Projecting Jake DeBrusk’s next contract

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After seven seasons with the Boston Bruins, DeBrusk could be in search of a new home.


Player Overview

Originally selected 14th overall by Boston in the 2015 NHL Draft, Jake DeBrusk has spent his entire career with the organization.

The winger’s offensive ceiling isn’t wildly high, usually scoring at a points per 82 pace of about 20-25 goals and 40-50 points each season. That said, he’s a fairly well-rounded, hard-working forward with good speed and a solid defensive impact.

DeBrusk could fit into just about any middle-six group in the NHL, and if he does depart Boston, he’ll draw some interest in free agency.


What We Know

  • DeBrusk noted that he expected to have a new deal in place earlier, but that as of mid-May, he and the team had not spoken about his future in Boston.
  • If DeBrusk hits free agency, The Fourth Period noted the Edmonton Oilers, Los Angeles Kings and Toronto Maple Leafs as teams who could have interest.

Comparables

Below, we take a look at what DeBrusk’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.

With DeBrusk turning 28 years old in October, the comparables used will generally be wingers who were near his age at the time of signing.

7/8 YEARS

A maximum-term deal for DeBrusk – whether that’s eight years with the Bruins, or seven years if he goes to free agency – is extremely unlikely.

I’ve only included comps for seven-year deals below, but even there, DeBrusk’s production is lower than every comp listed, aside from Pierre Engvall.

PlayerAgeFirst Year
of Contract
Signing Year
G&P/82
Career
G&P/82
Mid
Point
ContractOn
$88M
Cap
Payment
Rate
Projection
Jake DeBrusk28202419-41
80GP
24-47
465GP
22-44
Anders Lee29201928-51
82GP
29-50
425GP
29-51$7.00M
7 years
$7.56M
7 years
1.48$6.52M
7 years
Artemi Panarin28201929-90
79GP
30-81
322GP
30-86$11.64M
years
$12.57M
7 years
1.46$6.43M
7 years
Evander Kane27201830-57
78GP
27-51
574GP
29-54$7.00M
7 years
$7.75M
7 years
1.44$6.31M
7 years
***Tom Wilson30202432-55
33GP
15-36
680GP
24-46$6.50M
7 years
$6.50M
7 years
1.41$6.22M
7 years
Milan Lucic28201620-56
81GP
20-50
647GP
20-53$6.00M
7 years
$7.23M
7 years
1.36$6.00M
7 years
*Chris Kreider 29202033-62
60GP
25-50
520GP
38-56$6.50M
7 years
$7.02M
7 years
1.25$5.51M
7 years
**Cam Atkinson29201836-57
97GP
26-48
397GP
31-53$5.88M
7 years
$6.51M
7 years
1.23$5.40M
7 years
Kevin Fiala26202233-85
82GP
24-55
419GP
29-70$7.88M
7 years
$8.41M
7 years
1.20$5.28M
7 years
Troy Terry26202327-71
70GP
22-53
274GP
25-62$7.00M
7 years
$7.38M
7 years
1.19$5.24M
7 years
Kyle Okposo28201623-66
79GP
22-57
529GP
23-62$6.00M
7 years
$7.23M
7 years
1.17$5.13M
7 years
Zach Hyman29202129-63
43GP
20-44
345GP
25-54$5.50M
7 years
$5.94M
7 years
1.10$4.84M
7 years
Johnny Gaudreau29202240-115
82GP
29-83
602GP
35-99$9.75M
7 years
$10.40M
7 years
1.05$4.62M
7 years
Pierre Engvall27202318-32
76GP
16-31
244GP
17-32$3.00M
7 years
$3.16M
7 years
0.99$4.35M
7 years
*Midseason signing – Signing Year stats calculated from games played in season where deal was signed.
**Deal signed early into season – stats from that year before signing, as well as previous year are combined for Signing Year stats ***Deal signed one year out – stats from season before signing used for signing year stats

Still, using comparables to create a projection for the term, they’d have him between $4.3M on the low end, up to $6.5M on the high end. Perhaps a team would give more term if it meant keeping the cap hit down around the lower portion of this range, but again, a seven-year deal is very unlikely, based on DeBrusk having lower production than almost any other forward who signs a seven or eight-year deal at his age.


6 YEARS

At six years, we get a more realistic look at what’s probably the most term DeBrusk could get on his deal.

PlayerAgeFirst Year
of Contract
Signing Year
G&P/82
Career
G&P/82
Mid
Point
ContractOn
$88M
Cap
Payment
Rate
Projection
Jake DeBrusk28202419-41
80GP
24-47
465GP
22-44
*Brendan Gallagher29202133-54
35GP
26-50
582GP
30-52$6.50M
6 years
$7.02M
6 years
1.35$5.94M
6 years
Blake Coleman30202121-46
55GP
19-34
301GP
20-40$4.90M
6 years
$5.29M
6 years
1.32$5.82M
6 years
*Nick Foligno28201541-77
34GP
17-39
500GP
29-58$5.50M
6 years
$6.78M
6 years
1.17$5.14M
6 years
Rickard Rakell29202223-48
70GP
23-51
569GP
23-50$5.00M
6 years
$5.33M
6 years
1.07$4.69M
6 years
*Josh Bailey29201821-88
58GP
14-43
697GP
18-66$5.00M
6 years
$5.53M
6 years
0.84$3.69M
6 years
Bryan Rust 30202233-79
60GP
24-52
424GP
29-66$5.13M
6 years
$5.47M
6 years
0.83$3.65M
6 years
*Midseason signing – Signing Year stats calculated from games played in season where deal was signed.

With the comps, we see projections ranging from $3.65M on the low end, up to $5.95M on the high end. At the same time, there’s a trend with the two comps at the bottom of the table: with both Josh Bailey and Bryan Rust, both were in the midst of a huge outlier year with their production, compared to their career production. As a result, it likely played a large role in a lower payment rate. So realistically, the range is probably between the projection from the Rickard Rakell contract at $4.7M, up to that $5.95M mark.

Within the four comps for that range, one thing that stands out is the Blake Coleman deal, which projects DeBrusk up at about $5.8M. Coleman was coming off back-to-back Stanley Cups, and much like other players who left the team afterwards (such as Barclay Goodrow), they were paid at a premium on their contract. With DeBrusk not in the same situation, we can likely expect him to be at the lower end of the range. While it would be difficult to see him slipping under $5M on a six-year term, somewhere between the Coleman projection ($5.8M) and the $5M mark – possibly around the projection from the Nick Foligno deal ($5.14M) – is likely the range for a six-year deal.


5 YEARS

Five years is another realistic term for DeBrusk, with a majority of players who signed at this term having similar production to the winger.

PlayerAgeFirst Year
of Contract
Signing Year
G&P/82
Career
G&P/82
Mid
Point
ContractOn
$88M
Cap
Payment
Rate
Projection
Jake DeBrusk28202419-41
80GP
24-47
465GP
22-44
*Jakob Silfverberg29201923-35
56GP
19-40
475GP
21-38$5.25M
5 years
$5.67M
5 years
1.49$6.56M
5 years
James van Riemsdyk29201836-55
81GP
27-53
609GP
32-54$7.00M
5 years
$7.75M
5 years
1.43$6.31M
5 years
Matt Beleskey27201528-40
65GP
14-28
329GP
21-34$3.80M
5 years
$4.68M
5 years
1.38$6.06M
5 years
Michael Frolik27201519-42
82GP
15-38
512GP
17-40$4.30M
5 years
$5.30M
5 years
1.32$5.83M
5 years
Artturi Lehkonen27202221-42
74GP
16-31
412GP
19-37$4.50M
5 years
$4.80M
5 years
1.30$5.71M
5 years
Ivan Barbashev28202316-45
82GP
16-37
433GP
16-41$5.00M
5 years
$5.27M
5 years
1.29$5.65M
5 years
Reilly Smith26201625-50
82GP
18-43
285GP
22-47$5.00M
5 years
$6.03M
5 years
1.28$5.64M
5 years
Jordan Eberle29201920-39
78GP
26-59
666GP
23-49$5.50M
5 years
$5.94M
5 years
1.21$5.33M
5 years
Craig Smith26201523-44
82GP
19-43
277GP
21-444.25M
5 years
$5.24M
5 years
1.19$5.24M
5 years
Jaden Schwartz29202116-43
40GP
23-56
560GP
20-50$5.50M
5 years
$5.94M
5 years
1.19$5.23M
5 years
Jason Zucker26201833-64
82GP
24-43
340GP
29-54$5.50M
5 years
$6.09M
5 years
1.13$4.96M
5 years
Ondrej Palat26201719-57
75GP
20-58
307GP
20-58$5.30M
5 years
$6.22M
5 years
1.07$4.72M
5 years
Andre Burkovsky27202223-63
80GP
19-47
519GP
21-55$5.50M
5 years
$5.87M
5 years
1.07$4.69M
5 years
Oliver Bjorkstrand26202126-64
49GP
22-48
305GP
24-56$5.40M
5 years
$5.83M
5 years
1.04$4.58M
5 years
*Midseason signing – Signing Year stats calculated from games played in season where deal was signed.

With the five-year deals, we see projections between about $4.55M to $6.55M. Still, of the 14 projections, only three come in above $5.85M, and only three others come in below $4.95M, leaving eight comps within that pretty defined range.

Of the projections though, two of them stand out a bit. One is Ivan Barbashev’s deal from last summer, which would project a $5.65M deal for DeBrusk. Barbashev had fairly similar production to DeBrusk, but similar to the Coleman situation with a six-year deal, he was coming right off a Stanley Cup win, which inevitably drove up his value. As a result, we’re likely looking below that projection.

Another good comp would be Craig Smith, who had very similar production to DeBrusk, and had him projected at roughly a $5.25M cap hit on a five-year deal. So once again, we’re seeing DeBrusk in a similar range as for a six-year deal, likely between $5M on the low end, to $5.5M on the high end.


4 YEARS

Four years would probably be the shortest term we’d see for a DeBrusk deal. It would have him re-entering the market at 32 years old after the deal expires, which doesn’t set him up overly well for another big payday later. So if DeBrusk can get more term, he’s likely to take it.

PlayerAgeFirst Year
of Contract
Signing Year
G&P/82
Career
G&P/82
Mid
Point
ContractOn
$88M
Cap
Payment
Rate
Projection
Jake DeBrusk28202419-41
80GP
24-47
465GP
22-44
Tomas Tatar27201725-46
82GP
24-46
345GP
25-46$5.30M
4 years
$6.22M
4 years
1.35$5.95M
4 years
Kyle Palmieri30202116-34
51GP
25-48
612GP
21-41$5.00M
4 years
$5.40M
4 years
1.32$5.80M
4 years
Carl Hagelin27201517-35
82GP
18-40
266GP
18-38$4.00M
4 years
$4.93M
4 years
1.30$5.71M
4 years
Alex DeBrincat26202327-66
82GP
24-68
450GP
26-67$7.88M
4 years
$8.28M
4 years
1.24$5.44M
4 years
Adrian Kempe26202237-57
78GP
19-39
390GP
28-48$5.50M
4 years
$5.87M
4 years
1.22$5.38M
4 years
Joonas Donskoi27201914-38
80GP
13-35
283GP
14-37$3.90M
4 years
$4.21M
4 years
1.14$5.01M
4 years
Mike Hoffman27201630-62
78GP
26-50
186GP
28-56$5.19M
4 years
$6.26M
4 years
1.12$4.92M
4 years
Mathieu Perreault29201710-47
71GP
18-41
361GP
18-44$4.13M
4 years
$4.85M
4 years
1.10$4.85M
4 years
*Mats Zuccarello28201516-51
60GP
17-52
204GP
17-52$4.50M
4 years
$5.55M
4 years
1.07$4.69M
4 years
Gustav Nyquist30201922-61
81GP
21-50
500GP
22-56$5.50M
4 years
$5.94M
4 years
1.06$4.67M
4 years
Mikkel Boedker27201617-52
80GP
15-40
463GP
16-46$4.00M
4 years
$4.82M
4 years
1.05$4.61M
4 years
Taylor Hall30202115-51
53GP
27-72
680GP
21-62$6.00M
4 years
$6.48M
4 years
1.04$4.60M
4 years
Pavel Buchnevich26202130-73
54GP
22-53
301GP
26-63$5.80M
4 years
$6.26M
4 years
0.99$4.37M
4 years
Brett Connolly27201922-47
81GP
15-30
427GP
19-39$3.50M
4 years
$3.78M
4 years
0.97$4.26M
4 years
Anthony Mantha26202031-72
43GP
26-55
260GP
29-64$5.70M
4 years
$6.15M
4 years
0.96$4.23M
4 years
Micheal Ferland27201920-46
71GP
15-33
321GP
18-40$3.50M
4 years
$3.78M
4 years
0.94$4.16M
4 years
*Alex Iafallo28202123-53
40GP
16-39
267GP
20-46$4.00M
4 years
$4.32M
4 years
0.94$4.13M
4 years
Tyler Toffoli28202029-53
68GP
23-47
525GP
26-50$4.25M
4 years
$4.59M
4 years
0.92$4.04M
4 years
*Midseason signing – Signing Year stats calculated from games played in season where deal was signed.

With the 18 projections, every one of them falls between $4M and $6M, so once again, we’re seeing a fairly similar range.

That said, it’s difficult to differentiate between these deals in terms of trying to determine a more precise number within that range. Of the deals, only six of them would project DeBrusk at $5M or more, with 12 of them projecting him between $4M and $5M. Given the projections for five and six-year deals would have him between the $5M and $5.5M mark though, it points to the fact that less term is very unlikely to point to a higher cap hit for DeBrusk (and possibly the opposite).

So if DeBrusk does scratch the $5M mark on a four-year deal, he’s likely not coming in much above it at all.


3 YEARS

At three years, we’re verging into unlikely term for the deal.

PlayerAgeFirst Year
of Contract
Signing
Year
G&P/82
Career
G&P/82
Mid
Point
Cap HitOn
$88M
Cap
Payment
Rate
Projection
Jake DeBrusk28202419-41
80GP
24-47
465GP
22-44
Andrew Mangiapane26202235-55
82GP
25-42
260GP
30-49$5.80M
3 years
$6.19M
3 years
1.26$5.56M
3 years
Sam Reinhart26202138-61
54GP
24-53
454GP
31-57$6.50M
3 years
$6.99M
3 years
1.2$5.40M
3 years
Jamie McGinn28201621-38
84GP
17-30
450GP
19-34$3.33M
3 years
$4.01M
3 years
1.18$5.19M
3 years
Marcus Johansson26201619-51
74GP
15-45
419GP
17-48$4.58M
3 years
$5.52M
3 years
1.15$5.06M
3 years
*Cam Atkinson26201518-35
58GP
21-40
199GP
20-38$3.50M
3 years
$4.31M
3 years
1.13$4.99M
3 years
Frank Vatrano28202221-37
71GP
21-35
401GP
21-36$3.65M
3 years
$3.89M
3 years
1.08$4.76M
3 years
**Marcus Foligno30202115-35
59GP
11-27
565GP
13-31$3.10M
3 years
$3.35M
3 years
1.08$4.75M
3 years
*Tanner Pearson29202115-27
33GP
19-38
490GP
17-33$3.25M
3 years
$3.51M
3 years
1.06$4.68M
3 years
**Robby Fabbri26202225-44
59GP
19-41
275GP
22-43$4.00M
3 years
$4.27M
3 years
0.99$4.37M
3 years
Michael Bunting27202323-49
82GP
25-55
187GP
24-52$4.50M
3 years
$4.74M
3 years
0.91$4.01M
3 years
Connor Brown26202018-50
71GP
15-36
324GP
17-43$3.60M
3 years
$3.89M
3 years
0.90$3.98M
3 years
***Ryan Hartman30202421-51
59GP
17-38
506GP
19-45$4.00M
3 years
$4.00M
3 years
0.89$3.91M
3 years
*Midseason signing – Signing Year stats calculated from games played in season where deal was signed.
**Deal signed early into season – stats from signing year plus season prior used for signing year stats

***Deal signed out year out – stats from season prior to signing used for signing year stats

With the comps for three-year deals, the two forwards with the highest payment rate were those who had significant goal totals in their signing year, at a pace of 35 per 82 or above. Meanwhile, all other forwards listed below scored at a pace of 25 goals per 82 or less in their signing year – so right away, we can tell DeBrusk likely doesn’t fall into the realm of the highest projections on the table for a three-year deal.

As a result, we’re likely looking at the $3.9M projection from the Ryan Hartman contract on the low end, to the $5.2M projection from the Jamie McGinn contract on the high end. Like the comps for four-year deals, we’re starting to see a good chunk of the comps come in below the $5M mark though. Of the 11 comps, we also see a pretty defined range from five of them, all between $4.68M and $5.06M.

One of the comps that acts as a solid projection is Frank Vatrano. It’s one of the most recent contracts and Vatrano was the same age as DeBrusk in the first year of the contract, with similar goal totals as well. As a result, the payment rate from the Vatrano contract, projecting a $4.75M cap hit, is a fair prediction for the unlikely scenario where DeBrusk takes a three-year deal.


2 YEARS

DeBrusk may be coming off back-to-back two-year deals, but the likelihood of another is low. His last two contracts were signed as a restricted free agent, and still at just 28 years old, he’s set himself up for a longer deal.

PlayerAgeFirst Year
of Contract
Signing
Year
G&P/82
Career
G&P/82
Mid
Point
Cap HitOn
$88M
Cap
Payment
Rate
Projection
Jake DeBrusk28202419-41
80GP
24-47
465GP
22-44
Andreas Athanasiou29202320-40
81GP
22-42
459GP
21-41$4.25M
2 years
$4.48M
2 years
1.09$4.81M
2 years
Marcus Johansson29201918-42
58GP
17-47
588GP
18-45$4.50M
2 years
$4.86M
2 years
1.08$4.75M
2 years
**Jake DeBrusk26202221-37
58GP
22-43
302GP
22-40$4.00M
2 years
$4.27M
2 years
1.07$4.69M
2 years
David Perron28201614-42
71GP
20-48
570GP
17-45$3.75M
2 years
$4.52M
2 years
1.00$4.42M
2 years
*Tyler Bertuzzi26202127-56
80GP
21-50
208GP
24-53$4.75M
2 years
$5.11M
2 years
0.96$4.24M
2 years
Viktor Olofsson27202223-56
72GP
24-55
188GP
24-56$4.75M
2 years
$5.07M
2 years
0.91$3.98M
2 years
Erik Haula30202114-34
51GP
17-35
456GP
16-35$2.38M
2 years
$2.57M
2 years
0.73$3.97M
2 years
Ryan Dzingel27201927-59
78GP
20-42
268GP
24-51$3.38M
2 years
$3.65M
2 years
0.72$3.86M
2 years
Dominik Kubalik27202216-34
78GP
25-47
202GP
21-41$2.50M
2 years
$2.67M
2 years
0.65$3.52M
2 years
Alexander Barabanov28202212-46
70GP
12-42
92GP
12-44$2.50M
2 years
$2.67M
2 years
0.61$3.28M
2 years
*Minimal games played in signing year – stats from that year before signing, as well as previous year are combined for Signing Year stats.
**Midseason signing – Signing Year stats calculated from games played in season where deal was signed.

If we did see him on another two-year contract though, projections would have him at somewhere between about $3.3M and $4.8M. From DeBrusk’s perspective though, there’s almost no reason to take a two-year deal if it’s lower than his current cap hit, with a possible pay-cut representing about half of these projections for that length.

As a result, we can expect probably he’s only taking a two-year deal if 1) he can’t get to a number he likes on a longer deal and 2) it’s higher than his current cap hit. In a scenario where a two-year deal at a reduced rate was his best offer, it arguably makes more sense to just go for a one-year deal, to try to bet on himself upping his production for a bigger deal next summer.

Again, a two-year deal is one of the least likely terms for a DeBrusk contract, but if he signed for that length, it’s likely coming in on the higher end of these projections. The payment rate from DeBrusk’s own most recent contract would have him up around the $4.7M mark, and somewhere around that range would likely be the expectation.


1 YEAR

One-year deals have become more popular for free agents recently, but there’s little chance of this being the case with DeBrusk.

PlayerAgeFirst Year
of Contract
Signing
Year
G&P/82
Career
G&P/82
Mid
Point
Cap HitOn
$88M
Cap
Payment
Rate
Projection
Jake DeBrusk28202419-41
80GP
24-47
465GP
22-44
Tyler Bertuzzi28202313-49
326GP
23-55
326GP
18-52$5.50M
1 year
$5.80M
1 year
1.11$4.90M
1 year
Mikael Granlund28202022-39
63GP
17-53
540GP
20-46$3.75M
1 year
$4.05M
1 year
0.88$3.87M
1 year
Andreas Athanasiou27202117-40
47GP
22-42
350GP
20-41$2.70M
1 year
$2.92M
1 year
0.71$3.12M
1 year
Max Domi27202213-44
72GP
17-51
501GP
15-48$3.00M
1 year
$3.20M
1 year
0.67$2.95M
1 year
Mike Hoffman30202134-70
69GP
29-60
493GP
32-65$4.00M
1 year
$4.32M
1 year
0.66$2.90M
1 year
Max Domi28202321-57
80GP
17-52
581GP
19-55$3.00M
1 year
$3.16M
1 year
0.56$2.46M
1 year
Erik Haula 29202021-41
48GP
17-35
405GP
19-38$1.75M
1 year
$1.89M
1 year
0.50$2.20M
1 year

Based on the seven comps above, six of them would project DeBrusk taking a pay-cut on a one-year deal. Perhaps he could end up closer to the high end of this range, a little below the $4.9M that the Bertuzzi deal suggests, but unless that’s the case, there’s really no reason to even take a one-year contract, in an effort to boost value.


Projection

Based on comparables, a deal between four and six years remains the most likely term for DeBrusk’s contract.

TermProjected Cap hitMaximum Cap HitMinimum Cap Hit
4 Years$5.00M$5.50M$4.50M
5 Years$5.25M$6.00M$4.75M
6 Years$5.25M$6.00M$5.00M

While unlikely, there’s also a chance DeBrusk could get a seven or eight-year deal.

TermProjected Cap hitMaximum Cap HitMinimum Cap Hit
7/8 Years$5.00M$6.00M$5.00M

If DeBrusk opted for a shorter-term deal, projections for contracts from one to three years are listed below as well.

TermProjected Cap hitMaximum Cap HitMinimum Cap Hit
1 Year$4.50M$5.00M$4.00M
2 Years$4.75M$5.00M$4.00M
3 Years$4.75M$5.00M$4.00M

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