Following a breakout year, Maccelli signed a three-year contract with the Arizona Coyotes.
The Arizona Coyotes signed forward Matias Maccelli to a three-year contract last week, which carries a $3.43M cap hit. The winger will remain a restricted free agent once the deal expires.
While all of our designated RFAs from the Top-50 Free Agents are receiving a projection article for their upcoming contract, Maccelli signed his deal before the projection was released. So instead, we’ll take a look at comparable contracts to evaluate how the contract looks for the Coyotes and whether it carries fair value.
Player Overview
Matias Maccelli has quietly put up excellent numbers in pretty much every league he’s played in.
The winger was selected by the Coyotes in the fourth round of the 2019 NHL Draft, after scoring 31 goals and 72 points in 62 USHL games. Maccelli turned professional from there, spending the next two seasons in Finland’s top league, where he scored 28 goals and 69 points in 94 games between the two seasons.
In 2021, Maccelli made the jump back to North America. At just 21 years old, he began to dominate in the AHL, scoring 57 points in 47 games to lead to Tucson Roadrunners in points. He also got into 23 NHL games with Arizona, managing six points.
Then this past year, the winger made the full-time jump to the NHL. Maccelli didn’t miss a beat, and scored an impressive 49 points in 64 games.
While he’s not the largest forward and really does not shoot the puck much (averaging less than a shot per game this year), Maccelli’s playmaking abilities and success in his first full NHL season inspire confidence in how big of a role he could play in the Coyotes future. Especially with an improving forward group, which added Jason Zucker and could see Logan Cooley make the jump, the Coyotes could be a sleeper to score a lot of goals next year.
Comparables
Below, we take a look at what Maccelli’s deal could’ve looked like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.
For the comparables, we’ll generally look at wingers around Maccelli’s age, who also signed their deal coming off their entry-level contract. The projection generated from each contract is listed in the far right column.
8 YEARS
An eight-year deal was unlikely for Maccelli, given the caliber of winger that length of contract is typically reserved for.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Matias Maccelli | 23 | 2023 | 14-63 (64GP) | 11-52 (87GP) | 13-58 | ||||
| Clayton Keller | 22 | 2020 | 14-47 (82GP) | 18-56 (167GP) | 16-52 | $7.15M 8 years | $7.33M 8 years | 1.41 | $8.18M 8 years |
| Andrei Svechnikov | 21 | 2021 | 22-63 (55GP) | 24-56 (205GP) | 23-60 | $7.75M 8 years | $7.94M 8 years | 1.32 | $7.68M 8 years |
| Cole Caufield | 22 | 2023 | 46-66 (46GP) | 35-56 (123GP) | 41-61 | $7.85M 8 years | $7.85M 8 years | 1.29 | $7.46M 8 years |
| Vladimir Tarasenko | 24 | 2015 | 39-78 (77GP) | 30-62 (179GP) | 35-70 | $7.50M 8 years | $8.77M 8 years | 1.25 | $7.27M 8 years |
While Maccelli’s production does put him near other comps for an eight-year deal, what stands out is his lack of experience. With just 87 games played, he has significantly less experience than the comps listed, meaning this length of a contract was unlikely.
Still, we do see a range of between $7.25M and $8.18M projected for Maccelli between the four comps for what it could have taken to get the winger locked up to a maximum-term contract, with three of those comps projecting between $7.27M and $7.68M for Maccelli.
Again though, with under 100 games played, it was unlikely the Coyotes would commit to the player at this kind of a price long-term.
7 YEARS
Seven years may have been more possible if the sides wanted to go long-term, with some other comps having limited experience at the time of singing as well.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Matias Maccelli | 23 | 2023 | 14-63 (64GP) | 11-52 (87GP) | 13-58 | ||||
| Brady Tkachuk | 22 | 2021 | 25-53 (56GP) | 25-52 (198GP) | 25-53 | $8.21M 7 years | $8.21M 7 years | 1.55 | $8.98M 7 years |
| Gabriel Landeskog | 22 | 2014 | 21-39 (36GP) | 22-48 (118GP) | 22-44 | $5.57M 7 years | $6.74M 7 years | 1.53 | $8.88M 7 years |
| Alex Tuch | 23 | 2019 | 16-39 (78GP) | 15-36 (84GP) | 16-38 | $4.75M 7 years | $4.87M 7 years | 1.28 | $7.43M 7 years |
| *Matthew Boldy | 22 | 2023 | 23-57 (42GP) | 25-63 (89GP) | 24-60 | $7.00M 7 years | $7.00M 7 years | 1.17 | $6.77M 7 years |
| Kyle Connor | 23 | 2019 | 34-66 (82GP) | 31-59 (178GP) | 33-63 | $7.14M 7 years | $7.32M 7 years | 1.16 | $6.74M 7 years |
| Viktor Arvidsson | 24 | 2017 | 32-63 (80GP) | 23-44 (142GP) | 28-54 | $4.25M 7 years | $4.73M 7 years | 0.88 | $5.08M 7 years |
While there’s a bit more variation in terms of the projections for a seven-year deal as opposed to an eight-year deal, two of the best comps for Maccelli would’ve been Matthew Boldy and Alex Tuch.
Each of Boldy and Tuch had played almost the exact same number of career games at the time of signing, and would’ve projected a seven-year deal for Maccelli at $6.77M and $7.43M respectively.
So while most comps for an eight-year deal would’ve put Maccelli around $7.5M, the price on a seven-year deal likely would’ve been a little below, closer to the $7M mark.
6 YEARS
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Matias Maccelli | 23 | 2023 | 14-63 (64GP) | 11-52 (87GP) | 13-58 | ||||
| Brandon Saad | 23 | 2015 | 23-52 (82GP) | 21-50 (208GP) | 22-51 | $6.00M 6 years | $7.02M 6 years | 1.38 | |
| Mitch Marner | 22 | 2019 | 26-94 (82GP) | 23-76 (224GP) | 25-85 | $10.89M 6 years | $11.16M 6 years | 1.31 | $7.62M 6 years |
| William Nylander | 22 | 2018 | 20-61 (82GP) | 21-60 (185GP) | 21-61 | $6.96M 6 years | $7.31M 6 years | 1.20 | $6.95M 6 years |
| Travis Konecny | 22 | 2019 | 24-49 (82GP) | 21-44 (233GP) | 23-47 | $5.50M 6 years | $5.63M 6 years | 1.20 | $6.95M 6 years |
| Jonathan Drouin | 22 | 2017 | 24-60 (73GP) | 15-48 (164GP) | 20-54 | $5.50M 6 years | $6.12M 6 years | 1.13 | $6.57M 6 years |
| Mikko Rantanen | 23 | 2019 | 34-96 (74GP) | 27-72 (239GP) | 31-84 | $9.25M 6 years | $9.48M 6 years | 1.13 | $6.55M 6 years |
| Filip Forsberg | 22 | 2016 | 33-64 (82GP) | 27-60 (182GP) | 30-62 | $6.00M 6 years | $6.86M 6 years | 1.11 | $6.42M 6 years |
| David Pastrnak | 21 | 2017 | 37-77 (75GP) | 28-59 (172GP) | 33-68 | $6.67M 6 years | $7.43M 6 years | 1.09 | $6.34M 6 years |
| Drake Batherson | 24 | 2021 | 25-50 (56GP) | 19-44 (99GP) | 22-47 | $4.98M 6 years | $5.10M 6 years | 1.09 | $6.29M 6 years |
| Johnny Gaudreau | 23 | 2016 | 31-81 (79GP) | 28-73 (160GP) | 30-77 | $6.75M 6 years | $7.72M 6 years | 1.00 | $5.82M 6 years |
| Joel Farabee | 22 | 2022 | 30-57 (55GP) | 21-45 (107GP) | 26-51 | $5.00M 6 years | $5.06M 6 years | 0.99 | $5.75M 6 years |
| Rickard Rakell | 23 | 2016 | 23-49 (72GP) | 14-39 (165GP) | 19-44 | $3.80M 6 years | $4.35M 6 years | 0.99 | $5.73M 6 years |
With the comps above, 10 of the 11 past deals would’ve projected Maccelli to come in between $5.75M and $6.95 on a six-year deal. While nearly half of these comps would’ve put him between $6.3M and $6.6M on a six-year deal, I’d argue there’s a good chance it would’ve either came in on the low end of that range, or below.
The two comps with similarly limited career experience were Joel Farabee (107 games played) and Drake Batherson (99 games played). These two comps would’ve had Maccelli at $5.75M and $6.29M respectively.
So while many comps would’ve put him higher, it likely would’ve taken a cap hit around $6M, give or take a bit, to lock up Maccelli for six years.
4/5 YEARS
Four of five-year deals are extremely rare.for forwards at Maccelli’s age, because they’ll usually either walk the player to UFA status, or put them only a year out, where arbitration can then award a one-year deal.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Matias Maccelli | 23 | 2023 | 14-63 (64GP) | 11-52 (87GP) | 13-58 | ||||
| Kirill Kaprizov | 24 | 2021 | 40-76 (55GP) | 40-76 (55GP) | 40-76 | $9.00M 5 years | $9.22M 5 years | 1.21 | $7.04M 5 years |
| Jaden Schwartz | 24 | 2016 | 20-55 (33GP) | 24-54 (240GP) | 22-55 | $5.35M 5 years | $6.12M 5 years | 1.11 | $6.45M 5 years |
| **Charlie Coyle | 23 | 2015 | 15-36 (75GP) | 16-34 (112GP) | 16-35 | $3.20M 5 years | $3.74M 5 years | 1.07 | $6.20M 5 years |
| Timo Meier | 23 | 2019 | 32-69 (78GP) | 23-46 (193GP) | 28-58 | $6.00M 4 years | $6.15M 4 years | 1.06 | $6.15M 4 years |
While Kaprizov’s five-year deal would’ve had Maccelli at $7M, he also had significantly higher production. The more realistic comps were Jaden Schwartz, and perhaps more specifically, Charlie Coyle (who had just 112 career games played and low goal ttoals). The Coyle projection would’ve had Maccelli around the $6.2M mark. While he may not have been quite that high, given the six-year comps had him around the same range, he probably would’nt have been significantly lower.
The only real four-year comp would be Timo Meier, but Meier had over twice the career experience and significantly higher goal totals. So we can be reasonably sure a four-year deal would’ve come in well below Meier’s $6.15M projection, especially considering how low his cap hit came in on a slightly shorter three-year deal.
3 YEARS
So now looking at the term of deal that Maccelli actually signed, was the $3.43M cap hit a fair deal?
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Matias Maccelli | 23 | 2023 | 14-63 (64GP) | 11-52 (87GP) | 13-58 | $3.43M 3 years | $3.43M 3 years | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk | 22 | 2019 | 35-79 (80GP) | 26-64 (224GP) | 31-72 | $7.00M 3 years | $7.17M 3 years | 1.00 | $5.78M 3 years |
| Alex DeBrincat | 23 | 2020 | 41-76 (82GP) | 35-64 (164GP) | 38-70 | $6.40M 3 years | $6.56M 3 years | 0.94 | $5.44M 3 years |
| Brock Boeser | 22 | 2019 | 31-67 (69GP) | 35-68 (140GP) | 33-68 | $5.88M 3 years | $6.02M 3 years | 0.89 | $5.14M 3 years |
| Nikita Kucherov | 23 | 2016 | 32-70 (77GP) | 26-58 (211GP) | 29-64 | $4.77M 3 years | $5.46M 3 years | 0.85 | $4.95M 3 years |
| Tomas Tatar | 24 | 2014 | 21-40 (73GP) | 20-39 (100GP) | 21-40 | $2.75M 3 years | $3.33M 3 years | 0.83 | $4.83M 3 years |
| Kasperi Kapanen | 23 | 2019 | 21-46 (78GP) | 17-33 (133GP) | 19-40 | $3.20M 3 years | $3.28M 3 years | 0.82 | $4.77M 3 years |
| Roope Hintz | 24 | 2020 | 26-45 (60GP) | 19-38 (118GP) | 23-42 | $3.15M 3 years | $3.23M 3 years | 0.77 | $4.46M 3 years |
| Dillon Dube | 23 | 2021 | 18-35 (51GP) | 12-29 (121GP) | 15-32 | $2.30M 3 years | $2.36M 3 years | 0.74 | $4.28M 3 years |
| Oskar Lindblom | 24 | 2020 | 30-49 (30GP) | 18-35 (134GP) | 24-42 | $3.00M 3 years | $3.07M 3 years | 0.73 | $4.24M 3 years |
| Ondrej Kase | 23 | 2018 | 25-47 (66GP) | 17-37 (119GP) | 21-42 | $2.60M 3 years | $2.73M 3 years | 0.65 | $3.77M 3 years |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 23 | 2018 | 11-40 (82GP) | 14-42 (120GP) | 13-41 | $2.50M 3 years | $2.63M 3 years | 0.64 | $3.72M 3 years |
| Connor Brown | 23 | 2017 | 20-36 (82GP) | 19-39 (89GP) | 20-38 | $2.10M 3 years | $2.34M 3 years | 0.62 | $3.57M 3 years |
| Troy Terry | 23 | 2020 | 7-26 (47GP) | 8-28 (81GP) | 8-27 | $1.45M 3 years | $1.49M 3 years | 0.55 | $3.20M 3 years |
| Brandon Hagel | 23 | 2021 | 14-38 (52GP) | 14-37 (53GP) | 14-38 | $1.50M 3 years | $1.54M 3 years | 0.41 | $2.35M 3 years |
| Eeli Tolvanen | 22 | 2021 | 23-45 (40GP) | 21-42 (47GP) | 22-44 | $1.45M 3 years | $1.49M 3 years | 0.34 | $1.96M 3 years |
Of the 15 comps listed, 12 of them would’ve had Maccelli come in above his $3.43M cap hit.
That said, it’s important to put the comps into context. The first four players listed (Tkachuk, DeBrincat, Boeser and Kucherov) all had better production, as well as much better goal totals.
On the flip side, the four lowest payment rates (Brown, Terry, Hagel and Tolvanen) and all below 100 games played at the time of signing. Every single other player listed had 100 games played or more. So we know there’s a direct correlation between games played and payment rate.
Of those four bottom projections, we also see Brown and Terry had 80-90 games, while Hagel and Tolvanen each had about 50 games. From there, we see the $3.2M and $3.6M projections from Brown and Terry are more applicable, based on Maccelli’s 87 games played. Considering Maccelli’s $3.43M cap hit came in almost directly between the Brown and Terry projections, you can see exactly why Maccelli’s cap hit came in where it did.
Now, there’s still certainly an argument he could’ve came in higher. The likes of Ondrej Kase and Oliver Bjorkstrand (projecting about $3.75M) had each only played 120 games, which isn’t significantly higher. Meanwhile, Tomas Tatar’s contract would’ve projected a $4.83M cap hit for Maccelli, with Tatar at only 100 career games at the time of signing.
So there are arguments for Maccelli being worth more than his $3.43M cap hit, based on other comps, but you can also see that his lack of career experience was likely the biggest determining factor in his cap hit not coming in higher.
2 YEARS
Two years was almost certainly the shortest deal we could’ve seen for Maccelli. It’s extremely rare for a player with Maccelli’s stats to end up with a shorter deal, given he wasn’t arbitration-eligible and taking a one-year deal would’ve resulted in a much lower cap hit.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Matias Maccelli | 23 | 2023 | 14-63 (64GP) | 11-52 (87GP) | 13-58 | ||||
| Patrik Laine | 21 | 2019 | 30-50 (82GP) | 38-64 (237GP) | 34-58 | $6.75M 2 years | $6.92M 2 years | 1.19 | $6.92M 2 years |
| Andreas Athanasiou | 24 | 2018 | 18-38 (71GP) | 21-36 (172GP) | 20-37 | $3.00M 2 years | $3.15M 2 years | 0.85 | $4.94M 2 years |
| J.T. Miller | 23 | 2016 | 22-43 (82GP) | 15-32 (196GP) | 19-38 | $2.75M 2 years | $3.15M 2 years | 0.83 | $4.81M 2 years |
| Jakub Vrana | 23 | 2019 | 24-47 (82GP) | 19-37 (176GP) | 22-42 | $3.35M 2 years | $3.43M 2 years | 0.82 | $4.76M 2 years |
| Jake DeBrusk | 24 | 2020 | 24-44 (65GP) | 25-48 (203GP) | 25-46 | $3.68M 2 years | $3.77M 2 years | 0.82 | $4.75M 2 years |
| Sam Reinhart | 23 | 2018 | 25-50 (82GP) | 21-46 (249GP) | 23-48 | $3.65M 2 years | $3.83M 2 years | 0.80 | $4.63M 2 years |
| Teuvo Teravainen | 23 | 2017 | 15-43 (81GP) | 13-36 (196GP) | 14-40 | $2.86M 2 years | $3.18M 2 years | 0.80 | $4.61M 2 years |
| Artturi Lehkonen | 24 | 2019 | 11-31 (82GP) | 15-30 (221GP) | 13-31 | $2.40M 2 years | $2.46M 2 years | 0.79 | $4.60M 2 years |
| Kevin Fiala | 23 | 2019 | 13-39 (83GP) | 18-38 (223GP) | 16-39 | $3.00M 2 years | $3.07M 2 years | 0.79 | $4.58M 2 years |
| Jason Zucker | 24 | 2016 | 15-27 (71GP) | 20-30 (169GP) | 18-29 | $2.00M 2 years | $2.29M 2 years | 0.79 | $4.58M 2 years |
| Andre Burakovsky | 22 | 2017 | 15-45 (64GP) | 16-40 (196GP) | 16-43 | $3.00M 2 years | $3.34M 2 years | 0.78 | $4.51M 2 years |
| Denis Gurianov | 23 | 2020 | 26-37 (64GP) | 20-31 (86GP) | 23-34 | $2.55M 2 years | $2.61M 2 years | 0.77 | $4.46M 2 years |
| Jonathan Huberdeau | 22 | 2015 | 16-56 (79GP) | 16-47 (196GP) | 16-52 | $3.25M 2 years | $3.80M 2 years | 0.73 | $4.24M 2 years |
| Kailer Yamamoto | 24 | 2022 | 20-42 (81GP) | 18-41 (186GP) | 19-42 | $3.10M 2 years | $3.14M 2 years | 0.75 | $4.34M 2 years |
| Robby Fabbri | 24 | 2020 | 20-43 (61GP) | 17-39 (216GP) | 19-41 | $2.95M 2 years | $3.02M 2 years | 0.74 | $4.27M 2 years |
| Chris Kreider | 23 | 2014 | 21-46 (66GP) | 18-37 (89GP) | 20-42 | $2.48M 2 years | $3.00M 2 years | 0.71 | $4.14M 2 years |
| Andrew Mangiapane | 24 | 2020 | 21-39 (68GP) | 17-30 (122GP) | 19-35 | $2.43M 2 years | $2.49M 2 years | 0.71 | $4.13M 2 years |
| Anthony Beauvillier | 22 | 2019 | 18-28 (81GP) | 18-33 (218GP) | 18-31 | $2.10M 2 years | $2.15M 2 years | 0.69 | $4.02M 2 years |
| Pavel Buchnevich | 24 | 2019 | 27-49 (64GP) | 20-46 (179GP) | 24-48 | $3.25M 2 years | $3.33M 2 years | 0.69 | $4.02M 2 years |
| Martin Necas | 23 | 2022 | 15-42 (78GP) | 18-48 (203GP) | 17-45 | $3.00M 2 years | $3.04M 2 years | 0.68 | $3.92M 2 years |
| Jesper Bratt | 22 | 2020 | 22-40 (60GP) | 16-44 (185GP) | 19-42 | $2.75M 2 years | $2.82M 2 years | 0.67 | $3.89M 2 years |
| Vladislav Namestnikov | 24 | 2016 | 14-36 (80GP) | 15-33 (127GP) | 15-35 | $1.94M 2 years | $2.22M 2 years | 0.63 | $3.67M 2 years |
| Jordan Kyrou | 23 | 2021 | 21-52 (55GP) | 16-39 (99GP) | 19-46 | $2.80M 2 years | $2.87M 2 years | 0.62 | $3.62M 2 years |
| Luke Kunin | 23 | 2020 | 20-43 (63GP) | 14-33 (131GP) | 17-38 | $2.30M 2 years | $2.36M 2 years | 0.62 | $3.60M 2 years |
| Jaden Schwartz | 22 | 2014 | 26-57 (80GP) | 21-45 (132GP) | 24-51 | $2.35M 2 years | $2.84M 2 years | 0.56 | $3.23M 2 years |
| Yegor Sharangovich | 23 | 2021 | 24-46 (54GP) | 24-46 (54GP) | 24-46 | $2.00M 2 years | $2.05M 2 years | 0.45 | $2.58M 2 years |
Of the 26 comps, 24 of them would’ve had Maccelli above his current $3.43M cap hit on just a two-year deal. Obviously, a three-year deal would result in a higher cap hit than a two-year deal, so the two-year comps stand as more evidence that Maccelli’s current deal makes him underpaid.
Even looking at players who also had limited career experience: Gurianov’s deal (86GP) would’ve projected Maccelli at $4.46M, Kreider’s deal (89GP) would’ve projected $4.14M, and Kyrou’s deal (99GP) would’ve projected $3.62M. So based on all comps, Maccelli’s two-year deal probably should’ve came in above his $3.43M cap hit, pointing to the fact that especially for a three-year deal, he’s underpaid.
Final Analysis
Based on the lack of NHL experience, it was unlikely that Maccelli was going to get more than a bridge deal. While he’s coming off a great year, it would mean the Coyotes shelling out quite a bit of money for a player with limited experience.
There are comps that would point to the fact that Maccelli’s three-year deal carries fair value based on limited NHL experience, but many other signs point to the fact that he could’ve gotten quite a bit more on a three-year deal, with several comps pointing to more than even $4M still being fair value.
So while it’s not a long-term deal, there’s an argument to be made that Maccelli’s three-year contract comes in at less than market value.
Hockey Comparables 
Leave a comment