Projecting Nikita Zadorov’s next contract

Written in

by

If the Canucks aren’t able to extend Zadorov, he’d be one of the better left-shot defensemen available.


Player Overview

At 6-foot-6 and nearly 250 pounds, Zadorov stands out on any blue line he’s been a part of.

The defenseman began his career in Buffalo after being selected 16th overall by the Sabres in 2013, but was quickly shipped to the Colorado Avalanche just two years later, as part of the Ryan O’Reilly trade. Zadorov’s tenure in Colorado marked the most time he’s spent with any team in his career, playing nearly 300 games with the team.

He bounced around a bit from there, spending a year with the Chicago Blackhawks in 2021, followed by parts of three seasons with the Calgary Flames. Then after requesting a trade out of Calgary this season, the defender was dealt to the Vancouver Canucks, with a third and fifth-round pick going back the other way.

Zadorov was a great fit in Vancouver and had an excellent playoff run with the team, but his contract demands look to be quite large, and it remains to be determined as to whether the Canucks can make a deal work. Zadorov is a physical, high-intensity blue liner with a powerful shot, and while he’s consistently only good for about 20 points per year, he can either round out a top-four group, or be very effective on a bottom pairing.


What We Know

  • Per Frank Seravalli, the Calgary Flames knew Zadorov’s asking price would be $5M per year or more, prior to the trade.
  • Zadorov’s camp reportedly rejected the Canucks’ initial offer, according to Rick Dhaliwal.
  • Per Dhaliwal, Zadorov’s agent Dan Milstein is looking for term on the contract.
  • According to Elliotte Friedman, Zadorov may be willing to take less to stay in Vancouver.
  • While it remains possible Zadorov could re-sign with Vancouver, Friedman put the odds at less than a 50 percent chance.

Comparables

Below, we take a look at what Zadorov’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, visit the About the Site page. Though Zadorov’s asking price appears to be quite high, this article will look at Zadorov’s projected value, based on other comparables.

With Zadorov being 29 years old heading into free agency, comparables were generally kept to defensemen who were between 27 and 31 years old by Dec. 31 of the first year of their contract. Comparables were generally kept to players who signed for a deal worth at least a $3 million cap hit. While Zadorov did have a strong playoffs, his stats from the 13-game playoff run aren’t factored into stats in the projections.

For readers using mobile view, a side-to-side scrolling option is available for all tables below.

8 YEARS

Zadorov would only be eligible to sign an eight-year deal with the Canucks, but based on comparables, it’s wildly unrealistic.

PlayerAgeFirst Year
of Contract
Signing
Year P/82
Career
P/82
TOI
Season
Career
TOI
ContractOn $88.0M
Cap Hit
Nikita Zadorov29202422
75GP
19
642GP
17:2618:05
*Oliver Ekman-Larsson28201942
82GP
41
576GP
23:4123:39$8.25M
8 years
$8.91M
8 years
John Carlson28201868
82GP
45
608GP
24:4723:00$8.00M
8 years
$8.86M
8 years
*Brent Seabrook31201631
82GP
34
763GP
22:1122:29$6.88M
8 years
$8.29M
8 years
**Morgan Rielly28202251
63GP
44
580GP
23:4321:53$7.50M
8 years
$8.00M
8 years
**Noah Hanifin27202447
77GP
34
675GP
23:3720:29$7.35M
8 years
$7.35M
8 years
*Cam Fowler27201840
80GP
36
494GP
24:5122:48$6.50M
8 years
$7.19M
8 years
*Colton Parayko29202231
32GP
34
418GP
21:2021:43$6.50M
8 years
$6.93M
8 years
**Hampus Lindholm28202230
61GP
31
589GP
22:3222:11$6.50M
8 years
$6.93M
8 years
*Ryan Ellis28201960
44GP
36
396GP
23:3119:36$6.25M
8 years
$6.75M
8 years
*MacKenzie Weeger29202345
80GP
32
306GP
23:2219:33$6.25M
8 years
$6.59M
8 years
*Travis Sanheim27202332
80GP
28
335GP
22:5820:18$6.25M
8 years
$6.59M
8 years
Damon Severson29202333
81GP
33
647GP
19:5721:11$6.25M
8 years
$6.59M
8 years
*Ryan Pulock28202225
56GP
35
290GP
22:2721:03$6.15M
8 years
$6.56M
8 years
Adam Pelech27202121
56GP
20
303GP
21:0319:16$5.75M
8 years
$6.21M
8 years
**Gustav Forsling28202442
63GP
33
397GP
21:4820:27$5.75M
8 years
$5.75M
8 years
*Erik Cernak26202319
55GP
21
226GP
19:0919:15$5.20M
8 years
$5.48M
8 years
*Deal signed one-year out – stats from the year before signing used for signing year stats.
**Deal signed mid-season – Points/82 pace prior to signing are used for signing year stats.

Based on all comps above, Zadorov’s numbers just don’t align. While he may have similar production to some of the defenders at the bottom of the table, his usage (both over his signing year and career) are nowhere close. As a result, an eight-year deal remains the most unlikely term for the defenseman’s contract.


7 YEARS

At seven years, it’s pretty much the same story.

PlayerAgeFirst Year
of Contract
Signing
Year P/82
Career
P/82
TOI
Season
Career
TOI
ContractOn $88.0M
Cap
Nikita Zadorov29202422
75GP
19
642GP
17:2618:05
Dougie Hamilton28202163
55GP
46
607GP
22:4320:27$9.00M
7 years
$9.71M
7 years
Alex Pietrangelo30202061
70GP
49
758GP
24:1124:38$8.80M
7 years
$9.50M
7 years
*Jared Spurgeon31202043
82GP
35
591GP
24:0922:21$7.58M
7 years
$8.18M
7 years
Keith Yandle30201647
82GP
46
661GP
19:5821:10$6.35M
7 years
$7.65M
7 years
*Ryan McDonagh30201938
63GP
37
530GP
23:2023:30$6.75M
7 years
$7.29M
7 years
**Devon Toews30202452
81GP
48
315GP
25:0623:01$7.25M
7 years
$7.25M
7 years
*Justin Faulk28201935
82GP
38
559GP
22:2523:16$6.50M
7 years
$7.02M
7 years
Torey Krug29202066
61GP
66
61GP
20:2920:19$6.50M
7 years
$7.02M
7 years
*Jonas Brodin28202133
69GP
22
555GP
21:3321:50$6.00M
7 years
$6.48M
7 years
Scott Mayfield31202324
82GP
21
428GP
21:0119:12$3.50M
7 ears
$3.69M
7 years
*Deal signed one-year out – stats from the year before signing used for signing year stats.
**Deal signed early into season – stats from that year before signing, as well as previous year are combined for Signing Year stats

I suppose if Scott Mayfield can get a seven-year contract at 31 years old, anything is possible. But even comparing Zadorov’s numbers to an outlier in Mayfield, once again, Zadorov’s usage is drastically different. So again, nothing points to a seven-year deal being at realistic for Zadorov.


6 YEARS

Six years is the longest deal we could expect to see for Zadorov, but even that’s pushing it.

PlayerAgeFirst Year
of Contract
Signing
Year P/82
Career
P/82
TOI
Season
Career
TOI
ContractOn $88.0M
Cap
Nikita Zadorov29202422
75GP
19
642GP
17:2618:05
**Nate Schmidt28201939
84GP
24
284GP
22:1418:08$5.95M
6 years
$6.42M
6 years
Ryan Graves28202327
78GP
27
302GP
19:5718:59$4.50M
6 years
$4.74M
6 years
**Deal signed early into season – stats from that year before signing, as well as previous year are combined for Signing Year stats

We don’t have many comps to work with, but Zadorov’s numbers are much lower than Schmidt’s were in his signing year, despite being a bit more comparable to the numbers Graves posted.

Still, while signing year production and career ice time were somewhat similar between the two, Graves had better career production and much higher signing year ice time. As a result, Zadorov’s market value should be a decent step down from Graves’ adjusted $4.75M cap hit, and with a ceiling likely in the low $4M range.


5 YEARS

At five years, we start to get more realistic comps for Zadorov.

PlayerAgeFirst Year
of Contract
Signing
Year P/82
Career
P/82
TOI
Season
Career
TOI
ContractOn $88.0M
Cap
Nikita Zadorov29202422
75GP
19
642GP
17:2618:05
Alex Goligoski31201637
82GP
40
562GP
23:5022:37$5.45M
5 years
$6.57M
5 years
Tyler Myers29201932
80GP
34
635GP
20:2122:22$6.00M
5 years
$6.48M
5 years
*Rasmus Ristolainen28202223
50GP
36
592GP
21:2623:37$5.10M
5 years
$5.44M
5 years
Karl Alzner29201713
82GP
16
591GP
19:4720:12$4.63M
5 years
$5.43M
5 years
Jason Demers28201630
62GP
28
423GP
20:5218:44$4.50M
5 years
$5.42M
5 years
Jamie Oleksiak29202121
56GP
16
369GP
20:2916:09$4.60M
5 years
$4.97M
5 years
Jack Johnson31201812
77GP
29
788GP
19:3322:52$3.25M
5 years
$3.60M
5 years
*Deal signed mid-season – Points/82 pace prior to signing are used for signing year stats.

At the upper end of this range, Zadorov’s value is pretty clearly below both Goligoski and Myers, comparing their numbers.

After that though, we do get a cluster of three deals, right around a $5.45M adjusted cap hit. Of the three, Zadorov isn’t overly comparable to either of Ristolainen or Demers, but you could make an argument of him being closer to Alzner. Zadorov’s production was better, but his ice time was lower, making it a bit more of a reasonable comp. Still, with two of three comps in this range pointing to the fact that he should be definitively lower than the $5.45M adjusted cap hit, the more realistic comps come from the Jamie Olekisak and Jack Johnson deals.

Starting with the Johnson deal, Zadorov actually comes in quite a bit lower in three of the four categories, having only the better signing year production. So while Johnson’s deal may only adjust to a $3.6M cap hit, it’s still tough to see Zadorov coming in lower than his current cap hit ($3.75M). Plus Johnson was one of the oldest comps listed at the time of signing, which could have possibly brought down his value on a five-year deal.

With the Oleksiak deal, the two had fairly comparable production, with Zadorov getting a slight edge. Meanwhile, though Oleksiak had much higher signing year ice time, Zadorov’s career ice time was quite a bit higher. This is maybe the most realistic comp we have to predict a five-year deal for Zadorov, projecting about a $5M cap hit.

Considering the Johnson deal does point to the idea that the deal could come in lower, Zadorov’s value is arguably a little below that mark, but it’s realistic to think Zadorov can get close to $5M.


4 YEARS

With four-year deals, we have the largest sample size of comparables, and it’s arguably the term that’s most suited with what Zadorov should get.

PlayerAgeFirst Year
of Contract
Signing
Year P/82
Career
P/82
TOI
Season
Career
TOI
ContractOn $88.0M
Cap
Nikita Zadorov29202422
75GP
19
642GP
17:2618:05
Kevin Shattenkirk28201757
80GP
50
480GP
19:5621:06$6.65M
4 years
$7.80M
4 years
*Jared Spurgeon27201644
32GP
30
307GP
22:1821:01$5.19M
4 years
$6.26M
4 years
*Jake Muzzin31202035
52GP
36
578GP
21:3621:15$5.63M
4 years
$6.08M
4 years
T.J. Brodie30202124
64GP
34
634GP
20:2722:35$5.00M
4 years
$5.40M
4 years
Brendan Smith28201714
51GP
19
309GP
19:1518:01$4.35M
4 years
$5.10M
4 years
Ben Chiarot31202229
76GP
20
489GP
22:5118:38$4.75M
4 years
$5.07M
4 years
Calvin De Haan27201830
33GP
22
304GP
18:4519:55$4.55M
4 years
$5.04M
4 years
Chris Tanev31202024
69GP
19
514GP
19:3219:44$4.50M
4 years
$4.86M
4 years
Josh Manson31202220
67GP
21
475GP
18:5919:44$4.50M
4 years
$4.80M
4 years
*Artem Zub28202322
95GP
23
142GP
21:1120:15$4.50M
4 years
$4.74M
4 years
Kris Russell30201716
67GP
24
641GP
20:1719:24$4.00M
4 years
$4.69M
4 years
Connor Murphy29202225
50GP
18
494GP
22:0919:06$4.40M
4 years
$4.69M
4 years
***Josh Manson27201817
82GP
16
181GP
18:3818:39$4.10M
4 years
$4.54M
4 years
Jake Gardiner29201940
62GP
36
551GP
21:1321:21$4.05M
4 years
$4.37M
4 years
Adam Larsson29202115
56GP
19
603GP
19:3920:42$4.00M
4 years
$4.32M
4 years
**Jake McCabe28202117
79GP
18
353GP
18:3819:15$4.00M
4 years
$4.32M
4 years
Nick Leddy31202226
75GP
35
851GP
21:2520:37$4.00M
4 years
$4.27M
4 years
Brenden Dillon30202017
69GP
16
598GP
19:2718:34$3.90M
4 years
$4.21M
4 years
David Savard3120219
54GP
22
611GP
19:5120:26$3.50M
4 years
$3.78M
4 years
Joel Edmundson27202024
68GP
18
337GP
18:2718:15$3.50M
4 years
$3.78M
4 years
Marco Scandella30202117
62GP
19
580GP
17:3519:50$3.28M
4 years
$3.54M
4 years
Cody Ceci28202126
53GP
21
549GP
18:3120:46$3.25M
4 years
$3.51M
4 years
Dylan DeMelo27202014
59GP
20
269GP
20:0917:01$3.00M
4 years
$3.24M
4 years
*Deal signed mid-season – Points/82 pace prior to signing are used for signing year stats.
**Limited games played in signing year – stats used from year before signing + prior year for signing year stats
***Deal signed one-year out – stats from the year before signing used for signing year stats.

While none of the first four contracts are overly realistic for Zadorov (Shattenkirk down to Brodie), Zadorov is quite a bit more comparable to most of the 19 deals from Chiarot and below though, often having similar stats in at least some categories.

One of the higher-priced comps that stands out is Brendan Smith. The two defensemen were very comparable in terms of career production and ice time, and while Smith had the higher usage in his signing year, Zadorov’s production was higher. Smith’s adjusted cap hit is $5.1M, which is an indicator that Zadorov could hit the $5M mark.

Still, if you look at most of the other comps around that range, Zadorov doesn’t match up quite as well. For the deals for Chiarot, De Haan and Tanev, Zadorov isn’t higher in any category, but is lower in some. Then with the Manson deal (2022), while the numbers are somewhat comparable, Manson was also coming off a Stanley Cup win, which certainly drove up his price-tag. So while Zadorov’s likely not too far off the range of $4.8M to $5.1M, most of the deals would point to him still coming in a little below.

It’s only around the deals for Dillon, McCabe, Larsson and Manson (2018), ranging between about $4.20M and $4.55M where we see more consistency in similarities between Zadorov and the comps. For each of those deals, the comp didn’t average more than 20 points per 82 over their signing year or career, and were generally averaging under 20 minutes of ice time as well.

Then below the Dillon deal, all comps would represent Zadorov taking a similar salary to his current $3.75M cap hit, or a pay cut. So assuming Zadorov does get a raise above his current $3.75M cap hit, that range between $4.20M to $4.55M acts as Zadorov’s projected value for a cap hit on a four-year deal.


3 YEARS

While there are some comparables for three-year deals, given the reports that Zadorov’s camp will be seeking term on the contract, it seems unlikely the defenseman signs for this short of a deal.

PlayerAgeFirst Year
of Contract
Signing
Year P/82
Career
P/82
TOI
Season
Career
TOI
ContractOn $88.0M
Cap
Nikita Zadorov29202422
75GP
19
642GP
17:2618:05
Justin Schultz27201754
78GP
38
344GP
20:2721:21$5.50M
3 years
$6.45M
3 years
Dmitry Kulikov2720179
507GP
23
507GP
21:5420:47$4.33M
3 years
$5.08M
3 years
Tyson Barrie30202170
56GP
53
610GP
21:2421:45$4.50M
3 years
$4.88M
3 years
Ian Cole29201824
67GP
20
405GP
17:4717:20$4.25M
3 years
$4.70M
3 years
*Braydon Coburn31201612
61GP
21
679GP
16:4020:43$3.70M
3 years
$4.46M
3 years
Kevin Shattenkirk31202040
70GP
46
679GP
18:2420:35$3.90M
3 years
$4.21M
3 years
Michael Stone27201719
64GP
24
343GP
19:4919:44$3.50M
3 years
$4.11M
3 years
Brandon Montour27202130
50GP
31
293GP
20:2920:34$3.50M
3 years
$3.78M
3 years
Derek Forbort29202118
56GP
16
331GP
20:4520:01$3.00M
3 years
$3.24M
3 years
Mike Reilly28202140
55GP
25
259GP
19:1716:43$3.00M
3 years
$3.24M
3 years
*Trevor van Riemsdyk31202326
69GP
17
523GP
19:0317:23$3.00M
3 years
$3.16M
3 years
*Deal signed mid-season – Points/82 pace prior to signing are used for signing year stats.

Then with the comparables, Zadorov doesn’t match up well at all against either Justin Schultz or Tyson Barrie. Again, considering we can expect that Zadorov will be in for a raise (even if he compares quite closely to some comps below his current $3.75M cap hit), the realistic range of comps above would be between Michael Stone’s $4.1M adjusted cap hit, and Dmitry Kulikov’s $5.1M adjusted cap hit.

Comparing Zadorov to Kulikov, while Zadorov had the better signing year production, Kulikov was much higher in ice time (and had the better career production), pointing to the fact that Zadorov probably shouldn’t be breaking $5M on a three-year deal, either.

However, the Ian Cole contract at an adjusted $4.7M cap hit acts as perhaps the best comparable for Zadorov. Both the production and ice time were very, very similar, which represents the highest realistic comp at this length of deal. Even with Braydon Coburn near a $4.5M adjusted cap hit, Zadorov had the bigger signing year, even if Coburn had the more ice time over his career. Both deals point to the fact that Zadorov could reasonably end up in the range of $4.5M to $4.7M on any possible three-year deal.


2 YEARS

Again, two years is unlikely for Zadorov, given he’ll almost surely be offered more term.

PlayerAgeFirst Year
of Contract
Signing
Year P/82
Career
P/82
TOI
Season
Career
TOI
ContractOn $88.0M
Cap
Nikita Zadorov29202422
75GP
19
642GP
17:2618:05
Vladislav Gavrikov28202322
72GP
24
276GP
21:5820:48$5.88M
2 years
$6.20M
2 years
Justin Schultz30202021
46GP
36
482GP
19:5320:55$4.00M
2 years
$4.32M
2 years
Nikita Zadorov27202224
74GP
18
485GP
16:5518:05$3.75M
2 years
$4.00M
2 years
Travis Hamonic31202122
38GP
24
675GP
19:2221:58$3.00M
2 years
$3.24M
2 years
Olli Maatta29202328
50GP
22
584GP
18:0918:35$3.00M
2 years
$3.16M
2 years

Plus, the two-year comparables really don’t point to much of a raise for the defenseman. He’s well outside the comps from Schultz and above in terms of usage, and his most realistic comp is actually his own deal from two years ago.

Zadorov’s production and ice time were fairly consistent to his numbers when he signed previously, with the only difference in the projection being an adjusted cap hit for an $88M cap pointing to a $4M cap hit instead.


1 YEAR

Again, a one-year deal is very unlikely. A player would only take one at Zadorov’s age either to boost value (which he doesn’t need to do), or because they can’t get a longer deal (which won’t be the case).

PlayerAgeFirst Year
of Contract
Signing
Year P/82
Career
P/82
TOI
Season
Career
TOI
ContractOn $88.0M
Cap
Nikita Zadorov29202422
75GP
19
642GP
17:2618:05
John Klingberg30202252
74GP
56
552GP
22:1322:59$7.00M
1 year
$7.47M
1 year
Matt Dumba30202315
79GP
32
598GP
21:1720:37$3.90M
1 year
$4.11M
1 year
Tyson Barrie29202046
70GP
51
554GP
21:5321:47$3.75M
1 year
$4.05M
1 year
Kris Russell29201625
62GP
25
573GP
23:0519:11$3.10M
1 year
$3.74M
1 year
Erik Gustafsson28202036
66GP
44
221GP
20:2319:58$3.00M
1 year
$3.24M
1 year

Even with the projections though, there’s nothing really pointing to a raise for Zadorov, given he’s lower in production/usage than every comp listed. Perhaps a rebuilding team would offer a higher cap hit for a one-year deal, but we have almost nothing to work with in terms of what that would look like.

The defenseman has been at a $3.75M cap hit for each of the last three years (adjusts to $4M on an $88M salary cap), which represents his past market value on a short-term deal and is maybe the best indicator available – but again, a one-year extension is very unlikely for the defenseman.


Projection

With Zadorov likely seeking term on his next contract, a deal between four and six years is the most probable scenario for the defenseman. But while Zadorov’s asking price may be $5M per year or above, and someone may certainly be willing to pay him that in free agency, most comps would have him coming in below that mark at any term.

TermProjected Cap hitMaximum Cap HitMinimum Cap Hit
4 Years$4.50M$5.13M$4.25M
5 Years$4.70M$5.00M$4.50M
6 Years$4.33M$4.75M$4.00M

If Zadorov wasn’t able to get term for whatever reason, and had to opt for a shorter deal, projections for contracts in the range of one to three years are listed below.

TermProjected Cap hitMaximum Cap HitMinimum Cap Hit
3 Years$4.67M$5.00M$4.50M
2 Years$4.00M$4.50M$3.75M
1 Year$4.00M$4.50M$3.75M

In the very unlikely scenario where Zadorov signed a maximum-term deal, we’d be likely to see it come in at a reduced cap hit, similar to Scott Mayfield last offseason .

TermProjected Cap hitMaximum Cap HitMinimum Cap Hit
7/8 Years$4.00M$4.00M$3.50M

Leave a comment