With an impending arbitration hearing, what will Samsonov’s next deal look like?
Player Overview
In 2015, Ilya Samsonov became the first goalie selected in the opening round of the NHL Draft since Andrei Vasilevskiy, who was taken 19th overall by the Tampa Bay Lightning three years earlier.
There were high hopes for Samsonov with the Washington Capitals, as yet another top Russian prospect to join the organization. After spending three years in the KHL following his selection (and posting excellent numbers in the process), Samsonov made the jump to North America in 2018.
He joined the Hershey Bears from there, but in his one and only AHL season, he managed just an .898 save percentage. Still, he was called up to the NHL for the 2019-20 season, where he posted strong numbers with the Capitals, managing a .913 save percentage in 26 games, at just 22 years old. With Braden Holtby moving on in free agency, it seemed like Samsonov was poised to take over the goal in Washington.
However, the netminder stumbled in the two years that followed, being outplayed by Vitek Vanecek in 2021 and managing just a .902 save percentage in 19 games. Then the following year, Samsonov posted only an .896 save percentage in 44 games, with goaltending issues prompting the Capitals to clear house in net, moving on from both Samsonov and Vanecek in the same summer.
After going unqualified, Samsonov joined the Toronto Maple Leafs on a one-year deal for the 2022-23 season, and it couldn’t have gone much better. With Matt Murray dealing with injuries and inconsistent play, Samsonov took over the goal for most of the season, posting an excellent .919 save percentage in 42 games.
While he got injured in the playoffs and was held out of action at a key time, Samsonov managed to rebuild his value in Toronto this season. Despite the limited sample size of quality performance, there’s finally hope that the goaltender can turn things around long-term.
Samsonov’s arbitration hearing is set for Friday, July 21.
What We Know
- Elliotte Friedman recently reported that the Maple Leafs wanted a deal at three years or less.
- The maximum term Samsonov can receive from arbitration is a one-year deal.
- With Samsonov’s arbitration hearing set for Friday morning, the only way he’ll get more than a single year is if the sides settle before the hearing.
- Samsonov filed at $4.9M for arbitration, while the team filed at $2.4M.
Comparables
Below, we’ll take a look at goalies who were between 24 and 28 years old in the first year of their contract (by Dec. 31) and posted similar numbers before signing, to get a sense of what Samsonov’s deal could look like.
Generally, comparables will be based on deals above a $3M cap hit, for goalies with less than 200 career games played.
4 YEARS
It’s understandable why the Leafs wouldn’t want to go four years or more with Samsonov. Looking at the sample of goalies who signed four-year contracts, all of them have a much higher career save percentage.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV%/GP in Signing Year | % of Games Played in Signing Year | SV%/GP over Career | Contract | Adjusted to $83.5M cap |
| Ilya Samsonov | 26 | 2023 | 919 (42GP) | 51% | 908 (131GP) | ||
| Igor Shesterkin | 26 | 2021 | 932 (35GP) | 63% | 921 (47GP) | $5.67M 4 years | $5.81M 4 years |
| Juuse Saros | 26 | 2021 | 927 (36GP) | 64% | 920 (155GP) | $5.00M 4 years | $5.12M 4 years |
| Linus Ullmark | 28 | 2021 | 917 (20GP) | 36% | 912 (117GP) | $5.00M 4 years | $5.12M 4 years |
| Jake Allen | 27 | 2017 | 920 (47GP) | 57% | 915 (99GP) | $4.35M 4 years | $4.84M 4 years |
While Samsonov put together a strong year, he still barely played 50 percent of the team’s regular season games and has a very limited sample size of success.
From the team’s end, there’s no justification for a four-year deal or more unless it comes in cheap. From Samsonov’s perspective though, putting together another strong year would set him up for much more money once he becomes an unrestricted free agent, so taking less now just wouldn’t make sense either.
As a result, there won’t be a projection listed for four years or more.
3 YEARS
A three-year deal for Samsonov (reportedly the maximum length the Leafs would want to do), is more realistic, if the sides reach a settlement before the hearing.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV%/GP in Signing Year | % of Games Played in Signing Year | SV%/GP over Career | Contract (1st year of deal) | Adjusted to $83.5M cap |
| Ilya Samsonov | 26 | 2023 | 919 (42GP) | 51% | 908 (131GP) | ||
| Cal Petersen | 28 | 2022 | 911 (35GP) | 63% | 916 (54GP) | $5.00M 3 years | $5.06M 3 years |
| Ville Husso | 27 | 2022 | 919 (40GP) | 49% | 912 (57GP) | $4.75M 3 years | $4.81M 3 years |
| Jacob Markstrom | 27 | 2017 | 915 (33GP) | 40% | 904 (83GP) | $3.67M 3 years | $4.09M 3 years |
| Tristan Jarry | 25 | 2020 | 921 (33GP) | 47% | 914 (62GP) | $3.50M 3 years | $3.59M 3 years |
| Philipp Grubauer | 27 | 2018 | 923 (35GP) | 43% | 923 (101GP) | $3.33M 3 years | $3.50M 3 years |
| Alexander Georgiev | 26 | 2022 | 898 (33GP) | 40% | 908 (129GP) | $3.40M 3 years | $3.44M 3 years |
| Vitek Vanecek | 26 | 2022 | 908 (42GP) | 51% | 908 (79GP) | $3.40M 3 years | $3.44M 3 years |
Samsonov had the same career save percentage as both Georgiev and Vanecek, along with a better signing year save percentage and the same or more games played in his contract year. So we know any three-year deal would come in well above the $3.44M adjusted cap hits of the two netminders.
Then with Grubauer, Jarry and Markstrom (ranging from $3.5M to $4.1M in adjusted cap hit), it’s tough to tell where Samsonov fits in.
With Jarry and Grubauer, Samsonov had lower stats, but also played a higher percentage of his team’s games in his signing year, and had more NHL experience. Comparing him to Markstrom though, Samsonov had better stats in both his signing year and career, and also played a higher percentage of his team’s games, pointing to the fact that he could come in higher than Markstrom’s $4.1M adjusted cap hit.
There’s also legitimate justification for Samsonov going as high as $4.8M per year on a three-year deal, based on Ville Husso’s 2022 contract. Samsonov posted the exact same save percentage as Husso in nearly the exact same number of games in his signing year. Then while his career save percentage was lower, he also had more than twice the number of career games played as Husso at the time of signing.
That said, we can probably tell that the $5M mark is the absolute cap. While Samsonov had better signing year stats and more career experience than Cal Petersen, he also had a much lower career save percentage and a lower percentage of games played in his singing year.
But we know Samsonov would be well above the $3.5M mark, and based on how he compares to the likes of Markstrom and Husso, a deal somewhere between $4.1M and $4.8M is the likely range for a three-year deal.
2 YEARS
If the teams settled prior to the hearing, two years is still a very possible term. That said, it’s tough to guess exactly what Samsonov would make at that length.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV%/GP in Signing Year | % of Games Played in Signing Year | SV%/GP over Career | Contract | Adjusted to $83.5M cap |
| Ilya Samsonov | 26 | 2023 | 919 (42GP) | 51% | 908 (131GP) | ||
| Sergei Bobrovsky | 25 | 2013 | 932 (38GP) | 79% | 917 (121GP) | $5.63M 2 years | $7.31M 2 years |
| Adin Hill | 27 | 2023 | 915 (27GP) | 33% | 910 (101GP) | $4.90M 2 years | $4.90M 2 years |
| Petr Mrazek | 24 | 2016 | 921 (54GP) | 66% | 920 (94GP) | $4.00M 2 years | $4.58M 2 years |
| Jordan Binnington | 26 | 2019 | 927 (32GP) | 39% | 926 (33GP) | $4.40M 2 years | $4.51M 2 years |
| Elvis Merzlikins | 26 | 2020 | 923 (33GP) | 47% | 923 (33GP) | $4.00M 2 years | $4.10M 2 years |
| Alex Nedeljkovic | 25 | 2021 | 932 (23GP) | 41% | 928 (29GP) | $3.00M 2 years | $3.07M 2 years |
Looking at the comps, a lot of them had significantly less games played than Samsonov, with much higher stats. As a result, it’s difficult to get a clear sense of a range.
What we do know is he’d be well below Mrazek’s $4.6M adjusted cap hit. Mrazek posted a similar numbers in his signing year but played a much higher percentage of games and also had much better career numbers. Considering most of the comps come in at $4M or above with better stats, there’s a chance Samsonov wouldn’t hit the $4M mark on a two-year deal.
Again, it’s very tough to judge, based on so few solid comps. Adin Hill’s numbers may be most applicable, but his value came from his playoff performance, not regular season stats (as listed). So while $4M on a two-year deal would be possible for Samsonov, it’s possible he’d end up a little below.
1 YEAR
Obviously at this point, a one-year deal is most likely for Samsonov, with his hearing coming so soon. If the sides don’t settle prior to the hearing, we’ll see just a one-year contract.
| Player | Age at first year of deal | First Year Of Deal | SV%/GP in Signing Year | % of Games Played in Signing Year | SV%/GP over Career | Contract | Adjusted to $83.5M cap |
| Ilya Samsonov | 26 | 2023 | 919 (42GP) | 51% | 908 (131GP) | ||
| Robin Lehner | 28 | 2019 | 930 (46GP) | 56% | 918 (265GP) | $5.00M 1 year | $5.12M 1 year |
| Robin Lehner | 26 | 2017 | 920 (59GP) | 72% | 918 (166GP) | $4.00M 1 year | $4.45M 1 year |
| Linus Ullmark | 27 | 2020 | 915 (34GP) | 49% | 911 (97GP) | $2.60M 1 year | $2.66M 1 year |
Looking at comparables for one-year deals though, there isn’t a ton to work with. I had to use samples of goalies with lower cap hits or more experience to find comps that were somewhat applicable.
With the Leafs filing at $2.4M and Samsonov filing at $4.9M, obviously, the number lies somewhere in between.
Based on comps though, Samsonov should be nowhere near the upper end of this range. Before Robin Lehner’s 2019 deal ($5M cap hit), Lehner posted a .930 save percentage, and also had a significantly higher career save percentage. Then with his 2017 deal ($4M cap hit), while his signing year save percentage was similar, he played far more games than Samsonov, and still had the benefit of the better career numbers.
Linus Ullmark is the closest comp of the group, at a $2.7M adjusted cap hit. Samsonov had the better signing year stats, but the netminders played a similar percentage of games before signing and Ullmark had the slightly better career numbers (albeit over a smaller sample size).
So looking at where Samsonov lands within the range, it’s likely to be closer to the team’s $2.4M filing than Samsonov’s $4.9M filing. The real range lands between $2.65M and $4.45M, based on the comps, but Samsonov acts as a far closer comp to Ullmark than either of Lehner’s deals.
So while Samsonov should come in above Ullmark’s $2.7M adjusted cap hit, the final number from arbitration should come in lower than the $3.65M ‘middle ground’ between the team and player filings.
Projection
At this point, a one-year deal is likely for Samsonov, based on the impending arbitration hearing.
While $3.65M would be the middle ground between the team and player filings, comps point to Samsonov coming in below that. So while he should hit $3M, there’s a good chance he doesn’t quite reach $3.5M on a one-year deal.
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 1 Year | $3.25M | $3.75M | $3.00M |
If the team settles before arbitration, it’s still possible we see a two or three-year deal, with projections below.
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 2 Years | $3.75M | $4.00M | $3.25M |
| 3 Years | $4.25M | $4.80M | $3.50M |
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