If Guentzel hits free agency, he could possibly be the top UFA available.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

Player Overview

Debuting with the Pittsburgh Penguins in the 2016-17 season, Jake Guentzel kicked off his NHL career in style, winning a Stanley Cup with the team in his rookie year.

From there, he went on to solidify himself as a staple with the Penguins, spending parts of eight seasons with the team. Over his tenure in Pittsburgh, he scored at a pace of about 35 goals and 75 points per 82, before being dealt to the Carolina Hurricanes at this year’s trade deadline.

Guentzel then only upped his numbers upon arriving in Carolina, managing an excellent eight goals and 25 points in 17 regular season games with the team. Alongside Sebastian Aho, Guentzel gave the Hurricanes a piece they’ve been missing over the last few years, forming a duo capable of producing high-end offense on a consistent basis.

Guentzel will primarily add value with his offensive production, but he’s also fairly hard-working winger who can get to pucks first and cause some issues on the forecheck for defensemen.

While he was a great fit in Carolina though, and the Hurricanes would surely love to keep him, Guentzel has also set himself up for a big pay-day. In the case that Carolina can’t meet his demands, Guentzel would arguably be the top free agent on the market.

What We Know

• Nick Kypreos previously reported that Guentzel may have been offered a six-year contract by the Pittsburgh Penguins before the trade, with an $8.5 million cap hit.
• Guentzel spoke highly of his experience in Carolina following the season, and seemed open to re-signing in Carolina.
• According to The Fourth Period, while Guentzel has not ruled out returning to Carolina, he is expected to hit free agency on July 1.
• Elliotte Friedman reported that Guentzel’s rights were made available in a trade for a mid-round pick. He linked Guentzel to the Chicago Blackhawks and Vancouver Canucks, in the scenario the winger hits free agency.

Comparables

Below, we take a look at what Guentzel’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.

With Guentzel turning 30 years old in October, the comparables used will generally be wingers who were near his age at the time of signing.

7/8 YEARS

Typically with contract projections, we look at what a player could make at a range of different contract lengths. With Guentzel though, it’s pretty simple: he could get an eight-year deal if he re-signs with the Hurricanes prior to July 1, or otherwise, he’ll get seven years if he hits free agency.

Based on comparables, a player at Guentzel’s age with his production will pretty much always get a maximum-term contract. From the player’s perspective as well, it wouldn’t make sense to take any shorter of a deal, given this is almost certainly going to be Guentzel’s last big contract, given his age.

Below, we look at what Guentzel could make on a seven or eight-year contract, based on what other forwards with high-end production have been able to get.

Aside from two outliers in the Artemi Panarin and Jamie Benn contracts, all of the other nine comps would have Guentzel making between a $9M and $10.5M cap hit on a seven or eight-year deal. Per the comps though, all signs are pointing to him reaching the $9M mark, at absolute minimum.

In determining where Guentzel could fall within the range of $9M to $10.5M, it’s a matter of trying to see which players were the most comparable to Guentzel’s situation at the time of signing. Perhaps the most important thing is that while many of the other players listed here were 28 years old, being pretty fresh into their UFA status, Guentzel will be 30 years old by the start of the coming season. As a result, the two extra years for Guentzel’s deal compared to those comps are coming when he’s in the range of 36/37 years old, rather than when he’s 28/29 years old.

Age does seemingly have an impact on the projections as well. Of the five total comps listed where a player was 28 years old by Dec. 31 of the first year of the deal, four of them projected Guentzel above $10M. However, of the three deals where a player was 30 years old by Dec. 31 in the first year of the deal, all of them had Guentzel below the $10M mark. As a result, we’re likely looking at a deal below $10M for Guentzel.

Then there’s also the possibility that term makes a difference in this scenario. For example, if the Hurricanes signed Guentzel to an eight-year deal, they may be able do so at a lower cap hit than Guentzel would get on a seven-year deal, based on total dollars Guentzel would be receiving.

But based on the six comps projecting below $10M, four of them were eight-year deals, and one was the Johnny Gaudreau signing, where he took less than he could’ve made in Calgary in order to sign in Columbus. Plus, all five of the other deals aside from the Gaudreau contract were for a player re-signing with their current team, rather than hitting the open market. This points to the idea that the projections at the bottom of the table are actually suited more to what Guentzel could get from the Hurricanes on an eight-year deal, with the cap hit for a seven-year deal on the open market likely being even higher.

Five of the six comps projecting below $10M do have Guentzel in a very defined range though, between $9M and $9.3M. So his value on an eight-year deal is likely right around $9M, or in the low-$9M range. If the Hurricanes were to offer a $9M cap hit for eight years ($72 million in total value), it would take a team offering about $10.3M per year on a seven-year deal to match that offer, which is unlikely to happen.

However, there’s the case where the Hurricanes aren’t willing to offer an eight-year deal, or weren’t willing to go high enough on cap hit to ensure another team couldn’t offer more total dollars on a seven-year deal. We could then see a seven-year deal verge towards the $9.5M mark in a bidding war, or even a little higher, based on the Jonathan Huberdeau projection and some of the other deals projecting Guentzel at a higher cap hit.

Projection

In the scenario where the Hurricanes were willing to offer $9M per year on an eight-year contract, it’s very unlikely another team would be able to match the total dollar value on a seven-year deal. That said, Guentzel receiving an eight-year offer at any lower of a cap hit would be enough reason to head to the open market.

Even if the Hurricanes were willing to offer an $8.5M cap hit for eight years, it would be the equivalent of roughly a $9.7M cap hit on a seven-year deal in total dollars, which isn’t wildly far-fetched. Guentzel would arguably be the top free agent on the market, and there’s bound to be a bidding war if he hits free agency.

So while his cap hit may be a little lower on any possible eight-year contract with the Hurricanes, if Guentzel does hit the market, comparables would suggest he could verge into $9.5M territory on a seven-year deal, or even possibly higher.