With a Necas trade likely on the horizon, what could an acquiring team spend on his contract?
Player Overview
Originally drafted 12th overall in 2017, Martin Necas has worked his way into a top-six role with the Carolina Hurricanes. While his production has been a little inconsistent from year to year, he’s capable of high-end offense when at his best, and notably posted 28 goals and 71 points in 82 games during the 2022-23 season.
There’s a real argument that Necas may have more raw, offensive talent than any other player on the Hurricanes. He’s a great skater and has the puck control/agility to get the puck to more dangerous areas. Then even though he doesn’t shoot the puck as much as he probably should, Necas also has an excellent shot and has high-end playmaking ability to find teammates in great spots.
However, unlike fellow Hurricanes RFA Seth Jarvis, the difference is that Necas’ game still feels a little incomplete. He’s not going to be anything special defensively, isn’t always the most effective forechecker, and sometimes doesn’t engage enough physically in battles. Even offensively, his contributions aren’t always consistent from game to game.
Heading into the offseason, Necas’ name has been at the top of all trade speculation. He has the ability to be a legitimate star, but it’s a matter of putting it all together. He could also benefit from a system where he’ll be able to carry the puck more with speed and attack off the rush, so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a spike in the winger’s production, if he does end up in a new home.
What We Know
- Martin Necas is available for trade, and the winger heading back to Carolina for the 2024-25 season is ‘not the preferred option’, according to Elliotte Friedman.
- Per an interview with Czech outlet Denik Sport, Necas’ father reportedly said that Necas was not happy with his usage in Carolina, and wanted to be on the top line and top power play unit.
- According to Friedman, the ask for Necas in a potential trade is big.
- Some of the teams who have been interested in Necas are the Montreal Canadiens and Philadelphia Flyers (per Pierre LeBrun), as well as the Calgary Flames, Columbus Blue Jackets and Vancouver Canucks (per Frank Seravalli).
Comparables
Below, we take a look at a possible contract for Necas. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.
For the comparables, we’ll try to stick to wingers around Necas’ age who had comparable production at the time of signing their contract.
8 YEARS
While an eight-year deal for Necas would be one of the most likely projected contract lengths, if it was a deal with another team, it would require a sign-and-trade. We saw it with Pierre-Luc Dubois last year, and it’s a strong possibility for Necas.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $87.7M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Martin Necas | 25 | 2024 | 26-56 77GP | 22-55 362GP | 24-56 | ||||
| Jeff Skinner | 27 | 2019 | 40-63 82GP | 30-55 661GP | 35-59 | $9.00M 8 years | $9.68M 8 years | 1.64 | $9.19M 8 years |
| Patrick Kane | 27 | 2015 | 34-82 69GP | 28-78 515GP | 31-80 | $10.50M 8 years | $12.89M 8 years | 1.61 | $9.03M 8 years |
| Timo Meier | 27 | 2023 | 42-69 78GP | 28-57 472GP | 35-63 | $8.80M 8 years | $9.24M 8 years | 1.47 | $8.21M 8 years |
| Jakub Voracek | 27 | 2016 | 22-81 82GP | 19-57 531GP | 21-69 | $8.25M 8 years | $9.91M 8 years | 1.44 | $8.04M 8 years |
| Mark Stone | 27 | 2019 | 26-82 64GP | 28-70 366GP | 27-76 | $9.50M 8 years | $10.22M 8 years | 1.35 | $7.53M 8 years |
| *Owen Tippett | 25 | 2024 | 32-53 46GP | 22-41 238GP | 27-47 | $6.20M 8 years | $6.20M 8 years | 1.32 | $7.39M 8 years |
| Vladimir Tarasenko | 24 | 2015 | 39-78 77GP | 30-62 179GP | 35-70 | $7.50M 8 years | $9.21M 8 years | 1.32 | $7.37M 8 years |
| **Roope Hintz | 27 | 2023 | 36-77 103GP | 28-61 261GP | 31-69 | $8.45M 8 years | $8.88M 8 years | 1.29 | $7.20M 8 years |
| Jesper Bratt | 25 | 2023 | 32-73 82GP | 22-58 389GP | 27-66 | $7.88M 8 years | $8.28M 8 years | 1.25 | $7.03M 8 years |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 27 | 2022 | 30-69 62GP | 14-35 405GP | 22-52 | $6.13M 8 years | $6.52M 8 years | 1.25 | $7.02M 8 years |
| *David Pastrnak | 27 | 2023 | 58-112 61GP | 41-84 571GP | 50-98 | $11.25M 8 years | $11.82M 8 years | 1.21 | $6.75M 8 years |
| Jordan Kyrou | 25 | 2023 | 30-83 74GP | 22-58 173GP | 26-71 | $8.13M 8 years | $8.54M 8 years | 1.20 | $6.73M 8 years |
| Nikita Kucherov | 26 | 2019 | 40-103 80GP | 33-75 365GP | 37-89 | $9.50M 8 years | $10.22M 8 years | 1.15 | $6.43M 8 years |
| Matthew Tkachuk | 25 | 2022 | 42-104 82GP | 29-73 431GP | 36-89 | $9.50M 8 years | $10.10M 8 years | 1.13 | $6.35M 8 years |
| ***Brandon Hagel | 26 | 2024 | 30-65 81GP | 25-51 211GP | 28-58 | $6.50M 8 years | $6.50M 8 years | 1.12 | $6.28M 8 years |
** Deal signed early into season – stats from that year before signing, as well as previous year are combined for Signing Year stats
***Deal signed one year out – stats from that year before signing used for signing year P/82
Of the comparables, the two outlier contracts in terms of the most expensive deals were Jeff Skinner and Patrick Kane. While both contracts project Necas at $9M or more, Skinner was overpaid to stay in Buffalo as a pending UFA, and Patrick Kane was coming off a multiple Stanley Cup wins, so these aren’t overly realistic comps.
At the same time, many of the comps projecting a much cheaper deal for Necas shouldn’t be taken too seriously, either. All of Valeri Nichushkin, David Pastrnak, Jordan Kyrou, Nikita Kucherov and Matthew Tkachuk were coming off a huge outlier signing year in terms of production, which would have skewed the look of the comp with a lower payment rate.
The range we’re likely looking at for an eight-year deal comes from seven comps between Jesper Bratt at a $7M projection on the low end, and Timo Meier at a $8.2M projection on the high-end.
At the same time, on the higher end of those projections, Jakub Voracek and Mark Stone were on their way to UFA status rather than RFA status, which would have driven up their price tag. Meanwhile, Timo Meier was overpaid after a 40-goal season, and Necas doesn’t have the same recency bias in terms of huge signing year production to inflate his cost. So we’re likely looking towards the lower end of this range for a more realistic view of Necas’ projected cap hit on an eight-year deal.
Owen Tippett is an example of a player who received an eight-year deal despite having lower production than a lot of the other comps (like Necas), so the $7.4M projection for a Necas contract is reasonable. Meanwhile though, Jesper Bratt actually did have fairly similar career production and experience prior to signing, so the $7M projection from his deal acts as a fairly accurate view as well.
Realistically, the best chance is that the deal lands somewhere in that range, perhaps midway between the $7M and $7.4M mark.
7 YEARS
In the scenario where there wasn’t a sign-and-trade, a seven-year deal would be the most likely outcome for the contract.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $87.7M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Martin Necas | 25 | 2024 | 26-56 77GP | 22-55 362GP | 24-56 | ||||
| Evander Kane | 27 | 2018 | 30-57 78GP | 27-51 574GP | 29-54 | $7.00M 7 years | $7.72M 7 years | 1.43 | $8.01M 7 years |
| Kyle Connor | 23 | 2019 | 34-66 82GP | 31-59 178GP | 33-63 | $7.14M 7 years | $7.64M 7 years | 1.21 | $6.79M 7 years |
| Kevin Fiala | 26 | 2022 | 33-85 82GP | 24-55 419GP | 29-70 | $7.88M 7 years | $8.38M 7 years | 1.20 | $6.70M 7 years |
| Troy Terry | 26 | 2023 | 27-71 70GP | 22-53 274GP | 25-62 | $7.00M 7 years | $7.35M 7 years | 1.19 | $6.64M 7 years |
Of the comparables, three of the four would put Necas between $6.65M and $6.80M. It’s a pretty defined range, and the one outlier is Evander Kane, who was a pending unrestricted free agent at the time of signing, which would’ve undoubtedly driven up his price tag.
While the three other comps would all have Necas at around $6.75M though, if you look at the actual cap hits from the comps, they’ve all broken into the $7M range. Couple that with the fact that Necas would likely be at $7M or above on an eight-year deal, and there’s a decent chance he sneaks up to $7M on a seven-year deal, even if the comps would have him slightly lower.
5/6 YEARS
A five or six-year deal remains very unlikely for the winger, given that from a player’s perspective, there’s not really any advantage to take a deal at this term.
With Necas now 25 years old, a five or six-year deal would put him back to free agency in his-30s, which doesn’t set him up quite as well for another big payday. For Necas, it would make sense to either go long-term and get the maximum money possible now, or press for a three or four-year deal, to re-enter the market when he’s still only 28 or 29 years old.
Over recent years, we’ve really seen a shift away from wingers in their mid-20s signing for that length of deal.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $87.7M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Martin Necas | 25 | 2024 | 26-56 77GP | 22-55 362GP | 24-56 | ||||
| Jonathan Huberdeau | 24 | 2017 | 22-64 76GP | 17-52 272GP | 20-58 | $5.90M 6 years | $6.90M 6 years | 1.19 | $6.67M 6 years |
| Andre Burakovsky | 27 | 2022 | 23-63 80GP | 19-47 519GP | 21-55 | $5.50M 5 years | $5.85M 5 years | 1.06 | $5.96M 5 years |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 26 | 2021 | 26-64 56GP | 23-48 302GP | 25-56 | $5.40M 5 years | $5.81M 5 years | 1.04 | $5.81M 5 years |
| Teuvo Teravainen | 25 | 2019 | 17-67 48GP | 16-48 326GP | 17-58 | $5.40M 5 years | $5.81M 5 years | 1.00 | $5.61M 5 years |
| *Jake Guentzel | 25 | 2019 | 33-73 37GP | 27-59 159GP | 30-66 | $6.00M 5 years | $6.45M 5 years | 0.98 | $5.47M 5 years |
| Conor Garland | 25 | 2021 | 20-65 49GP | 24-48 164GP | 22-57 | $4.95M 5 years | $5.33M 5 years | 0.93 | $5.23M 5 years |
In terms of comparables, the six-year deal for Jonathan Huberdeau is really the only recent one we have, which would project a $40 million deal for Necas, at a $6.67M cap hit.
With the five-year deals though, while there’s consistency in the projections, seeing Necas on a five-year deal worth a cap hit of between only $5.2M and $6M is unlikely. Even if that’s what market value may dictate for Necas at that term, if that was the offer he was getting, it would just make sense to opt for a shorter deal and push towards UFA status instead.
Of the five comps for five-year deals, each also had either much less career experience (Guentzel and Garland), or were coming off outlier production in their signing year after lower production throughout their career (Burakovsky, Bjorkstrand and Teravainen), which may have cautioned teams to stay away from longer-term deals based on what could be unsustainable production.
3/4 YEARS
In cases where a maximum-term deal (or close to) isn’t realistic, we’ve seen more players in their mid-20s opt for shorter deals instead in recent years, getting themselves to free agency earlier. As a result, three and four-year deals have become a bit more popular.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $87.7M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Martin Necas | 25 | 2024 | 26-56 77GP | 22-55 362GP | 24-56 | ||||
| Patrik Laine | 24 | 2022 | 38-82 56GP | 35-66 407GP | 37-74 | $8.70M 4 years | $9.25M 4 years | 1.25 | $7.00M 4 years |
| Alex DeBrincat | 26 | 2023 | 27-66 82GP | 24-68 450GP | 26-67 | $7.88M 4 years | $8.28M 4 years | 1.24 | $6.92M 4 years |
| Pavel Buchnevich | 26 | 2021 | 30-73 54GP | 22-53 301GP | 26-63 | $5.80M 4 years | $6.24M 4 years | 0.99 | $5.55M 4 years |
| Anthony Mantha | 26 | 2020 | 31-72 43GP | 26-55 260GP | 29-64 | $5.70M 4 years | $6.13M 4 years | 0.96 | $5.37M 4 years |
| Sam Reinhart | 26 | 2021 | 38-61 54GP | 24-53 454GP | 31-57 | $6.50M 3 years | $6.99M 3 years | 1.23 | $6.87M 3 years |
| Brock Boeser | 25 | 2022 | 27-53 71GP | 31-65 324GP | 29-59 | $6.65M 3 years | $7.07M 3 years | 1.20 | $6.71M 3 years |
| Mikael Granlund | 25 | 2017 | 26-70 81GP | 15-51 321GP | 21-61 | $5.75M 3 years | $6.72M 3 years | 1.10 | $6.17M 3 years |
There’s also been a bit of a shift in what teams have been willing to pay on these. While in the past, less term meant a lower cap hit – and this is still often the case in a lot of other situations – Necas’ level of winger has recently been able to get equivalent value on a three/four-year deal, to what they would likely get on a longer deal. We saw this with Patrik Laine and Alex DeBrincat as two of the more recent examples.
You can also see that for both the four-year comps and the three-year comps, the more recent deals are the more expensive ones, with the higher payment rate. So if Necas did opt for a four-year deal, it’s likely still in the range of $7M (based on the Laine and DeBrincat comps), while a three-year deal would still have him only slightly lower than that, likely around $6.75M (based on the Reinhart and Boeser comps).
1/2 YEARS
Anything shorter than a three or four-year deal is unlikely for Necas.
Especially considering a trade seems likely, a team probably isn’t going to pay a steep price for Necas just to only sign him for a year or two. Especially with two-year deals, that length of extension would walk the winger right to UFA status. There’s also only a few really applicable comps for a two-year deal, which would project him between a $5.40M and $5.95M cap hit (a big step down from the projections for even a three-year deal).
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $87.7M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Martin Necas | 25 | 2024 | 26-56 77GP | 22-55 362GP | 24-56 | ||||
| **Jake DeBrusk | 26 | 2022 | 21-37 58GP | 22-43 302GP | 22-40 | $4.00M 2 years | $4.25M 2 years | 1.06 | $5.95M 2 years |
| Andre Burakovsky | 25 | 2020 | 28-64 58GP | 17-40 386GP | 23-52 | $4.90M 2 years | $5.27M 2 years | 1.01 | $5.68M 2 years |
| Jack Roslovic | 25 | 2022 | 22-46 81GP | 16-39 309GP | 19-43 | $4.00M 2 years | $4.25M 2 years | 0.99 | $5.54M 2 years |
| *Tyler Bertuzzi | 26 | 2021 | 27-56 80GP | 21-50 208GP | 24-53 | $4.75M 2 years | $5.11M 2 years | 0.96 | $5.40M 2 years |
* Minimal games played in signing year – stats from that year before signing, as well as previous year are combined for Signing Year stats.
A one-year contract, while still very unlikely, may be at least a bit more possible than a two-year deal. The scenario in which it could happen would be if the Hurricanes couldn’t get good value in a trade Necas for whatever reason and opted to pivot, with a one-year deal was agreed upon instead.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $87.7M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Martin Necas | 25 | 2024 | 26-56 77GP | 22-55 362GP | 24-56 | ||||
| Mark Stone | 26 | 2018 | 28-88 58GP | 25-67 307GP | 27-78 | $7.35M 1 year | $8.11M 1 year | 1.04 | $5.82M 1 year |
| Sam Reinhart | 25 | 2020 | 26-59 69GP | 22-52 200GP | 24-56 | $5.20M 1 year | $5.60M 1 year | 1.00 | $5.60M 1 year |
| Kevin Fiala | 25 | 2021 | 33-66 50GP | 22-48 337GP | 28-57 | $5.10M 1 year | $5.49M 1 year | 0.96 | $5.39M 1 year |
| Jesper Bratt | 24 | 2022 | 28-79 76GP | 19-54 307GP | 24-67 | $5.45M 1 year | $5.79M 1 year | 0.86 | $4.84M 1 year |
| Tyler Bertuzzi | 25 | 2020 | 24-55 71GP | 20-49 199GP | 22-52 | $3.50M 1 year | $3.77M 1 year | 0.72 | $4.06M 1 year |
Necas’ qualifying offer is just $3.5M, but given he’s arbitration-eligible, we can expect the number on any one-year deal would come in much higher.
Of the projections, aside from the Tyler Bertuzzi contract, the other comps would project Necas between $4.8M and $5.8M on a one-year deal. Of these, Reinhart and Fiala had the most similar production ‘mid-point’ to Necas, and thus may be the best comps, closer to the middle of that range.
Projection
If Necas gets a long-term deal, it’s a matter of whether it’s via sign-and-trade for an eight-year contract, or just taking a seven-year contract (assuming he is traded out of Carolina).
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 8 Years | $7.25M | $8.00M | $7.00M |
| 7 Years | $7.00M | $8.00M | $6.50M |
However, there’s also the possibility he opts for a shorter deal, to get himself to UFA status quicker and set himself up for another big payout later. In this scenario, comparables would suggest the cap hit remains close to the same as on a long-term deal.
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 4 Years | $7.00M | $7.50M | $6.50M |
| 3 Years | $6.75M | $7.00M | $6.00M |
An unlikely option would also be a short-term deal, at one or two years. Again, this is very unlikely to play out, but Necas would likely see a lower cap hit, projected around $5.5M at either length of contract.
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 2 Years | $5.50M | $6.00M | $5.40M |
| 1 Year | $5.45M | $5.85M | $4.80M |
The least likely term for a contract would be five or six years, for reasons discussed above. While all comparables point to a certain cap hit on a five-year deal, it also doesn’t even seem very realistic, seeing that comps for a five-year deal would have Necas getting maid much less than at similar contract lengths.
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 6 Years | $6.67M | $7.25M | $6.50M |
| 5 Years | $5.80M | $6.85M | $5.20M |
Hockey Comparables 
Leave a comment