The defenseman signed a two-year deal with the New York Rangers, coming off a big year.
The New York Rangers signed defenseman K’Andre Miller to a two-year contract extension last week, which carries a $3.87M cap hit.
While all of our designated RFAs from the Top-50 Free Agents are receiving a projection article for their upcoming contract, Miller signed his deal before the projection was released. So instead, we’ll take a look at comparable contracts to evaluate how the deal looks for the Rangers, and whether it carries fair value.
Player Overview
Selected 22nd overall by the Rangers in 2018, it didn’t take long for Miller to make the jump to the NHL. Following two years at the University of Wisconsin after being selected, Miller took a full-time role with the Rangers for the 2021 season.
Since then, he’s played 214 games with New York across three seasons and is coming off a breakout year with the Rangers. Miller doubled his point totals, posting nine goals and 43 points in just 79 games, playing mostly with Jacob Trouba and averaging nearly 22 minutes per game.
Miller is a great skater with excellent puck control, making for a great ability to transport the puck. At 6-foot-5, Miller also uses his size to impose a physical presence, but can still round out his defensive game in the coming years. At just 23 years old though, the defenseman is locked into a top-four role with the Rangers for the forseeable future.
Comparables
Below, we’ll take a look at contracts at different lengths for defensemen with around the same NHL experience and stats, to analyze Miller’s deal.
Note: The comparables used are defensemen who signed their contract at a similar age. All ages listed are related to how old the player was by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract. The far right column of each table represents a player’s cap hit adjusted to an $83.5M salary cap (for the 2023-24 season).
8 YEARS
An eight-year deal wasn’t overly likely for Miller. Looking at defensemen his age who got that term, most were viewed as legitimate top defenders at the time of signing.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | Signing Year TOI | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| K’Andre Miller | 23 | 2023 | 45 (79GP) | 29 (214GP) | 21:57 | 21:14 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy | 25 | 2022 | 48 (51GP) | 42 (235GP) | 24:00 | 22:51 | $9.50M 8 years | $9.62M 8 years |
| Miro Heiskanen | 22 | 2021 | 40 (55GP) | 38 (205GP) | 24:58 | 23:50 | $8.45M 8 years | $8.66M 8 years |
| Aaron Ekblad | 21 | 2017 | 38 (78GP) | 39 (159GP) | 21:41 | 21:45 | $7.50M 8 years | $8.35M 8 years |
| Jacob Trouba | 25 | 2019 | 50 (82GP) | 36 (408GP) | 22:53 | 22:53 | $8.00M 8 years | $8.20M 8 years |
| Thomas Chabot | 23 | 2020 | 64 (70GP) | 49 (134GP) | 24:17 | 20:58 | $8.00M 8 years | $8.20M 8 years |
| Mike Matheson | 24 | 2018 | 17 (81GP) | 17 (84GP) | 21:03 | 20:56 | $4.88M 8 years | $5.13M 8 years |
| *Mikey Anderson | 24 | 2023 | 19 (55GP) | 16 (172GP) | 21:49 | 20:55 | $4.13M 8 years | $4.13M 8 years |
While Miller is coming off a big year, his career production was much lower than his singing year stats. Perhaps the best comparable above is Jacob Trouba, who also signed his contract with the New York Rangers, and like Miller, he had better signing year production than over his career, but fairly consistent ice time between his signing year and career.
While Miller’s stats were lower than Trouba’s in every category, he’d also be significantly higher than Matheson and Anderson as a comparable. So while he would’ve come in well below the $8M mark, it likely still would’ve costed the Rangers $7M or more to get Miller locked up for eight years.
7 YEARS
Seven years may have been a little more possible, if the team already felt confident in committing to that length of a deal.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | Signing Year TOI | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| K’Andre Miller | 23 | 2023 | 45 (79GP) | 29 (214GP) | 21:57 | 21:14 | ||
| **Adam Fox | 24 | 2022 | 72 (64GP) | 60 (134GP) | 24:39 | 21:39 | $9.50M 7 years | $9.62M 7 years |
| Nick Leddy | 24 | 2015 | 33 (62GP) | 30 (320GP) | 20:11 | 18:26 | $5.50M 7 years | $6.43M 7 years |
| Jaccob Slavin | 24 | 2018 | 34 (82GP) | 31 (145GP) | 23:26 | 22:22 | $5.30M 7 years | $5.57M 7 years |
| Shea Theodore | 23 | 2018 | 39 (61GP) | 33 (114GP) | 20:21 | 19:14 | $5.20M 7 years | $5.46M 7 years |
| Samuel Girard | 22 | 2020 | 27 (82GP) | 26 (155GP) | 19:54 | 18:50 | $5.00M 7 years | $5.12M 7 years |
| Oscar Klefbom | 23 | 2016 | 27 (60GP) | 24 (77GP) | 22:00 | 20:38 | $4.17M 7 years | $4.77M 7 years |
| Mattias Samuelson | 23 | 2023 | 20 (42GP) | 18 (54GP) | 20:00 | 19:33 | $4.28M 7 years | $4.28M 7 years |
Amongst the comps, there’s reason to think Miller could’ve made more than any defenseman listed above, other than Adam Fox.
His signing year production was higher than any other defender listed, with his career production pretty much right on par with most other comps. Then factor in his ice time was higher than almost all other comps (outside of Jaccob Slavin), and chances are, he would’ve made upwards of $6.5M on a seven-year deal.
6 YEARS
Six years would’ve been the shortest long-term deal we could’ve seen.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | Signing Year TOI | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| K’Andre Miller | 23 | 2023 | 45 (79GP) | 29 (214GP) | 21:57 | 21:14 | ||
| Cale Makar | 23 | 2021 | 82 (44GP) | 76 (101GP) | 24:19 | 22:27 | $9.00M 6 years | $9.22M 6 years |
| Quinn Hughes | 22 | 2021 | 60 (56GP) | 62 (129GP) | 22:48 | 22:08 | $7.85M 6 years | $8.04M 6 years |
| Ivan Provorov | 22 | 2019 | 26 (82GP) | 32 (246GP) | 25:07 | 23:45 | $6.75M 6 years | $6.92M 6 years |
| Dougie Hamilton | 22 | 2015 | 48 (72GP) | 38 (178GP) | 21:20 | 19:32 | $5.75M 6 years | $6.72M 6 years |
| Seth Jones | 22 | 2016 | 31 (81GP) | 28 (240GP) | 22:05 | 20:32 | $5.40M 6 years | $6.18M 6 years |
| Rasmus Ristolainen | 22 | 2016 | 41 (82GP) | 27 (194GP) | 25:17 | 22:19 | $5.40M 6 years | $6.18M 6 years |
| Hampus Lindholm | 22 | 2016 | 29 (80GP) | 32 (236GP) | 22:00 | 21:04 | $5.25M 6 years | $6.01M 6 years |
| Esa Lindell | 25 | 2019 | 32 (82GP) | 26 (239GP) | 24:20 | 22:39 | $5.80M 6 years | $5.94M 6 years |
| Morgan Rielly | 22 | 2016 | 36 (82GP) | 32 (236GP) | 23:14 | 20:30 | $5.00M 6 years | $5.72M 6 years |
| Brady Skjei | 24 | 2018 | 25 (82GP) | 31 (169GP) | 21:02 | 19:12 | $5.25M 6 years | $5.51M 6 years |
| Noah Hanifin | 21 | 2018 | 33 (79GP) | 28 (239GP) | 18:52 | 18:14 | $4.90M 6 years | $5.15M 6 years |
| Shayne Gostisbehere | 24 | 2017 | 42 (76GP) | 49 (142GP) | 19:36 | 19:43 | $4.50M 6 years | $5.01M 6 years |
| Jonas Brodin | 22 | 2015 | 20 (71GP) | 20 (195GP) | 24:10 | 23:50 | $4.17M 6 years | $4.88M 6 years |
| Jakob Chychrun | 21 | 2019 | 23 (50GP) | 24 (118GP) | 20:15 | 18:11 | $4.60M 6 years | $4.71M 6 years |
| *OIli Maatta | 22 | 2016 | 25 (53GP) | 29 (151GP) | 19:36 | 19:11 | $4.08M 6 years | $4.67M 6 years |
| Rasmus Andersson | 24 | 2020 | 26 (70GP) | 21 (160GP) | 19:56 | 17:43 | $4.55M 6 years | $4.66M 6 years |
| Damon Severson | 23 | 2017 | 32 (80GP) | 28 (203GP) | 20:21 | 19:59 | $4.17M 6 years | $4.64M 6 years |
| John Marino | 24 | 2021 | 21 (52GP) | 30 (108GP) | 20:44 | 20:29 | $4.40M 6 years | $4.51M 6 years |
| Brett Pesce | 24 | 2018 | 20 (82GP) | 20 (151GP) | 21:12 | 20:05 | $4.03M 6 years | $4.23M 6 years |
| Brandon Carlo | 25 | 2021 | 12 (27GP) | 14 (324GP) | 18:43 | 20:13 | $4.10M 6 years | $4.20M 6 years |
Once again, very few of the comps above had both the production and usage that Miller did. The best comps were arguably Hampus Lindholm ($6M adj. cap hit), along with Seth Jones and Rasmus Ristolainen ($6.2M adjusted cap hit). All three of the defenders had very similar usage and career production.
That said, Miller’s production from his contract year could’ve possibly pushed the number above this range. So the likely price for a six-year contract would’ve probably been between the $6M mark, and the $6.5M that was projected for a seven-year deal above.
3 YEARS
Teams won’t want to give a four or five-year deal to a player coming off their entry-level contract, given it would mean the deal expires just as they’re eligible to become a UFA. As a result, if the sides weren’t going for a long-term contract (which would’ve been difficult considering the Rangers’ cap situation) a bridge deal at three years or less was always the most likely scenario.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | Signing Year TOI | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| K’Andre Miller | 23 | 2023 | 45 (79GP) | 29 (214GP) | 21:57 | 21:14 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin | 21 | 2021 | 34 (56GP) | 45 (197GP) | 21:36 | 20:44 | $6.00M 3 years | $6.15M 3 years |
| Zach Werenski | 22 | 2019 | 44 (82GP) | 44 (237GP) | 22:54 | 22:08 | $5.00M 3 years | $5.12M 3 years |
| Charlie McAvoy | 22 | 2019 | 43 (54GP) | 42 (117GP) | 22:10 | 22:10 | $4.90M 3 years | $5.02M 3 years |
| Mikhail Sergachev | 22 | 2020 | 40 (70GP) | 38 (228GP) | 20:22 | 17:41 | $4.80M 3 years | $4.92M 3 years |
| Filip Hronek | 24 | 2021 | 38 (56GP) | 39 (167GP) | 23:23 | 22:38 | $4.40M 3 years | $4.51M 3 years |
| Noah Dobson | 22 | 2022 | 52 (80GP) | 37 (160GP) | 21:28 | 18:16 | $4.00M 3 years | $4.05M 3 years |
| Will Butcher | 24 | 2019 | 32 (78GP) | 38 (159GP) | 19:16 | 17:38 | $3.73M 3 years | $3.82M 3 years |
| Jared Spurgeon | 24 | 2013 | 32 (39GP) | 25 (162GP) | 21:33 | 19:27 | $2.67M 3 years | $3.47M 3 years |
| Erik Cernak | 23 | 2020 | 15 (67GP) | 18 (125GP) | 18:57 | 19:05 | $2.95M 3 years | $3.20M 3 years |
| Ryan Lindgren | 23 | 2021 | 26 (51GP) | 21 (116GP) | 20:00 | 17:59 | $3.00M 3 years | $3.07M 3 years |
| Martin Fehervary | 24 | 2023 | 20 (67GP) | 18 (152GP) | 20:00 | 19:40 | $2.68M 3 years | $2.68M 3 years |
| Adam Boqvist | 22 | 2022 | 35 (52GP) | 33 (128GP) | 17:03 | 16:46 | $2.60M 3 years | $2.63M 3 years |
| Philippe Myers | 23 | 2020 | 26 (50GP) | 21 (71GP) | 17:06 | 16:36 | $2.55M 3 years | $2.61M 3 years |
| Henri Jokiharju | 22 | 2021 | 14 (46GP) | 19 (153GP) | 18:23 | 18:00 | $2.50M 3 years | $2.56M 3 years |
| Alexander Romanov | 22 | 2022 | 13 (79GP) | 12 (133GP) | 20:24 | 19:07 | $2.50M 3 years | $2.53M 3 years |
| Jake Bean | 23 | 2021 | 23 (42GP) | 22 (44GP) | 14:32 | 14:16 | $2.33M 3 years | $2.39M 3 years |
Again, Miller’s number likely falls on the high end of these comps.
Based on production and usage, we know he’d reach at least $4M, the price of Noah Dobson’s contract – and considering he got almost that much on a two-year deal as is, the number would’ve likely come in even higher.
The question was probably whether he would’ve been as high as Hronek’s $4.5M adjusted cap hit, or even Sergachev’s $4.9M adjusted cap hit.
With Sergachev, he was coming off a Stanley Cup win and had higher career production, so it’s unlikely we would’ve seen as high of a deal for Miller, even despite similar ice time. Then with Hronek, Miller did have quite a bit more experience, but also had lower numbers in everything other than signing year stats.
As a result, we can assume that Miller likely would’ve fallen somewhere between Dobson’s $4.05M adjusted cap hit and Hronek’s $4.5M adjusted cap hit on a three-year deal.
2 YEARS
In terms of the length Miller actually signed at, two years was the most likely scenario for a bridge deal.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | Signing Year TOI | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| K’Andre Miller | 23 | 2023 | 45 (79GP) | 29 (214GP) | 21:57 | 21:14 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo | 25 | 2020 | 64 (68GP) | 43 (200GP) | 19:17 | 18:26 | $4.80M 2 years | $4.80M 2 years |
| Bowen Byram | 22 | 2023 | 47 (42GP) | 39 (91GP) | 21:53 | 19:54 | $3.85M 2 years | $3.85M 2 years |
| Brandon Montour | 24 | 2018 | 33 (80GP) | 29 (107GP) | 20:28 | 19:41 | $3.38M 2 years | $3.56M 2 years |
| Nick Leddy | 22 | 2013 | 31 (48GP) | 29 (176GP) | 17:25 | 18:47 | $2.70M 2 years | $3.51M 2 years |
| Jacob Trouba | 22 | 2016 | 22 (81GP) | 28 (211GP) | 19:19 | 18:54 | $3.00M 2 years | $3.43M 2 years |
| Darnell Nurse | 23 | 2018 | 26 (82GP) | 20 (197GP) | 22:15 | 20:19 | $3.20M 2 years | $3.36M 2 years |
| Travis Sanheim | 23 | 2019 | 35 (82GP) | 28 (131GP) | 19:34 | 18:04 | $3.25M 2 years | $3.33M 2 years |
| Josh Morrissey | 23 | 2018 | 26 (81GP) | 23 (164GP) | 20:27 | 19:57 | $3.15M 2 years | $3.31M 2 years |
| *Ryan Murray | 23 | 2016 | 25 (56GP) | 25 (134GP) | 22:31 | 20:54 | $2.83M 2 years | $3.24M 2 years |
| Cody Ceci | 23 | 2016 | 28 (75GP) | 22 (205GP) | 19:18 | 18:48 | $2.80M 2 years | $3.20M 2 years |
| Neal Pionk | 24 | 2019 | 29 (73GP) | 32 (101GP) | 21:10 | 21:30 | $3.00M 2 years | $3.07M 2 years |
| Matt Dumba | 22 | 2016 | 26 (81GP) | 24 (152GP) | 16:50 | 15:46 | $2.55M 2 years | $2.92M 2 years |
| T.J. Brodie | 23 | 2013 | 24 (47GP) | 22 (104GP) | 20:13 | 18:09 | $2.13M 2 years | $2.76M 2 years |
| Dante Fabbro | 23 | 2021 | 25 (40GP) | 18 (108GP) | 19:19 | 18:54 | $2.40M 2 years | $2.46M 2 years |
| Esa Lindell | 23 | 2017 | 20 (73GP) | 19 (77GP) | 21:52 | 21:28 | $2.20M 2 years | $2.45M 2 years |
We also get a very good sense of why Miller’s deal came in where it did. His production and usage was higher than just about every single comp listed, up to Nick Leddy’s $3.5M adjusted cap hit. That said, his production was much lower than Tony DeAngelo’s.
This left the recent extension for Bowen Byram as by far the best comp on a two-year deal. Byram did have higher career production than Miller, but also had much less experience, less career ice time, and very similar signing year stats. As a result, the nearly identical deal that Miller signed to Byram checks out.
1 YEAR
A one-year is always unlikely for a player with high value coming off their ELC.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | Signing Year TOI | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| K’Andre Miller | 23 | 2023 | 45 (79GP) | 29 (214GP) | 21:57 | 21:14 | ||
| Justin Schultz | 24 | 2014 | 37 (74GP) | 40 (122GP) | 23:21 | 22:36 | $3.68M 1 year | $4.45M 1 year |
| Vince Dunn | 24 | 2020 | 27 (71GP) | 30 (224GP) | 16:16 | 17:02 | $1.88M 1 year | $1.93M 1 year |
| Torey Krug | 23 | 2014 | 42 (79GP) | 42 (82GP) | 17:31 | 17:29 | $1.40M 1 year | $1.68M 1 year |
| *Mikey Anderson | 23 | 2022 | 12 (51GP) | 14 (117GP) | 20:07 | 20:30 | $1.00M 1 year | $1.01M 1 year |
As shown above, if a player doesn’t have arbitration rights, it almost always would result in a much lower cap hit. So while Miller could have tried to bet on himself for a single year to lock into a long-term contract sooner, it would’ve been an unnecessary risk.
Final Analysis
A bridge deal for Miller was expected (given New York’s cap situation), so the two-year term comes as no surprise.
It’s also very easy to see why Miller’s cap hit came in where it did ($3.87M), based on the comps available. Especially after Byram’s deal was signed, it was pretty much a lock that Miller’s deal would come in at a similar number, as it’s really the only two-year comp that works well for Miller.
As a result, Miller’s two-year deal at a $3.87M cap hit is about as fair of a deal as you’re going to see, and comes in basically right in line with expectations.
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