With Swayman set for arbitration, what kind of contract can we expect?
Note: This article is in regards to a projection for Swayman’s 2023 contract. For a projection of his 2024 contract, it can be viewed here.
Player Overview
After being selected by the Boston Bruins in the fourth round of the 2017 NHL Draft, Jeremy Swayman spent the following three seasons with the University of Maine. He posted excellent numbers, and by his final season with the school, Swayman was named the NCAA’s top goaltender in 2019-20.
The netminder made the jump to professional hockey from there, splitting the shortened 2021 season between the AHL and NHL. It didn’t seem to matter Swayman was playing, putting up excellent numbers with limited action in both leagues. The goaltender managed a .933 save percentage in nine games with the Providence Bruins, along with a .945 save percentage in 10 NHL games.
As a result, Swayman joined the Bruins full-time in 2021-22 and has split the team’s workload with Linus Ullmark ever since. While Ullmark’s outstanding 2022-23 campaign meant Swayman took a little bit of a backseat, it’s telling the Bruins still used him for 37 games, considering his tandem partner was in the midst of a Vezina Trophy-winning season.
It’ll be interesting to see where the Bruins go from here. Swayman is turning just 25 years old in November and has all the makings of a legitimate NHL starter. That said, he arguably won’t get that chance in the next two years, with Ullmark under contract until 2025.
With the team and player unable to reach a new contract to this point as well, the sides look to be headed to arbitration.
What We Know
- If the sides get to arbitration on Sunday, a one-year deal is expected, based on the filings.
- Swayman filed for arbitration at $4.8M, while the Bruins filed at $2M.
Comparables
Below, we’ll take a look at goalies who were between 23 and 27 years old in the first year of their contract (by Dec. 31) and posted similar numbers before signing, to get a sense of what Swayman’s deal could look like.
Generally, comparables will be based on deals above a $3M cap hit, for goalies with less than 200 career games played.
4 YEARS
A four-year deal is almost surely the maximum Swayman would receive, if the teams settled prior to tomorrow’s arbitration date. There’s just too small of a sample size of play at this point for the Bruins to be willing to go longer.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV%/GP in Signing Year | % of Games Played in Signing Year | SV%/GP over Career | Contract | Adjusted to $83.5M cap |
| Jeremy Swayman | 25 | 2023 | 920 (37GP) | 45% | 920 (88GP) | ||
| Igor Shesterkin | 26 | 2021 | 932 (35GP) | 63% | 921 (47GP) | $5.67M 4 years | $5.81M 4 years |
| Juuse Saros | 26 | 2021 | 927 (36GP) | 64% | 920 (155GP) | $5.00M 4 years | $5.12M 4 years |
| Jake Allen | 27 | 2017 | 920 (47GP) | 57% | 915 (99GP) | $4.35M 4 years | $4.84M 4 years |
Additionally, Swayman didn’t play an overly high percentage of games in his signing year, at less than 50 percent. Even other goalies around the same age who had similarly limited career experience played a higher percentage of games before signing.
That said, if we go off the contracts for Shesterkin, Saros and Allen as comps, we can see somewhat of a range for a possible four-year deal. Shesterkin’s numbers in his signing year put him a ways above all others, but the $5M range set out by the Saros and Allen deals paints a more likely picture. Saros had the better signing year numbers and more experience, but Swayman had better career numbers than Allen with a very similar number of games played.
So while it’s unlikely we’d see this long of a deal, especially given the Bruins’ cap situation, a four-year contract for Swayman would likely come in around the $5M mark.
3 YEARS
Three years is more possible than a four-year deal, given it’s something we’ve frequently seen for young netminders with high potential but limited experience.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV%/GP in Signing Year | % of Games Played in Signing Year | SV%/GP over Career | Contract (1st year of deal) | Adjusted to $83.5M cap |
| Jeremy Swayman | 25 | 2023 | 920 (37GP) | 45% | 920 (88GP) | ||
| Ville Husso | 27 | 2022 | 919 (40GP) | 49% | 912 (57GP) | $4.75M 3 years | $4.81M 3 years |
| Spencer Knight | 22 | 2023 | 908 (32GP) | 39% | 909 (36GP) | $4.50M 3 years | $4.50M 3 years |
| Jacob Markstrom | 27 | 2017 | 915 (33GP) | 40% | 904 (83GP) | $3.67M 3 years | $4.09M 3 years |
| Carter Hart | 23 | 2021 | 877 (27GP) | 48% | 905 (101GP) | $3.98M 3 years | $4.08M 3 years |
| Jake Oettinger | 24 | 2022 | 914 (48GP) | 59% | 913 (77GP) | $4.00M 3 years | $4.05M 3 years |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | 23 | 2017 | 910 (24GP) | 29% | 913 (40GP) | $3.50M 3 years | $3.90M 3 years |
| Tristan Jarry | 25 | 2020 | 921 (33GP) | 47% | 914 (62GP) | $3.50M 3 years | $3.59M 3 years |
| Philipp Grubauer | 27 | 2018 | 923 (35GP) | 43% | 923 (101GP) | $3.33M 3 years | $3.50M 3 years |
| Alexander Georgiev | 26 | 2022 | 898 (33GP) | 40% | 908 (129GP) | $3.40M 3 years | $3.44M 3 years |
| Vitek Vanecek | 26 | 2022 | 908 (42GP) | 51% | 908 (79GP) | $3.40M 3 years | $3.44M 3 years |
Aside from Philipp Grubauer, Swayman posted better signing year and career numbers than pretty much every other goalie listed. It’s not like these comps were established starters with large workloads either – most had a similar percentage of games played to Swayman before signing.
There’s an argument to be made that Swayman’s worth more than every goalie listed. Even looking at the recent comps, Swayman pretty clearly carried more value than any of Husso, Knight, Hart of Oettinger at the time of signing.
Given we’re so close to arbitration though and the Bruins don’t have that much to spend, it’s hard to imagine the team going close to $5M for just three years. If it gets done, it’s probably still on the high end of the range of comps, but likely around the $4.5M mark (if we factor in Husso’s deal as an outlier).
2 YEARS
With each team filing at just a single year for arbitration, even two years seems unlikely.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV%/GP in Signing Year | % of Games Played in Signing Year | SV%/GP over Career | Contract | Adjusted to $83.5M cap |
| Jeremy Swayman | 25 | 2023 | 920 (37GP) | 45% | 920 (88GP) | ||
| Sergei Bobrovsky | 25 | 2013 | 932 (38GP) | 79% | 917 (121GP) | $5.63M 2 years | $7.31M 2 years |
| Adin Hill | 27 | 2023 | 915 (27GP) | 33% | 910 (101GP) | $4.90M 2 years | $4.90M 2 years |
| Petr Mrazek | 24 | 2016 | 921 (54GP) | 66% | 920 (94GP) | $4.00M 2 years | $4.58M 2 years |
| Jordan Binnington | 26 | 2019 | 927 (32GP) | 39% | 926 (33GP) | $4.40M 2 years | $4.51M 2 years |
| Elvis Merzlikins | 26 | 2020 | 923 (33GP) | 47% | 923 (33GP) | $4.00M 2 years | $4.10M 2 years |
| Alex Nedeljkovic | 25 | 2021 | 932 (23GP) | 41% | 928 (29GP) | $3.00M 2 years | $3.07M 2 years |
With Hill and Binnington each signing after Stanley Cup wins, and Bobrovsky and Nedeljkovic representing value on two different ends of the chart, the two best comps are Petr Mrazek and Elvis Merzlikins. Each netminder had nearly identical numbers to Swayman in both their signing year, as well as over their career.
With Mrazek, he played a much higher percentage of games, with an adjusted cap hit of $4.6M. Merzlikins, on the other hand, had a similar percentage of games played before signing, but his lack of career experience likely means Swayman should come in above his $4.1M adjusted cap hit. As a result, we’d likely see a two-year deal for Swayman somewhere within the $4.1M to $4.6M range.
1 YEAR
With Swayman’s arbitration hearing tomorrow, a one-year deal is by far the most likely scenario at this point.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV%/GP in Signing Year | % of Games Played in Signing Year | SV%/GP over Career | Contract | Adjusted to $83.5M cap |
| Jeremy Swayman | 25 | 2023 | 920 (37GP) | 45% | 920 (88GP) | ||
| Robin Lehner | 26 | 2017 | 920 (59GP) | 72% | 918 (166GP) | $4.00M 1 year | $4.45M 1 year |
| Ilya Samsonov | 26 | 2023 | 919 (42GP) | 51% | 908 (131GP) | $3.55M 1 year | $3.55M 1 year |
| Linus Ullmark | 27 | 2020 | 915 (34GP) | 49% | 911 (97GP) | $2.60M 1 year | $2.66M 1 year |
Based on the comps, we know he wouldn’t be as high as Robin Lehner’s adjusted cap hit, given he had far fewer games played in his signing year, as well as less experience. That said, we also know he’ll be higher than Ullmark’s $2.7M, with similar career experience and better numbers in both his signing year and career.
The middle ground between the team filing ($2M) and player filing ($4.8M) would be $3.4M, and while that’s a good starting point, it’s unlikely the decision just splits the difference.
Most people will view Ilya Samsonov as the best comp for Swayman, given the netminders are the same age and both opted for arbitration. Samsonov was awarded $3.55M on a one-year deal, slightly lower than the middle ground of $3.65M from that set of player and team filings.
However, signs point to the fact that Swayman could receive more than Samsonov. While their numbers were very similar this year and Samsonov even played a few more games, it’s the career stats that really make the difference. Swayman has been consistently very good throughout his career, posting a .920 save percentage – which is significantly higher than Samsonov’s .908 career save percentage. While Samsonov did have quite a bit more experience, the discrepancy between the career numbers still suggest Swayman should come in above Samsonov’s $3.55M mark.
So while there aren’t enough comps to really get a defined range, we’re probably looking at a deal a little above the $3.4M from the filings, likely somewhere between $3.5M and $4M.
Projection
Obviously at this point, a one-year deal is most likely for Swayman. Assuming the sides do make it to arbitration, the number should likely come in a little closer to Swayman’s filing than the team filing.
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 1 Year | $3.75M | $3.40M | $4.00M |
If the sides do settle on a deal before arbitration begins, somewhere between two and four years is possible for the extension.
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 2 Years | $4.25M | $4.25M | $3.50M |
| 3 Years | $4.50M | $5.00M | $4.00M |
| 4 Years | $5.00M | $5.50M | $4.50M |
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