Duchene was a fit in Dallas, but will he be moving on to his sixth NHL team in free agency?
*Note: This article was released in June 2024, to project Duchene’s new contract ahead of the 2024-25 season.
Player Overview
Selected third overall in the 2009 NHL Draft behind John Tavares and Victor Hedman, Matt Duchene made the jump directly to the Colorado Avalanche for the 2009-10 season. He quickly established himself as a key member of the organization from there, becoming one of the team’s top players from that era.
However, things went downhill between Duchene and the Avalanche during the 2016-17 season, when Duchene reportedly asked for a trade, but the Avalanche held off on a deal, awaiting the right return. After beginning the 2017-18 season with Colorado despite the strained relationship between team and player, Duchene was finally dealt to the Ottawa Senators early into the season.
The forward’s tenure in Ottawa was short-lived, though. With Ottawa struggling to regain the success they saw in their 2017 Eastern Conference Final run and poised for a rebuild, Duchene was dealt as a rental player to the Columbus Blue Jackets at the trade deadline in 2019. Following the quick stop in Columbus for the playoff run, Duchene signed with the Nashville Predators that summer.
Things started out rocky with the Predators though, with Duchene managing just 55 points across 100 games in his first two seasons with the team. Despite finding his footing in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons though, he was bought out by the Predators, after Barry Trotz stepped in as the team’s new general manager.’
Duchene signed a one-year deal with the Dallas Stars following the buy-out, scoring 25 goals and 65 points in 80 games, fairly consistent with his career production prior to joining the Stars.
The forward may be 33 years old, but can still put up big numbers in a top-six role, capable of playing either at center or on the wing. Duchene has great puck control and agility, along with good speed and fairly high-end scoring ability. While his defensive game leaves room to be desired, Duchene can still be highly effective in the years to come.
What We Know
- Speaking with The Sweep Spot on Sportsradio 96.7FM/1310 the Ticket, Duchene noted that money is ‘definitely not the No. 1’ with a new contract.
- Duchene noted that across hockey, family and money compensation, Dallas was a fit for all three.
- Per Elliotte Friedman, the Stars are expected to try to re-sign Duchene.
Comparables
Below, we take a look at what Duchene’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.
With Duchene now 33 years old, the comparables used will generally be forwards who were near his age at the time of signing.
4 YEARS
A four-year deal for Duchene is unlikely, but could represent the longest term he could realistically get on his next contract.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $88M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Matt Duchene | 33 | 2024 | 26-67 80GP | 26-63 1056GP | 26-65 | ||||
| Alex Killorn | 34 | 2023 | 27-64 53GP | 20-47 991GP | 24-56 | $6.25M 4 years | $6.56M 4 years | 1.17 | $7.61M 4 years |
| *Alexander Steen | 33 | 2017 | 21-64 67GP | 22-53 746GP | 22-59 | $5.75M 4 years | $6.72M 4 years | 1.14 | $7.40M 4 years |
| Pascal Dupuis | 34 | 2013 | 34-65 48GP | 28-38 798GP | 31-52 | $3.75M 4 years | $5.11M 4 years | 0.98 | $6.39M 4 years |
| Ryan O’Reilly | 32 | 2023 | 25-46 53GP | 21-58 991GP | 23-52 | $4.50M 4 years | $4.73M 4 years | 0.91 | $5.91M 4 years |
| Evander Kane | 31 | 2022 | 42-74 43GP | 29-55 812GP | 36-65 | $5.13M 4 years | $5.47M 4 years | 0.84 | $5.46M 4 years |
Based on the comps above, Duchene’s market value would be somewhere between about $5.5M and $7.6M on a four-year deal.
However, one major thing to note that will affect projections at every length is the fact that Duchene was public that money is not necessarily the top priority for him. So while it’s typically important to establish market value for a player’s projection, we can expect that Duchene could very well be at least near the bottom of any applicable range we have, if not lower.
Of the comps listed, Alex Killorn was also coming off three straight Stanley Cup Final appearances (which included two Stanley Cups), which inevitably really drove up his value. Meanwhile, the Alexander Steen and Pascal Dupuis comps were based on contracts signed quite a while ago. So realisitcally, we’d be looking towards the bottom of this range anyways.
The Ryan O’Reilly comp is an interesting one. It’s from last offseason, and signed by a center who was around the same age, and almost surely took less than he could’ve made in free agency. Meanwhile, Evander Kane was also recently coming off a buyout/termination like Duchene, and had comparable production. So Duchene’s market value on a four-year deal is most likely be between the $5.5M and $5.9M projections.
Again though, if fit is most important, perhaps we see a lower cap hit on any possible four-year deal, even as low as O’Reilly’s actual $4.5M cap hit. While that would already be below market value, anything less would be a steal that can’t really be projected based on comps.
3 YEARS
Three years is the most likely length for Duchene’s deal.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $88M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Matt Duchene | 33 | 2024 | 26-67 80GP | 26-63 1056GP | 26-65 | ||||
| Paul Stastny | 34 | 2018 | 22-50 66GP | 23-66 742GP | 23-58 | $6.50M 3 years | $7.17M 3 years | 1.24 | $8.06M 3 years |
| Tyler Bozak | 32 | 2018 | 11-44 81GP | 19-50 594GP | 15-47 | $5.00M 3 years | $5.52M 3 years | 1.17 | $7.61M 3 years |
| Joe Pavelski | 35 | 2019 | 42-70 76GP | 30-65 963GP | 36-68 | $7.00M 3 years | $7.53M 3 years | 1.11 | $7.22M 3 years |
| Reilly Smith | 31 | 2022 | 23-56 56GP | 21-50 686GP | 22-53 | $5.00M 3 years | $5.33M 3 years | 1.01 | $6.54M 3 years |
| Claude Giroux | 34 | 2022 | 23-71 75GP | 24-74 1018GP | 24-73 | $6.50M 3 years | $6.91M 3 years | 0.95 | $6.18M 3 years |
| Evgeni Dadonov | 31 | 2020 | 30-56 69GP | 27-59 280GP | 29-58 | $5.00M 3 years | $5.40M 3 years | 0.93 | $6.05M 3 years |
| *Nino Niederreiter | 32 | 2024 | 25-46 99GP | 20-41 756GP | 23-44 | $4.00M 3 years | $4.00M 3 years | 0.91 | $5.91M 3 years |
| Patrick Eaves | 33 | 2017 | 33-53 79GP | 17-32 624GP | 25-43 | $3.15M 3 years | $3.70M 3 years | 0.86 | $5.59M 3 years |
| Mike Hoffman | 32 | 2021 | 27-57 82GP | 28-59 545GP | 28-58 | $4.50M 3 years | $4.86M 3 years | 0.84 | $5.46M 3 years |
| Erik Haula | 32 | 2023 | 14-42 80GP | 17-38 614GP | 16-40 | $3.15M 3 years | $3.32M 3 years | 0.83 | $5.40M 3 years |
| Eric Staal | 32 | 2016 | 13-39 83GP | 29-69 929GP | 21-54 | $3.50M 3 years | $4.22M 3 years | 0.78 | $5.08M 3 years |
The 11 comparables would put Duchene between about $5.05M and $8.05M on a three-year deal.
That said, even the comparables who had better production than Duchene, in Claude Giroux and Joe Pavelski, only got in the range of $6.5M to $7M. So it’s difficult to see Duchene coming in above the $6.55M projection from the Reilly Smith contract, and the more likely range falls around the eight comparables projecting $5M to $6.5M for Duchene.
Of these comps, Haula and Staal had the lowest signing year production of any, which could’ve contributed to a lower payment rate. As a result, Duchene’s market value on a three-year deal is at least $5.5M.
Still, we have to factor in Duchene’s possible willingness to take a pay-cut. Obviously, we can’t begin to guess how much of a discount he’d be willing to take, but a little below market value likely puts him towards the bottom of these comparables, around the $5M mark.
2 YEARS
Two years is likely the shortest length we’d see for a Duchene contract.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $88M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Matt Duchene | 33 | 2024 | 26-67 80GP | 26-63 1056GP | 26-65 | ||||
| Tomas Plekanec | 34 | 2016 | 26-60 82GP | 22-54 761GP | 24-57 | $6.00M 2 years | $7.21M 2 years | 1.26 | $8.19M 2 years |
| Antoine Vermette | 33 | 2015 | 13-38 82GP | 19-43 834GP | 16-41 | $3.75M 2 years | $4.61M 2 years | 1.13 | $7.35M 2 years |
| Mike Fisher | 35 | 2015 | 26-54 59GP | 21-45 946GP | 24-50 | $4.40M 2 years | $5.40M 2 years | 1.08 | $7.02M 2 years |
| Nick Foligno | 34 | 2021 | 12-33 49GP | 17-42 957GP | 15-38 | $3.80M 2 years | $4.09M 2 years | 1.08 | $7.02M 2 years |
| Mikko Koivu | 35 | 2018 | 18-59 80GP | 17-60 843GP | 18-60 | $5.50M 2 years | $6.07M 2 years | 1.01 | $6.57M 2 years |
| Tomas Tatar | 31 | 2021 | 16-49 50GP | 23-49 625GP | 20-49 | $4.50M 2 years | $4.86M 2 years | 0.99 | $6.44M 2 years |
| Mikael Backlund | 35 | 2024 | 19-56 82GP | 17-44 908GP | 18-50 | $4.50M 2 years | $4.50M 2 years | 0.90 | $5.85M 2 years |
| David Perron | 34 | 2022 | 33-70 67GP | 23-56 973GP | 28-63 | $4.75M 2 years | $5.05M 2 years | 0.80 | $5.20M 2 years |
For the two-year comps, we see a range of $5.2M to $8.2M for projections. At the same time, the three comps projecting the largest contract for Duchene all began in 2015 or 2016, while all five of the lower-paid projections came in from 2018 onwards. We’ve seen teams be less willing to give high-priced contracts to players in their 30s, so we’re likely looking below those three comps, between the $5.2M projection, and a maximum of $7M, using the projection from the Foligno contract as a maximum.
Even just looking at what the likes of Tatar and Backlund made on their deals compared to their production, we know Duchene’s market value is well above the $5M mark on a two-year deal, though. Plus at his age, less term can be the goal for teams, so a shorter deal could warrant a higher cap hit in a lot of cases, rather than a deal with term. The majority of the comps above would put him above $6M.
Once again though, if Duchene’s priority is fit over money, he’s likely towards the bottom of this range. So even though he could make more, once again seeing him closer to the $5M mark could be most likely scenario.
Projection
Duchene’s next contract is most likely to come in between two and four years, with three years being the most likely length for the deal.
The issue with projecting Duchene’s deal is that if money is not the top priority for the forward, it becomes very difficult to tell what he’ll re-sign for. This is one of the very few contracts where player’s market value isn’t directly used for the projection.
If the priority for the player is finding the right fit, it’s realistic to see him taking a pay-cut for the right situation, such as re-signing in Dallas. Whereas other players will be more open in terms of who they sign with in order to maximize their pay, this doesn’t look to be the case for Duchene. As a result, Duchene’s market value is roughly about $1M higher than the projections below at each term will list.
So rather than projecting a deal based on what he could get, the projections at each length represent what a reasonable contract on the lower end of his market value (or even a little below market value) could look like for Duchene.
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum | Minimum |
| 2 Years | $5.25M | $6.50M | $5.00M |
| 3 Years | $5.00M | $6.25M | $5.00M |
| 4 Years | $4.50M | $6.00M | $4.50M |
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