The defenseman could face a change of scenery for the first time in his NHL career.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

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Player Overview

Earning a full-time role with the Los Angeles Kings in the 2019-20 season, Matt Roy has been a fixture of the team’s blue line for the last half-decade.

While he won’t produce more than about 25 points per year, Roy is reliable defensively, and can be counted on for fairly consistent results. He was effective in a top-four role this season where he averaged close to 21 minutes per game, while paired with Vladislav Gavrikov.

Roy has been a good fit in Los Angeles, and the strength of the Kings’ top-four group is a big component of the team’s makeup. This season, Los Angeles had the third-fewest goals allowed, along with the fifth-fewest expected goals against per game (according to NaturalStatTrick.com). Roy also played a major role on the team’s penalty kill – which ranked second in the NHL – averaging the most shorthanded time on ice per game of any player on the team.

However, with Drew Doughty still under contract until 2027, and both Jordan Spence and Brandt Clarke poised for larger roles, it seems likely that Roy heads to the open market.

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What We Know

• Per The Fourth Period’s Dennis Bernstein, the Kings and Matt Roy were still expected to discuss his contract status as of last week.

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Comparables

Below, we take a look at what Roy’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, visit the About the Site page.

With Roy being 29 years old heading into free agency, comparables were generally kept to defensemen who were between 27 and 31 years old by Dec. 31 of the first year of their contract.

8 YEARS

An eight-year deal for Roy is incredibly unlikely for two reasons: 1) the Kings are the only team able to sign him to this length of a deal and 2) there’s almost no precedent for a player of Roy’s calibre receiving that kind of term at his age anyways.

Looking at the comparables for eight-year deals, the majority of players were legitimate top-pairing defenders at the time in which they signed, with much more ice time and/or much better production than Roy.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88.0M Cap Hit
Matt Roy	29	2024	25 81GP	24 369GP	20:54	19:28
*Oliver Ekman-Larsson	28	2019	42 82GP	41 576GP	23:41	23:39	$8.25M 8 years	$8.91M 8 years
John Carlson	28	2018	68 82GP	45 608GP	24:47	23:00	$8.00M 8 years	$8.86M 8 years
*Brent Seabrook	31	2016	31 82GP	34 763GP	22:11	22:29	$6.88M 8 years	$8.29M 8 years
***Morgan Rielly	28	2022	51 63GP	44 580GP	23:43	21:53	$7.50M 8 years	$8.00M 8 years
***Noah Hanifin	27	2024	47 77GP	34 675GP	23:37	20:29	$7.35M 8 years	$7.35M 8 years
*Cam Fowler	27	2018	40 80GP	36 494GP	24:51	22:48	$6.50M 8 years	$7.19M 8 years
*Colton Parayko	29	2022	31 32GP	34 418GP	21:20	21:43	$6.50M 8 years	$6.93M 8 years
***Hampus Lindholm	28	2022	30 61GP	31 589GP	22:32	22:11	$6.50M 8 years	$6.93M 8 years
*Ryan Ellis	28	2019	60 44GP	36 396GP	23:31	19:36	$6.25M 8 years	$6.75M 8 years
*MacKenzie Weeger	29	2023	45 80GP	32 306GP	23:22	19:33	$6.25M 8 years	$6.59M 8 years
*Travis Sanheim	27	2023	32 80GP	28 335GP	22:58	20:18	$6.25M 8 years	$6.59M 8 years
Damon Severson	29	2023	33 81GP	33 647GP	19:57	21:11	$6.25M 8 years	$6.59M 8 years
*Ryan Pulock	28	2022	25 56GP	35 290GP	22:27	21:03	$6.15M 8 years	$6.56M 8 years
Adam Pelech	27	2021	21 56GP	20 303GP	21:03	19:16	$5.75M 8 years	$6.21M 8 years
***Gustav Forsling	28	2024	42 63GP	33 397GP	21:48	20:27	$5.75M 8 years	$5.75M 8 years
*Erik Cernak	26	2023	19 55GP	21 226GP	19:09	19:15	$5.20M 8 years	$5.48M 8 years

I haven’t bothered to include any deals above a $9M adjusted cap hit (including contracts for the likes of Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty, Roman Josi, Victor Hedman, etc), as obviously, Roy getting that high of a cap hit on any possible deal is wildly unrealistic.

Even with the strong majority of these comps listed though, you see that Roy’s numbers aren’t really at the standard of most players who receive an eight-year deal, both on a production and usage basis. Still, looking towards the bottom of the table, you do see some defenders that measure up a little better to Roy’s numbers.

Roy’s stats are somewhat similar to those of Erik Cernak, Adam Pelech, and even maybe Ryan Pulock. But it’s also important to include context: Cernak was coming off back-to-back Stanley Cups when he signed his deal, while Pelech and Pulock formed what was one of the NHL’s most effective shutdown pairings in their back-to-back Conference Final appeances.

Roy, on the other hand, won’t see any boost in value following deep playoff runs. More importantly, he’s also older than each one of those players was when they signed their eight-year deal, meaning Roy would have a higher chance of performance decline by the end of the deal.

Realistically, Roy is probably only getting an eight-year deal if it means a reduced cap hit. Even with that, the likelihood is extremely low.

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7 YEARS

Even at seven years (the maximum term Roy could sign as of July 1), there’s just really not much pointing to this length of a contract being a realistic option.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88.0M Cap
Matt Roy	29	2024	25 81GP	24 369GP	20:54	19:28
Dougie Hamilton	28	2021	63 55GP	46 607GP	22:43	20:27	$9.00M 7 years	$9.71M 7 years
Alex Pietrangelo	30	2020	61 70GP	49 758GP	24:11	24:38	$8.80M 7 years	$9.50M 7 years
*Jared Spurgeon	31	2020	43 82GP	35 591GP	24:09	22:21	$7.58M 7 years	$8.18M 7 years
Keith Yandle	30	2016	47 82GP	46 661GP	19:58	21:10	$6.35M 7 years	$7.65M 7 years
*Ryan McDonagh	30	2019	38 63GP	37 530GP	23:20	23:30	$6.75M 7 years	$7.29M 7 years
**Devon Toews	30	2024	52 81GP	48 315GP	25:06	23:01	$7.25M 7 years	$7.25M 7 years
*Justin Faulk	28	2019	35 82GP	38 559GP	22:25	23:16	$6.50M 7 years	$7.02M 7 years
Torey Krug	29	2020	66 61GP	66 61GP	20:29	20:19	$6.50M 7 years	$7.02M 7 years
*Jonas Brodin	28	2021	33 69GP	22 555GP	21:33	21:50	$6.00M 7 years	$6.48M 7 years
Scott Mayfield	31	2023	24 82GP	21 428GP	21:01	19:12	$3.50M 7 ears	$3.69M 7 years

Once agian, compared to most of the comps listed, Roy just really isn’t overly close in terms of production and/or usage.

Jonas Brodin may be the first comp on the list that Roy’s stats can be realistically compared against, but the career usage still isn’t really all that close, and Brodin also had better signing year production.

Really, the best comp on this table is Scott Mayfield: the production, usage, and career experience are extremely similar. The difference is that Mayfield signed his deal at two years older than Roy, so you can expect Roy would have more value than the $3.7M adjusted cap hit from Mayfield’s deal. Still though, probably the only way Roy ends up at seven years is if a team is willing to give more term in exchange for a lower cap hit, which was similar to the structure of the Mayfield deal (even if it was still far too long of a deal).

So while Roy likely comes in quite a ways above that $3.7M mark on a seven-year deal, the chances of that length of contract are still likely based on a lower cap hit than on a shorter-term deal.

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6 YEARS

Six years typically hasn’t been a traditional length of contract for a defenseman in his late-20s hitting free agency. Usually, you’re seeing them either hit seven/eight years, or getting five years or less.

That said, we did see Ryan Graves take a six-year deal last year, which points towards it being a reality for Roy.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88.0M Cap
Matt Roy	29	2024	25 81GP	24 369GP	20:54	19:28
**Nate Schmidt	28	2019	39 84GP	24 284GP	22:14	18:08	$5.95M 6 years	$6.42M 6 years
Ryan Graves	28	2023	27 78GP	27 302GP	19:57	18:59	$4.50M 6 years	$4.74M 6 years

Graves is a very comparable player to Roy in terms of his stats before signing. The production was almost identical, and his ice time in both his signing year, and over his career, was within a minute of Roy’s ice time. So while Roy wouldn’t reach the $6.4M adjusted cap hit from the Nate Schmidt contract, Graves is maybe the best comparable available at any length of deal.

The defenseman signed a $4.5M contract last offseason, which adjusts to about $4.75M per year on an $88M salary cap. Roy’s slightly higher usage could push him a little above this to the $5M mark, but regardless, Graves’ deal acts as an excellent comparable.

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5 YEARS

Five years is another realistic term for a Roy contract.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88.0M Cap
Matt Roy	29	2024	25 81GP	24 369GP	20:54	19:28
Alex Goligoski	31	2016	37 82GP	40 562GP	23:50	22:37	$5.45M 5 years	$6.57M 5 years
Tyler Myers	29	2019	32 80GP	34 635GP	20:21	22:22	$6.00M 5 years	$6.48M 5 years
*Rasmus Ristolainen	28	2022	23 50GP	36 592GP	21:26	23:37	$5.10M 5 years	$5.44M 5 years
Jamie Oleksiak	29	2021	21 56GP	16 369GP	20:29	16:09	$4.60M 5 years	$4.97M 5 years

Of the comparables, Roy isn’t overly close to Alex Goligoski stats-wise, with Goligoski’s contract working out to a $6.5M adjusted cap hit. His numbers were a little more comparable to those of Tyler Myers, but the only category he was really comparable to Roy was in signing year ice time, with Myers a ways above him in all other categories.

At the same time though, Roy’s numbers are also quite a bit better than Jamie Oleksiak’s stats, besting him in every category. As a result, we can expect Roy to be above Oleksiak’s $4.95M adjusted cap hit on a five-year deal. Given $5M was the projection for a six-year deal, expecting a higher cap hit at five years also checks out, given the team signing him is taking a little less risk with the term.

This leads to the comparison with the Rasmus Ristolainen contract, which would project roughly a $5.45M cap hit. While Ristolainen’s career numbers may have been better than Roy’s, the signing year stats were very comparable. So though it’s possible Roy may not quite reach a $5.5M cap hit on a possible five-year deal, he probably wouldn’t be too far off, either.

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4 YEARS

While not as likely as a five or six-year deal, four years is probably the shortest contract we’d see for Roy.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88.0M Cap
Matt Roy	29	2024	25 81GP	24 369GP	20:54	19:28
Kevin Shattenkirk	28	2017	57 80GP	50 480GP	19:56	21:06	$6.65M 4 years	$7.80M 4 years
*Jared Spurgeon	27	2016	44 32GP	30 307GP	22:18	21:01	$5.19M 4 years	$6.26M 4 years
*Jake Muzzin	31	2020	35 52GP	36 578GP	21:36	21:15	$5.63M 4 years	$6.08M 4 years
T.J. Brodie	30	2021	24 64GP	34 634GP	20:27	22:35	$5.00M 4 years	$5.40M 4 years
Ben Chiarot	31	2022	29 76GP	20 489GP	22:51	18:38	$4.75M 4 years	$5.07M 4 years
*Artem Zub	28	2023	22 95GP	23 142GP	21:11	20:15	$4.50M 4 years	$4.74M 4 years
Jake Gardiner	29	2019	40 62GP	36 551GP	21:13	21:21	$4.05M 4 years	$4.37M 4 years

Of the four-year comps, Roy is well outside the range of both the Shattenkirk and Spurgeon contracts, based on usage and production. Then while he may be a little closer to Jake Muzzin’s numbers, he’s still well off, which should definitively put him below a $6M cap hit, even on a four-year deal.

He’d be above Jake Gardiner regardless of the stat comparison (given Gardiner was seen as much more of an offensive defenseman who could be prone to defensive issues), and the contracts for T.J. Brodie, Ben Chiarot and Artem Zub are a more realistic look at Roy’s range for a cap hit on a four-year deal. These would put him somewhere between $4.75M and $5.5M.

Roy’s numbers were very comparable to Zub’s, but the difference is that Roy also had much more career experience at the time. As a result, there was likely a bit lower of a ceiling on what Zub could make, so the expectation is that Roy would come in above him.

Chiarot’s numbers were also pretty similar to what we saw from Roy. Chiarot had the better signing year statistically, but Roy had better numbers and more ice time over his career. Meanwhile, Roy had very similar signing year stats to Brodie, but his career numbers were quite a bit lower, pointing to the fact that any projection should probably be a bit lower than Brodie’s $5.4M adjusted cap hit.

So with the comps, we can generally expect a pretty similar cap hit for Roy to what we’d see on a five or six-year deal, at $5M or a little north. While a team may offer Roy a higher cap hit at four years than at five or six, with such minimal term, it’s tough to see a scenario where it would make sense for Roy to take a shorter deal.

Another point that makes a four-year deal for Roy unlikely: if you look at the most comparable four-year contracts, there’s a reason as to why they received that four-year term instead of a longer deal. With Zub, a lack of career experience probably came into play, while with Chiarot, Brodie and even Muzzin, all were older than Roy at the time of signing, likely scaring away any team from going longer-term, with a possible decline nearing.

So while a four-year deal is possible, it’s tough to see Roy that low in term.

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3 YEARS

I’ve included three-year comps here as well, but there’s almost no scenario for Roy to take that length of deal.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88.0M Cap
Matt Roy	29	2024	25 81GP	24 369GP	20:54	19:28
Mike Green	30	2015	51 72GP	51 575GP	19:06	22:11	$6.00M 3 years	$7.39M 3 years
Justin Schultz	27	2017	54 78GP	38 344GP	20:27	21:21	$5.50M 3 years	$6.45M 3 years
Tyson Barrie	30	2021	70 56GP	53 610GP	21:24	21:45	$4.50M 3 years	$4.88M 3 years
Kevin Shattenkirk	31	2020	40 70GP	46 679GP	18:24	20:35	$3.90M 3 years	$4.21M 3 years

Even looking at the comps, all of these defenders shared a similar trait: they were primarily offensive defensemen. There can be some hesitancy for teams to go long-term with defensemen that are offense-first, but need to be sheltered at times defensively.

We can’t even really gauge what Roy would make at this length of a deal, but you have to imagine he only considers three years rather than a longer-term deal if it’s at a much higher cap hit than he’d get at other lengths. A three-year deal sets him up to re-enter the market at 32 years old, which is a risk.

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1/2 YEARS

An emerging trend over the last couple years has been seeing more high-profile UFAs take a short-term contract.

There’s mainly two scenarios where this plays out: either a player was offered a substantially higher cap hit on a short-term deal, or the player opts for a ‘bet on yourself’ kind of contract, hoping to increase their value and set themselves up for a more expensive deal later.

With two-year deals, we’ve seen each of these scenarios play out recently. Orlov signed a contract last year that carried a much higher cap hit than he likely would’ve received on a longer deal, while Gavrikov opted to see if he could drive up his value.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88.0M Cap
Matt Roy	29	2024	25 81GP	24 369GP	20:54	19:28
Dmitry Orlov	32	2023	45 66GP	32 709GP	22:33	20:15	$7.75M 2 years	$8.17M 2 years
Vladislav Gavrikov	28	2023	22 72GP	24 276GP	21:58	20:48	$5.88M 2 years	$6.20M 2 years

Obviously, Roy’s numbers are nowhere near those of Orlov. However, Roy and Gavrikov had very similar production, and Roy’s ice time is only about one minute lower through both his signing year, and over his career.

So while he’s probably not quite getting to Gavrikov’s $6.2M adjusted cap hit, there could be a team willing to get close. If a team was to get near the $6M mark to overpay for short-term help, and Roy wasn’t offered that high of a deal at any other term, there’s at least an argument for him to take the short-term deal, then try to set himself up for a second pay-day in two years.

The other option would be a one-year deal, which we’ve seen for John Klingberg, then Matt Dumba over the last two offseasons.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $88.0M Cap
Matt Roy	29	2024	25 81GP	24 369GP	20:54	19:28
John Klingberg	30	2022	52 74GP	56 552GP	22:13	22:59	$7.00M 1 year	$7.47M 1 year
Matt Dumba	30	2023	15 79GP	32 598GP	21:17	20:37	$3.90M 1 year	$4.11M 1 year

However, neither Klingberg or Dumba set themselves up any better with their one-year deal, and the Klingberg whiff of turning down a long-term contract is sure to scare off some other players from this strategy. There’s inherent risk in taking a ‘bet on yourself’ contract: if you can’t prove yourself on that deal, your value is only going to drop. So a one-year deal for Roy at market value is possible, but remains highly unlikely.

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Projection

A five or six-year deal is the most likely term for Roy’s next contract, with the cap hit likely being higher at five years than six.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
5 Years	$5.30M	$6.00M	$5.00M
6 Years	$5.00M	$5.25M	$4.75M

A four-year deal would be the next most-likely term, though with a big market for defensemen this summer, it’s likely that Roy gets a longer deal.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
4 Years	$5.25M	$5.50M	$5.00M

There’s also the option for Roy to take a higher-priced deal at a shorter term. It’s an unlikely bet, but if he did this, a two-year deal would be most likely, followed by a one-year deal, with a three-year deal as the least-likely scenario.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
2 Years	$5.75M	$5.50M	$5.00M
1 Year	$5.75M	$6.00M	$5.50M
3 Years	$5.75M	$6.00M	$5.25M

Then there’s also always the chance Roy could get a surprise maximum-term deal, either at seven years in free agency, or even at eight years with the Kings before then. It’s an unlikely scenario, but if a team is willing overpay to get the defenseman long-term, there’s always a chance.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
7 Years	$4.71M	$5.25M	$4.50M
8 Years	$4.50M	$5.25M	$4.25M