With the Marc-Edouard Vlasic contract, we see the first deal where there’s a case Skjei brings more value. He had higher production, and while his career ice time was lower, his signing year ice time was similar. That said, the Noah Hanifin deal provides a pretty clear, recent look to show that Skjei’s value should be below that mark. Hanifin had incredibly similar production and career ice time, but had a much bigger role in his signing year. Plus, Hanifin was three years younger than Skjei at the time of signing, showing that Skjei’s value should be close, but not quite at the level as Hanifin’s $7.35M cap hit. The recent Filip Hronek projection would also have him below that mark.

That said, there are two other comps just below that would justify Skjei right around the $7M mark. While Colton Parayko and Hampus Lindholm may have had similar career production and comparable (or even better) ice time, Skjei had much higher signing year production. Those two deals adjust to a $6.9M cap hit on an eight-year deal, and point to the fact that Skjei could be around that range, or above.

There are two deals that could point to a slightly lower cap hit though, in Ryan Ellis ($6.75M adjusted cap hit) and MacKenzie Weegar ($6.6M adjusted cap hit). That said, both Ellis and Weegar were both coming off an outlier signing year compared to their career numbers, but also had about half the career experience to Skjei. While Skjei being older could prevent him from cracking the $7M mark, it’s a fairly safe bet that if he didn’t hit that mark, he’d be very close.

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7 YEARS

Seven years would be the maximum term for Skjei if he hits July 1.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88M Cap
Brady Skjei	30	2024	48 80GP	33 609GP	21:17	20:38
Dougie Hamilton	28	2021	63 55GP	46 607GP	22:43	20:27	$9.00M 7 years	$9.71M 7 years
Alex Pietrangelo	30	2020	61 70GP	49 758GP	24:11	24:38	$8.80M 7 years	$9.50M 7 years
*Jared Spurgeon	31	2020	43 82GP	35 591GP	24:09	22:21	$7.58M 7 years	$8.18M 7 years
Keith Yandle	30	2016	47 82GP	46 661GP	19:58	21:10	$6.35M 7 years	$7.65M 7 years
***Johnny Boychuk	31	2015	44 59GP	23 380GP	21:38	20:22	$6.00M 7 years	$7.39M 7 years
*Ryan McDonagh	30	2019	38 63GP	37 530GP	23:20	23:30	$6.75M 7 years	$7.29M 7 years
**Devon Toews	30	2024	52 81GP	48 315GP	25:06	23:01	$7.25M 7 years	$7.25M 7 years
*Justin Faulk	28	2019	35 82GP	38 559GP	22:25	23:16	$6.50M 7 years	$7.02M 7 years
Torey Krug	29	2020	66 61GP	66 61GP	20:29	20:19	$6.50M 7 years	$7.02M 7 years
*Jonas Brodin	28	2021	33 69GP	22 555GP	21:33	21:50	$6.00M 7 years	$6.48M 7 years
Scott Mayfield	31	2023	24 82GP	21 428GP	21:01	19:12	$3.50M 7 ears	$3.69M 7 years

His numbers don’t compare well to either of Douge Hamilton or Alex Pietrangelo at the top of the table, while much lower usage than Jared Spurgeon should put him below the $8M mark. At the same time, at the bottom of the table, Skjei’s numbers would put him above Jonas Brodin (and Scott Mayfield).

The biggest thing with most of remaining six comps between Keith Yandle ($7.65M adjusted cap hit) and Torey Krug ($7M adjusted cap hit), would be that Skjei still has lower usage than pretty much every single player. Then even with with Yandle and Torey Krug, while Skjei had more comparable ice time, he had much lower production either in his signing year, over his career, or both.

The Johnny Boychuk deal is the one comp though where Skjei’s stats look better in comparison. The signing year numbers are similar, as is the usage, but Skjei had the better career production and was also a year younger.

At the same time, while Skjei may have had better signing year production than Colton Parayko and Ryan McDonagh, he had slightly lower career production, but also much lower usage. Plus, the Devon Toews contract puts Skjei pretty definitively below this range of deals. So like the eight-year contract comparables, while Skjei could certainly get close to the $7M mark, some signs would point to him being a little below.

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6 YEARS

Six-year deals for defensemen nearing 30 years old really haven’t been common over recent history. It’s maybe a little more possible of a term for Skjei though, given teams may not be willing to offer seven years based on him already being 30 years old.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88M Cap
Brady Skjei	30	2024	48 80GP	33 609GP	21:17	20:38
**Nate Schmidt	28	2019	39 84GP	24 284GP	22:14	18:08	$5.95M 6 years	$6.42M 6 years
Ryan Graves	28	2023	27 78GP	27 302GP	19:57	18:59	$4.50M 6 years	$4.74M 6 years

That said, usinrg the two comps we have, Skjei would come in above the adjusted cap hit of either Nate Schmidt or Ryan Graves.

Skjei may be a little closer to Schmidt statistically, but given the higher production, and higher career time on ice, Skjei would likely be well above Schmidt’s $6.4M adjusted cap hit. We could also expect that in the scenario Skjei ends up with a six-year deal rather than a maximum-term contract, there’s a good chance it means a higher cap hit than if he took a seven/eight-year deal, based on less risk for the signing team.

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5 YEARS

At five years, we’re verging into less likely possible lengths for Skjei’s contract.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88M Cap
Brady Skjei	30	2024	48 80GP	33 609GP	21:17	20:38
*Dustin Byfuglien	31	2016	50 52GP	48 649GP	24:14	20:53	$7.60M 5 years	$9.16M 5 years
Alex Goligoski	31	2016	37 82GP	40 562GP	23:50	22:37	$5.45M 5 years	$6.57M 5 years
Tyler Myers	29	2019	32 80GP	34 635GP	20:21	22:22	$6.00M 5 years	$6.48M 5 years
*Rasmus Ristolainen	28	2022	23 50GP	36 592GP	21:26	23:37	$5.10M 5 years	$5.44M 5 years
Karl Alzner	29	2017	13 82GP	16 591GP	19:47	20:12	$4.63M 5 years	$5.43M 5 years
Jason Demers	28	2016	30 62GP	28 423GP	20:52	18:44	$4.50M 5 years	$5.42M 5 years
Jamie Oleksiak	29	2021	21 56GP	16 369GP	20:29	16:09	$4.60M 5 years	$4.97M 5 years
Jack Johnson	31	2018	12 77GP	29 788GP	19:33	22:52	$3.25M 5 years	$3.60M 5 years

Based on the comps, he’s pretty clear above any of Jack Johnson, Jamie Oleksiak, Jason Demers and Karl Alzner. While Rasmus Ristolainen may have had higher career ice time and comparable signing year production and ice time, Skjei had the much better signing year production. Plus, with Skjei being statistically much better than Alzner and Demers, who carry a near identical adjusted cap hit to Ristolainen’s deal, it’s clear Skjei’s value is much higher than this range.

On the flip side, Skjei is a ways lower than Dustin Byfuglien’s numbers. As a result two of the best comps for a five-year deal would be Alex Goligoski and Tyler Myers. Compared to both defensemen, Skjei’s career production was fairly similar, and while both Goligoski and Myers both had higher career ice time, Skjei’s signing year ice time ranked in the middle of the two defensemen, and his signing year ice time was much higher.

Especially with Myers being the more recent comp at a $6.5M adjusted cap hit, Skjei could be a little bit above that mark.

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4 YEARS

Four years is a fairly unrealistic length for Skjei’s deal. Looking at most of the comps who signed a deal at this length, Skjei’s numbers are quite a bit better.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88M Cap
Brady Skjei	30	2024	48 80GP	33 609GP	21:17	20:38
Kevin Shattenkirk	28	2017	57 80GP	50 480GP	19:56	21:06	$6.65M 4 years	$7.80M 4 years
*Mattias Ekholm	32	2022	39 48GP	31 586GP	22:52	21:36	$6.25M 4 years	$6.67M 4 years
*Jared Spurgeon	27	2016	44 32GP	30 307GP	22:18	21:01	$5.19M 4 years	$6.26M 4 years
*Jake Muzzin	31	2020	35 52GP	36 578GP	21:36	21:15	$5.63M 4 years	$6.08M 4 years
T.J. Brodie	30	2021	24 64GP	34 634GP	20:27	22:35	$5.00M 4 years	$5.40M 4 years
Brendan Smith	28	2017	14 51GP	19 309GP	19:15	18:01	$4.35M 4 years	$5.10M 4 years
Ben Chiarot	31	2022	29 76GP	20 489GP	22:51	18:38	$4.75M 4 years	$5.07M 4 years
Chris Tanev	31	2020	24 69GP	19 514GP	19:32	19:44	$4.50M 4 years	$4.86M 4 years
Josh Manson	31	2022	20 67GP	21 475GP	18:59	19:44	$4.50M 4 years	$4.80M 4 years
*Artem Zub	28	2023	22 95GP	23 142GP	21:11	20:15	$4.50M 4 years	$4.74M 4 years
Kris Russell	30	2017	16 67GP	24 641GP	20:17	19:24	$4.00M 4 years	$4.69M 4 years
Connor Murphy	29	2022	25 50GP	18 494GP	22:09	19:06	$4.40M 4 years	$4.69M 4 years
Jake Gardiner	29	2019	40 62GP	36 551GP	21:13	21:21	$4.05M 4 years	$4.37M 4 years
Adam Larsson	29	2021	15 56GP	19 603GP	19:39	20:42	$4.00M 4 years	$4.32M 4 years
**Jake McCabe	28	2021	17 79GP	18 353GP	18:38	19:15	$4.00M 4 years	$4.32M 4 years
Nick Leddy	31	2022	26 75GP	35 851GP	21:25	20:37	$4.00M 4 years	$4.27M 4 years
Brenden Dillon	30	2020	17 69GP	16 598GP	19:27	18:34	$3.90M 4 years	$4.21M 4 years

Really, the only two players that pose a realistic comparable are Kevin Shattenkirk and Mattias Ekholm. While Shattenkirk’s production was higher and Skjei wouldn’t get close to the $7.8M adjusted cap hit from the deal, Skjei does compare quite well to Ekholm’s numbers.

Ekholm and Skjei had similar career production, and though Ekholm had more ice time, Skjei’s signing year production was higher. Skjei is also two years younger than Ekholm was in the first year of his deal, pointing to the fact that Skjei could be a little higher than Ekolm’s $6.7M adjusted cap hit, in the unlikely event he signed a four-year deal.

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1-3 YEARS

A deal between one and three years is the least likely term for Skjei’s contract. He’d be sacrificing a lot of security, and it’s clear he’ll be offered a longer-term contract.

In terms of comparables for three years deals though, there are a couple available.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88M Cap
Brady Skjei	30	2024	48 80GP	33 609GP	21:17	20:38
Mike Green	30	2015	51 72GP	51 575GP	19:06	22:11	$6.00M 3 years	$7.39M 3 years
Justin Schultz	27	2017	54 78GP	38 344GP	20:27	21:21	$5.50M 3 years	$6.45M 3 years
Tyson Barrie	30	2021	70 56GP	53 610GP	21:24	21:45	$4.50M 3 years	$4.88M 3 years

While the comps were all primarily offensive defensemen, the Mike Green/Justin Schultz deals could at least provide a bit of a range, with similar usage (even if production didn’t align). Again though, there’s very little reasoning for Skjei to take this kind of a deal, unless he had a very specific destination in mind, where this was the longest deal he could get.

However, in terms of a possible two-year contract: of the really short-term deals, this may be the only possible scenario for Skjei. We saw two cases last summer where a defenseman of a similar age signed a shorter deal than expected, but at a higher cap hit.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88M Cap
Brady Skjei	30	2024	48 80GP	33 609GP	21:17	20:38
Dmitry Orlov	32	2023	45 66GP	32 709GP	22:33	20:15	$7.75M 2 years	$8.17M 2 years
Vladislav Gavrikov	28	2023	22 72GP	24 276GP	21:58	20:48	$5.88M 2 years	$6.20M 2 years

Of the two defensemen, Skjei actually aligns very closely to fellow Carolina Hurricane Dmitry Orlov. Perhaps if Skjei could get near Orlov’s $8.2M adjusted cap hit, it may actually be worthwhile to take a short-term deal at a higher cap hit, then re-enter the market at 32 years old in 2026.

The last option would be a one-year deal. We’ve seen players go this route and really impact their potential earnings (like John Klingberg), and with Skjei coming off a great year, and being set for a new deal with a rising cap at 30 years old, it would be fairly nonsensical to opt for a one-year contract.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88M Cap
Brady Skjei	30	2024	48 80GP	33 609GP	21:17	20:38
John Klingberg	30	2022	52 74GP	56 552GP	22:13	22:59	$7.00M 1 year	$7.47M 1 year
Matt Dumba	30	2023	15 79GP	32 598GP	21:17	20:37	$3.90M 1 year	$4.11M 1 year
Tyson Barrie	29	2020	46 70GP	51 554GP	21:53	21:47	$3.75M 1 year	$4.05M 1 year

Unlike two-year deals though, generally when each of the comps above took a one-year deal, they didn’t receive a cap hit above market value for doing so.

Still, based on the comps, Skjei would align closest to Klingberg. Though Skjei’s value would still be below Klingberg’s was when the defenseman signed with Anaheim in 2022, you have to imagine as in the case of a possible two-year deal, Skjei would probably only go this route if it resulted in a high cap hit than he was offered on a longer-term deal.

So while Skjei may not be at Klingberg’s $7.5 adjusted cap hit, a $7M range would still be projected for a one-year deal, in the case he thought he could get himself into a good situation for the 2024-25 season, giving him the opportunity for an even bigger payday in 2025. Still, it’s a very low percentage chance.

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Projection

The most likely term for Skjei’s deal remains six or seven years, likely with a slightly higher cap hit on a six-year deal than a seven-year deal.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
7/8 Years	$6.75M	$7.25M	$6.50M
6 Years	$7.00M	$7.50M	$6.50M

If Skjei took a deal at four or five years, a $7M cap hit would still be projected.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
4/5 Years	$7.00M	$7.25M	$6.50M

If, for whatever reason, Skjei took a short-term deal, a two-year contract at an inflated cap hit would be the most likely scenario.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
3 Years	$7.00M	$7.50M	$6.50M
2 Years	$8.00M	$8.25M	$7.50M
1 Year	$7.00M	$7.50M	$6.50M