Drouin revitalized his career in Colorado, but will he be back with the Avalanche next season?
Player Overview
Signing with the Colorado Avalanche this season represented somewhat of a full-circle moment for Jonathan Drouin, being reunited with junior hockey teammate Nathan MacKinnon.
The duo headlined an impressive Halifax Mooseheads team in the QMJHL more than a decade ago, leading to the pair of forwards being taken first and third overall respectively in 2013. While MacKinnon has solidified himself as one of the top forwards in the NHL though, Drouin’s career has been a little more up-and-down.
The winger began his NHL career with the Tampa Bay Lightning, but after somewhat of a strained relationship with the organization, Drouin requested a trade. He ended up being dealt to the Montreal Canadiens in the summer of 2017, with the Lightning acquiring Mikhail Sergachev.
Drouin saw some success in the first couple years with Montreal, but got into limited action in the back half of the deal. With some injury trouble, followed by a leave of absence, he suited up for just 163 games over the last four years in Montreal, and saw a decline in his performance.
This past season in Colorado though, Drouin managed to revitalize his career. After a slow start, he posted 48 points in his final 53 games of the season, for a total of 56 points in 79 games.
The winger has been a great fit with the Avalanche, and it seems like it’s in both the player and team’s best interest to extend his time in Colorado – but Drouin could attract interest if he hits free agency.
What We Know
- Jonathan Drouin’s agent, Allan Walsh, noted on SDPN that he met with Avalanche General Manager Chris MacFarland in Buffalo.
- Walsh noted that both the team and the player want to make a deal to keep Drouin in Colorado.
Comparables
Below, we take a look at what Drouin’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.
With Drouin now 29 years old, we’ll generally be looking at wingers who were near his age at the time of signing for the comparables used.
4 YEARS
While Drouin may have had an excellent comeback season, it’s difficult to see him getting more than a four-year deal. Both his signing year production and career production could indicate he should be due for a longer contract, but there’s still a very small sample size of improved play altogether.
The reality is that Drouin’s stats took a big hit over his final four seasons in Montreal, averaging a pace of less than 9 goals per 82 over those seasons. By the time last summer rolled around, he took a near league-minimum contract to remain in the NHL. Then even in Colorado, he started very slow, and his improved stats were a result of a very impressive 50-game stretch to end the year. But it’s unlikely to think that a team is going to be willing to commit to a longer term deal, based on a limited stretch of results.
As a result, four years is probably the maximum term we’d see for a Drouin deal.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $88M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Jonathan Drouin | 29 | 2024 | 20-58 79GP | 14-49 564GP | 17-54 | ||||
| Tomas Tatar | 27 | 2017 | 25-46 82GP | 24-46 345GP | 25-46 | $5.30M 4 years | $6.22M 4 years | 1.35 | $7.30M 4 years |
| Kyle Palmieri | 30 | 2021 | 16-34 51GP | 25-48 612GP | 21-41 | $5.00M 4 years | $5.40M 4 years | 1.32 | $7.11M 4 years |
| Mikael Granlund | 29 | 2021 | 21-43 51GP | 17-53 591GP | 19-48 | $5.00M 4 years | $5.40M 4 years | 1.13 | $6.08M 4 years |
| Mike Hoffman | 27 | 2016 | 30-62 78GP | 26-50 186GP | 28-56 | $5.19M 4 years | $6.26M 4 years | 1.12 | $6.03M 4 years |
| Mathieu Perreault | 29 | 2017 | 10-47 71GP | 18-41 361GP | 18-44 | $4.13M 4 years | $4.85M 4 years | 1.10 | $5.95M 4 years |
| **Mats Zuccarello | 28 | 2015 | 16-51 60GP | 17-52 204GP | 17-52 | $4.50M 4 years | $5.55M 4 years | 1.07 | $5.76M 4 years |
| Gustav Nyquist | 30 | 2019 | 22-61 81GP | 21-50 500GP | 22-56 | $5.50M 4 years | $5.94M 4 years | 1.06 | $5.73M 4 years |
| Mikkel Boedker | 27 | 2016 | 17-52 80GP | 15-40 463GP | 16-46 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.82M 4 years | 1.05 | $5.66M 4 years |
| Taylor Hall | 30 | 2021 | 15-51 53GP | 27-72 680GP | 21-62 | $6.00M 4 years | $6.48M 4 years | 1.04 | $5.64M 4 years |
| **Alex Iafallo | 28 | 2021 | 23-53 40GP | 16-39 267GP | 20-46 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.32M 4 years | 0.94 | $5.07M 4 years |
| Tyler Toffoli | 28 | 2020 | 29-53 68GP | 23-47 525GP | 26-50 | $4.25M 4 years | $4.59M 4 years | 0.92 | $4.96M 4 years |
| Evander Kane | 31 | 2022 | 42-74 43GP | 29-55 812GP | 36-65 | $5.13M 4 years | $5.47M 4 years | 0.84 | $4.54M 4 years |
| Evan Rodrigues | 30 | 2023 | 19-46 69GP | 15-36 385GP | 17-41 | $3.00M 4 years | $3.23M 4 years | 0.79 | $4.25M 4 years |
| Mason Marchment | 27 | 2021 | 27-71 54GP | 18-52 91GP | 23-62 | $4.50M 4 years | $4.86M 4 years | 0.78 | $4.23M 4 years |
| David Perron | 30 | 2018 | 19-77 70GP | 20-50 722GP | 20-64 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.43M 4 years | 0.69 | $3.74M 4 years |
The strong majority of these comps would have him up around $5M+, but this seems somewhat unrealistic. A lot of the comps had fairly sustained, year-to-year production leading up to the contract, where that wasn’t really the case for Drouin.
Perhaps a more realistic look would be towards the bottom end of the table, with the projections from contracts for Evander Kane, Evan Rodrigues, Mason Marchment and David Perron. Especially in the case of Marchment, it’s a deal signed fairly recently that represents a player with a limited sample size of strong production. Obviously, Drouin had much more career experience, but Marchment was coming off scoring 47 points in 54 games with the Florida Panthers, with minimal offensive impact in his career prior to that. It’s not the exact same scenario, but it’s likely a little more applicable.
Meanwhile, it was somewhat of a similar story with David Perron. The winger had huge production in Vegas, but obviously, the concern was whether or not he’d be able to repeat that success, which could have impacted his payment rate.
As a result, Drouin could be a little more in line for something in the low-to-mid $4M range for a cap hit on a four-year deal, rather than closer to the $5M or more that a lot of comps would project.
3 YEARS
There are far fewer comps for three-year deals for players around Drouin’s age and production, but we can still get a general range for a possible contract.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $88M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Jonathan Drouin | 29 | 2024 | 20-58 79GP | 14-49 564GP | 17-54 | ||||
| Evgenii Dadonov | 31 | 2020 | 30-56 69GP | 27-59 280GP | 29-58 | $5.00M 3 years | $5.40M 3 years | 0.93 | $5.03M 3 years |
| Michael Bunting | 27 | 2023 | 23-49 82GP | 25-55 187GP | 24-52 | $4.50M 3 years | $4.74M 3 years | 0.91 | $4.92M 3 years |
| *Ryan Hartman | 30 | 2024 | 21-51 59GP | 17-38 506GP | 19-45 | $4.00M 3 years | $4.00M 3 years | 0.89 | $4.80M 3 years |
| Mike Hoffman | 32 | 2021 | 27-57 82GP | 28-59 545GP | 28-58 | $4.50M 3 years | $4.86M 3 years | 0.84 | $4.52M 3 years |
| Anthony Duclair | 26 | 2021 | 34-64 74GP | 21-44 270GP | 28-54 | $3.00M 3 years | $3.24M 3 years | 0.60 | $3.24M 3 years |
Four of the five comps would have Drouin in a very defined range, between roughly $4.5M and $5M on a three-year deal. That said, the Anthony Duclair contract was an example of a player with very similar production who ultimately took a deal for quite a bit less.
There’s also the debate as to what the optimal term would be for Drouin, and there’s probably an argument for three years being the ideal length for a contract. With a three-year deal, a team is still getting the player for some term, but is taking on a little less risk than on a four-year contract, so the cap hit may even be a bit higher.
Drouin’s deal may not reach $5M like the Dadonov contract would project, but with both the Bunting and Hoffman deals being examples of players with very similar production taking a $4.5M cap hit on a three-year deal, it represents a realistic range for Drouin.
2 YEARS
A two-year deal would carry even less risk for the team, while still providing a bit of security for the player.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $88M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Jonathan Drouin | 29 | 2024 | 20-58 79GP | 14-49 564GP | 17-54 | ||||
| Andreas Athanasiou | 29 | 2023 | 20-40 81GP | 22-42 459GP | 21-41 | $4.25M 2 years | $4.48M 2 years | 1.09 | $5.90M 2 years |
| Marcus Johansson | 29 | 2019 | 18-42 58GP | 17-47 588GP | 18-45 | $4.50M 2 years | $4.86M 2 years | 1.08 | $5.83M 2 years |
| David Perron | 28 | 2016 | 14-42 71GP | 20-48 570GP | 17-45 | $3.75M 2 years | $4.52M 2 years | 1.00 | $5.42M 2 years |
| Tomas Tatar | 31 | 2021 | 16-49 50GP | 23-49 625GP | 20-49 | $4.50M 2 years | $4.86M 2 years | 0.99 | $5.35M 2 years |
| Viktor Olofsson | 27 | 2022 | 23-56 72GP | 24-55 188GP | 24-56 | $4.75M 2 years | $5.07M 2 years | 0.91 | $4.89M 2 years |
| Erik Haula | 30 | 2021 | 14-34 51GP | 17-35 456GP | 16-35 | $2.38M 2 years | $2.57M 2 years | 0.73 | $3.97M 2 years |
| Ryan Dzingel | 27 | 2019 | 27-59 78GP | 20-42 268GP | 24-51 | $3.38M 2 years | $3.65M 2 years | 0.72 | $3.86M 2 years |
| Dominik Kubalik | 27 | 2022 | 16-34 78GP | 25-47 202GP | 21-41 | $2.50M 2 years | $2.67M 2 years | 0.65 | $3.52M 2 years |
| Alexander Barabanov | 28 | 2022 | 12-46 70GP | 12-42 92GP | 12-44 | $2.50M 2 years | $2.67M 2 years | 0.61 | $3.28M 2 years |
We probably wouldn’t see a deal at $3.5M or less, based on the context behind the bottom two comps. Dominik Kubalik was coming off a down year where he didn’t even receive a qualifying offer, while Alexander Barabanov had played only 92 career NHL games when signing, which would’ve reduced both of their payment rates pretty dramatically.
At the same time, on the high side, Andreas Athanasiou was pretty clearly overpaid by Chicago (given cap space isn’t much of an issue for the team in the short-term). With that in mind, it likely counts out the Marcus Johansson contract from being much of a comparable as well, given it would also project Drouin at a similar cap hit to the Athanasiou deal.
This leaves a projected range of about $3.85M on the low end, to $5.40M on the high end for a possible two-year contract, with five comps in that range.
Still, it’s pretty hard to imagine Drouin getting more on a two-year deal than a three or four-year deal, based on the projections at the other terms. So more likely, we’re looking towards the low end of that range, somewhere possibly midway between the $3.85M and $4.90M mark.
1 YEAR
There’s also a chance we could see Drouin take a one-year deal. We’ve seen it become a little more popular for players over recent years, in the hopes to build value for a larger contract later. Given Drouin has a limited sample size of increased production after a few down years, he could be a candidate to opt for this strategy.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $88M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Jonathan Drouin | 29 | 2024 | 20-58 79GP | 14-49 564GP | 17-54 | ||||
| Tyler Bertuzzi | 28 | 2023 | 13-49 326GP | 23-55 326GP | 18-52 | $5.50M 1 year | $5.27M 1 year | 1.11 | $5.99M 1 year |
| Mikael Granlund | 28 | 2020 | 22-39 63GP | 17-53 540GP | 20-46 | $3.75M 1 year | $4.05M 1 year | 0.88 | $4.75M 1 year |
| Andreas Athanasiou | 27 | 2021 | 17-40 47GP | 22-42 350GP | 20-41 | $2.70M 1 year | $2.92M 1 year | 0.71 | $3.85M 1 year |
| Max Domi | 27 | 2022 | 13-44 72GP | 17-51 501GP | 15-48 | $3.00M 1 year | $3.20M 1 year | 0.67 | $3.60M 1 year |
| Mike Hoffman | 30 | 2021 | 34-70 69GP | 29-60 493GP | 32-65 | $4.00M 1 year | $4.32M 1 year | 0.66 | $3.59M 1 year |
| Max Domi | 28 | 2023 | 21-57 80GP | 17-52 581GP | 19-55 | $3.00M 1 year | $3.16M 1 year | 0.56 | $3.10M 1 year |
| Erik Haula | 29 | 2020 | 21-41 48GP | 17-35 405GP | 19-38 | $1.75M 1 year | $1.89M 1 year | 0.50 | $2.69M 1 year |
Looking at the comps, we see an outlier on the low end in Erik Haula, and an outlier on the high end in Tyler Bertuzzi, but all five of the other comps would project Drouin between a $3.10M and $4.75M cap hit. That said, we also see an even more defined range with three projections, all between $3.59M and $3.85M.
Separately: in terms of the actual cap hits for the comps as well, aside from the Haula and Bertuzzi outliers, they’d all come in between $2.7M and $4M. So other than the single projection from the Mikael Granlund contract, there really isn’t anything else within these comps that would suggest above a $4M cap hit for Drouin on a one-year deal.
So any possible contract for Drouin is most likely to come in between the $3M and $4M mark, and given the range set between the projections from Athanasiou, Domi (2022), and Hoffman deals, signs would point to it being in the upper end of that range.
Projection
It’s tough to project Drouin’s exact term, but we could realistically see a deal anywhere between one to four years, with a different cap hit projected depending on the length of the contract.
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 1 Year | $3.75M | $4.75M | $3.00M |
| 2 Years | $4.25M | $5.00M | $3.50M |
| 3 Years | $4.50M | $5.00M | $4.00M |
| 4 Years | $4.25M | $5.00M | $3.50M |
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