After a great first season in Vancouver, Hronek is set to remain with the team on a long-term deal.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Final Analysis

The Vancouver Canucks announced on Tuesday that they’ve signed defenseman Filip Hronek to an eight-year contract extension, carrying a $7.25 million cap hit. The deal also carries trade protection, with a no-movement clause kicking in for the 2025-26 season, before it becomes a 15-team no-trade clause in 2028.

While all of our designated Top-50 Free Agents will get a projection article throughout June/July, Hronek signed his deal before the projection was released. So instead, we’ll take a look at comparable contracts to evaluate how the deal looks for the Canucks, and whether it carries fair value.

Player Overview

Originally a second-round pick by the Detroit Red Wings in 2016, Hronek remained as part of the organization for roughly seven years. After splitting the 2018-19 season between the NHL and AHL, the defenseman made the full-time jump to the Red Wings roster for the 2019-20 season. With the Red Wings, Hronek established himself as a top-four defenseman with solid offensive upside.

However, with the Red Wings on the outside of the playoff race in 2022-23, the team opted to deal Hronek to the Vancouver Canucks for first and second-round picks in 2023.

With Vancouver, Hronek arguably found another level to his game. Playing on a top-pairing with Quinn Hughes, Hronek’s first year with the Canucks went as well as anyone could’ve hoped for, with the defenseman setting a career-high in points (48) and plus-minus (+33).

While he did slow down in the back half of the season after an outstanding start, turning just 27 years old this year, Hronek is poised to be a pillar on the Canucks’ blue line for the forseeable future.

What We Know

• Per Rick Dhaliwal, Hronek had been asking for $8 million per year on his contract.

Comparables

Below, we take a look at how Hronek’s deal compares to those of other defenders who signed eight-year contracts. With Hronek turning 27 years old in November, comparables were generally kept to defensemen who were between 25 and 29 years old by Dec. 31 of the first year of their contract.

For readers using mobile view, the table below allows for horizontal scrolling.

The first question to look at would be whether an eight-year deal for Hronek is justified. With a maximum-term extension in place, the Canucks are committing a massive amount of money, and there’s inherent risk in any deal for that length.

But looking at the comps, Hronek’s production, ice time, and career experience all pointed to the fact that he’d be lined up for an eight-year contract, based on the stats of other players who have signed for eight years around the same age (as seen above). We’ve seen other players sign for eight years with less career games played, lower production and lower ice time. Plus with Hronek turning just 27 years old in the first year of his contract, the defenseman is a prime age for an eight-year deal.

In fact, with his numbers, it would’ve actually been much more surprising if he took a deal for any less term. We’ve seen infrequent examples of mid/late-20s defenders with high-end stats taking shorter deals, such as Jacob Trouba signing for seven years in New York, or Zach Werenski extending for six years in Columbus. But generally, once a player with Hronek’s stats gets to within a year of their UFA status, they’re lined up for maximum term. So unless the defenseman didn’t intend to stay in Vancouver long-term and opted for a one or two-year deal to walk to unrestricted free agency, an eight-year deal was the likely outcome for Hronek.

Perhaps the bigger question is more about the cap hit, rather than the term. On the high end of the comps above, Hronek obviously doesn’t compare to Erik Karlsson’s $12.4M adjusted cap, but on the low side, he looks better statistically than every defender from MacKenzie Weegar and below. This puts Hronek’s value in a broad range of about $6.75M on the low end (from the Ryan Ellis comp), up to $10.1M on the high end (from the Seth Jones and Charlie McAvoy comps).

Using the 12 comps between that range, we can get a bit more specific in terms of what Hronek’s expected value would be.

On the low end of that range, while Ryan Ellis ($6.75M adjusted cap hit) did have high-end signing year production and played big minutes, his numbers over his career don’t compare as well to Hronek’s stats. Then factor in that Hronek had better numbers than Hampus Lindholm and Colton Parayko (each with an adjusted $6.93M cap hit) in every single category, and it’s safe to assume that Hronek’s numbers safely put his value above the $7M mark.

Comparing Hronek to Cam Fowler ($7.2M adjusted cap hit) and Noah Hanifin ($7.35M cap hit), Hronek’s numbers also have the edge. While Fowler made have had higher ice time in his signing year, Hronek had the better production. Then with Hanifin, while the defenders may have had extremely similar signing year stats, Hronek’s career numbers were quite a bit better. So signs also point to Hronek not only being above the $7M mark, but above the Fowler and Hanifin comps as well, with an expected value around a $7.5 million cap hit on the low end.

Then with Morgan Rielly at an $8 million adjusted cap hit, we get one of the best comparables available. The two defensemen had extremely similar production, both over their signing year and career, and while Rielly had the slightly higher signing year ice time, Hronek had the higher career usage. Of any of the comps, Rielly may be the closest – with a $7.5 million cap hit for the 2022-23 season on an $82.5 million salary cap, the cap hit adjusts to be $8 million on an $88 million salary cap for the coming year. So there’s a very strong argument that Hronek’s ideal value actually could’ve been around $8 million per year on an eight-year deal.

Still, there are other comps even above that mark that could’ve justified Hronek coming in even higher. While he doesn’t compare well at all to the John Carlson at his time of signing, his numbers actually look a lot closer to any of Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Victor Hedman, Darnell Nurse, Charlie McAvoy, and Seth Jones.

While both Ekman-Larsson and Jones had more usage, Hronek had slightly higher production. Then even though Nurse had the better signing year stats, Hronek had slightly better career numbers. Hronek’s production was also almost identical to McAvoy’s numbers (though the lower ice time would point to a lower value for Hronek), while Hronek’s stats were even slightly stronger than Hedman’s numbers.

That batch of comparables would lead all the way up to an adjusted $10M cap hit, and while that would seem far-fetched, the similarity between Hronek’s stats and a lot of those comps provide a legitimate argument that if Hronek had came in as high as the $9M mark, there were at least some comparables for it. That’s not to say any team should have been willing to sign Hronek to that kind of deal, just that there were players who signed deals at a much higher cap hit with very similar numbers.

Final Analysis

Hronek’s age and numbers absolutely pointed towards an eight-year deal, but it’s the cap hit where Vancouver really wins here.

There are many comparables that would have Hronek at $8M or above, even up to $9M per year. Lower career experience could’ve realistically had Hronek’s market value on the lower end of that range, but if a projection was released here prior to the deal being signed, it would’ve had an eight-year contract for Hronek projected at an $8M cap hit.

So not only is a $7.25M cap hit fair for Vancouver, but most signs point to the team getting the player for below market value.