Carrier took a one-year deal and will become an unrestricted free agent next summer.
The Nashville Predators signed defenseman Alexandre Carrier to a one-year contract extension on Saturday, which carries a $2.5M cap hit.
While all of our designated RFAs from the Top-50 Free Agents are receiving a projection article for their upcoming contract, Carrier signed his deal before the projection was released. So instead, we’ll take a look at comparable contracts to evaluate how the deal looks for the Predators, and whether it carries fair value.
Player Overview
Despite now approaching his late 20s, Alexandre Carrier is still fairly new to the NHL.
The defenseman spent the first four seasons of his professional career playing with the AHL’s Milwaukee Admirals, only getting into very limited NHL action. Then while he did make the jump to the NHL for the shortened 2021 season, Carrier still only played 19 games.
However, the defender had a standout 2021-22 season, which saw him manage 30 points in 77 games and average 21 minutes per game. Carrier ended up finishing 10th in Calder Trophy voting as a result.
| Scoring | Goals | Assists | Shots | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Age | Tm | Lg | GP | G | A | PTS | +/- | PIM | EV | PPG | SHG | GWG | EV | PP | SH | SOG | SPCT | TSA | TOI | ATOI | FOW | FOL | FO% | BLK | HIT | TK | GV | Awards |
| 2016-17 | 20 | NSH | NHL | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 1 | 21 | 10:24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 2019-20 | 23 | NSH | NHL | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0 | 4 | 32 | 10:47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 2020-21 | 24 | NSH | NHL | 19 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 3.2 | 68 | 381 | 20:03 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 22 | 10 | 9 | ||
| 2021-22 | 25 | NSH | NHL | 77 | 3 | 27 | 30 | 26 | 50 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 95 | 3.2 | 188 | 1616 | 20:59 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 124 | 95 | 27 | 39 | AR-1,Calder-10 |
| 2022-23 | 26 | NSH | NHL | 43 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 48 | 4.2 | 99 | 769 | 17:53 | 0 | 0 | 67 | 57 | 14 | 12 | ||
| Career | 5 yrs | NHL | 144 | 6 | 36 | 42 | 32 | 87 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 179 | 3.4 | 360 | 2819 | 19:34 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 | 223 | 177 | 51 | 60 | ||
He didn’t quite have the same success this season though, with both his ice time and production down, and getting into only 43 games due to injury-related absences.
Especially with Luke Schenn being added to the right side of the Predators’ blue line, it’s still going to be interesting to see what kind of a role Carrier gets next season.
Comparables
Below, we’ll take a look at contracts at different lengths for defensemen with around the same NHL experience and stats, to analyze Carrier’s deal. The comparables will include players who played the first year of their contract (min. $2M cap hit) between 25 and to 29 years old, from 2016 onwards.
Note: All ages listed are related to how old the player was by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.
6-8 YEARS
Getting six years or more was always going to be very unlikely for Carrier. Deals at that length for defenders of his age and production are extremely limited, with comps below.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | Signing Year TOI | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| Alexandre Carrier | 27 | 2023 | 17 (43GP) | 24 (144GP) | 17:53 | 19:34 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev | 26 | 2017 | 36 (82GP) | 36 (82GP) | 22:01 | 22:01 | $4.50M 7 years | $5.01M 7 years |
| Brian Dumoulin | 26 | 2017 | 18 (70GP) | 17 (163GP) | 20:33 | 19:27 | $4.10M 6 years | $4.56M 6 years |
| **Mattias Ekholm | 26 | 2016 | 20 (88GP) | 16 (153GP) | 18:56 | 17:58 | $3.75M 6 years | $4.29M 6 years |
| **Zach Whitecloud | 26 | 2022 | 19 (55GP) | 16 (72GP) | 17:37 | 16:52 | $2.75M 6 years | $2.78M 6 years |
Carrier didn’t have the production or usage of Zaitsev, so we know a seven-year deal (or eight-year deal) would’ve came in far below $5M per year for Carrier.
In terms of the six-year deals though, Carrier did have more ice time and experience than Whitecloud, with similar production. So he’d be likely to come in a little ways above $2.8M.
Mattias Ekholm’s deal also acted as a very interesting comparable, with similar production and experience, and Carrier having the higher career ice time, but Ekholm having the higher signing year ice time. So we could’ve expected any possible six-year deal to come in somewhere between $2.8M and $4.3M, likely closer to the high end of the range. Again though, after a bit of an underwhelming year from Carrier, there was no reason for the Predators to commit to that kind of term.
5 YEARS
Even reaching five years is something we don’t see much for defensemen with Carrier’s age, experience and stats.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| Alexandre Carrier | 27 | 2023 | 17 (43GP) | 24 (144GP) | 17:53 | 19:34 | ||
| David Savard | 26 | 2016 | 36 (82GP) | 27 (187GP) | 22:57 | 19:46 | $4.25M 5 years | $4.86M 5 years |
| Simon Despres | 25 | 2016 | 25 (75GP) | 20 (160GP) | 16:52 | 16:11 | $3.70M 5 years | $4.23M 5 years |
Of the comparables, Carrier had nowhere near the signing year production and ice time of Savard, so we know any five-year deal should’ve been lower than his $4.9M adjusted cap hit.
That said, while Carrier had slightly lower signing year production than Despres, he also had more ice time and similar experience. So it’s possible we could’ve seen a five-year deal right around the $4M range.
4 YEARS
Four years could’ve possibly been a more realistic range for Carrier’s deal, if he wanted more term, based on significantly more comparables available.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| Alexandre Carrier | 27 | 2023 | 17 (43GP) | 24 (144GP) | 17:53 | 19:34 | ||
| Neal Pionk | 26 | 2021 | 49 (54GP) | 24 (226GP) | 21:58 | 22:12 | $5.88M 4 years | $6.02M 4 years |
| Sami Vatanen | 25 | 2016 | 44 (71GP) | 41 (194GP) | 21:19 | 20:11 | $4.88M 4 years | $5.58M 4 years |
| Josh Manson | 27 | 2018 | 17 (82GP) | 16 (181GP) | 18:38 | 18:39 | $4.10M 4 years | $4.31M 4 years |
| Devon Toews | 26 | 2020 | 34 (68GP) | 33 (116GP) | 20:31 | 19:26 | $4.10M 4 years | $4.20M 4 years |
| Colin Miller | 26 | 2018 | 41 (82GP) | 31 (185GP) | 19:21 | 17:22 | $3.88M 4 years | $4.08M 4 years |
| Radko Gudas | 26 | 2016 | 15 (76GP) | 19 (202GP) | 19:51 | 18:50 | $3.35M 4 years | $3.83M 4 years |
| Matt Grzelcyk | 26 | 2020 | 25 (68GP) | 22 (197GP) | 18:04 | 17:57 | $3.69M 4 years | $3.78M 4 years |
| Kevan Miller | 29 | 2016 | 21 (71GP) | 16 (159GP) | 19:04 | 18:19 | $2.50M 4 years | $2.86M 4 years |
| Sean Walker | 26 | 2020 | 28 (70GP) | 26 (109GP) | 18:50 | 17:37 | $2.65M 4 years | $2.72M 4 years |
| Michal Kempny | 28 | 2018 | 15 (53GP) | 14 (103GP) | 15:55 | 15:27 | $2.50M 4 years | $2.63M 4 years |
| *Nick Jensen | 29 | 2019 | 21 (60GP) | 19 (190GP) | 20:48 | 18:05 | $2.50M 4 years | $2.56M 4 years |
| Tucker Poolman | 28 | 2021 | 2 (39GP) | 13 (120GP) | 18:18 | 16:45 | $2.50M 4 years | $2.56M 4 years |
| *Radim Simek | 28 | 2020 | 17 (44GP) | 17 (85GP) | 16:47 | 16:02 | $2.25M 4 years | $2.31M 4 years |
| Jeremy Lauzon | 25 | 2022 | 9 (66GP) | 10 (142GP) | 17:40 | 17:26 | $2.00M 4 years | $2.02M 4 years |
Looking at the comps, Carrier was likely never getting above $4M, as almost every single player above that mark had better production, better ice time or both.
However, you also know that based on production and/or ice time, he was coming in above Poolman, Simek and Lauzon.
The realistic range for Carrier on a four-year deal would’ve been between Jensen’s $2.6M adjusted cap hit and Gudas’ $3.8M adjusted cap hit. Based on projections for other terms, we likely would’ve seen him on the higher end of the range.
3 YEARS
Aside from four years, three years was one of the more realistic lengths for Carrier’s deal, with comparables below.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| Alexandre Carrier | 27 | 2023 | 17 (43GP) | 24 (144GP) | 17:53 | 19:34 | ||
| *Jake Walman | 27 | 2023 | 20 (41GP) | 15 (117GP) | 19:02 | 15:51 | $3.40M 3 years | $3.40M 3 years |
| Mackenzie Weegar | 26 | 2020 | 33 (45GP) | 20 (172GP) | 20:07 | 16:58 | $3.25M 3 years | $3.33M 3 years |
| Ryan Graves | 25 | 2020 | 31 (69GP) | 27 (95GP) | 18:57 | 16:48 | $3.17M 3 years | $3.25M 3 years |
| *Matt Roy | 26 | 2021 | 23 (25GP) | 21 (120GP) | 19:32 | 18:12 | $3.15M 3 years | $3.23M 3 years |
| Mark Pysyk | 25 | 2017 | 17 (82GP) | 17 (207GP) | 18:34 | 17:51 | $2.73M 3 years | $3.04M 3 years |
| Vladislav Gavrikov | 25 | 2020 | 21 (69GP) | 21 (69GP) | 18:59 | 18:59 | $2.80M 3 years | $2.87M 3 years |
| Carson Soucy | 26 | 2020 | 21 (55GP) | 20 (58GP) | 15:38 | 15:35 | $2.75M 3 years | $2.82M 3 years |
| Andrew Peeke | 25 | 2023 | 15 (82GP) | 15 (115GP) | 21:29 | 19:36 | $2.75M 3 years | $2.75M 3 years |
| Gustav Forsling | 25 | 2021 | 32 (43GP) | 22 (165GP) | 19:57 | 17:49 | $2.67M 3 years | $2.74M 3 years |
| Jacob Middleton | 26 | 2022 | 17 (66GP) | 17 (80GP) | 18:41 | 17:15 | $2.45M 3 years | $2.48M 3 years |
| Stephen Johns | 26 | 2018 | 16 (75GP) | 15 (150GP) | 17:33 | 17:52 | $2.35M 3 years | $2.47M 3 years |
| Greg Pateryn | 28 | 2018 | 15 (73GP) | 14 (167GP) | 19:37 | 17:10 | $2.25M 3 years | $2.36M 3 years |
| Jamie Oleksiak | 26 | 2018 | 21 (68GP) | 16 (187GP) | 16:40 | 15:25 | $2.14M 3 years | $2.25M 3 years |
| *Justin Holl | 28 | 2020 | 23 (39GP) | 22 (52GP) | 16:30 | 15:41 | $2.00M 3 years | $2.05M 3 years |
Looking at the two-year comps, Carrier should’ve had more value than any player from Middleton down to Holl. After that though, there would be justification for Carrier being anywhere between Forsling’s adjusted $2.75M, cap hit and Walman’s $3.4M cap hit.
So while Carrier could’ve ended up with a slightly higher cap hit than his $2.5M, likely around the $3M mark, it probably wouldn’t have been a big enough incentive to sign for more term.
2 YEARS
If Carrier had taken a two-year deal, it was likely to come in around the same price range, based on comparbales.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | Signing Year TOI | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| Alexandre Carrier | 27 | 2023 | 17 (43GP) | 24 (144GP) | 17:53 | 19:34 | ||
| Ryan Pulock | 26 | 2020 | 42 (68GP) | 38 (234GP) | 22:24 | 20:43 | $5.00M 2 years | $5.12M 2 years |
| Tony DeAngelo | 27 | 2022 | 65 (270GP) | 48 (270GP) | 19:49 | 18:46 | $5.00M 2 years | $5.06M 2 years |
| Ilya Lyubushkin | 28 | 2022 | 16 (77GP) | 10 (211GP) | 17:27 | 15:36 | $2.75M 2 years | $2.75M 2 years |
| Nathan Beaulieu | 25 | 2017 | 31 (74GP) | 22 (225GP) | 19:29 | 17:15 | $2.40M 2 years | $2.67M 2 years |
| **Derek Forbort | 26 | 2018 | 19 (88GP) | 18 (102GP) | 20:12 | 18:56 | $2.53M 2 years | $2.66M 2 years |
| Oliver Kylington | 25 | 2022 | 35 (73GP) | 23 (168GP) | 18:10 | 15:21 | $2.50M 2 years | $2.53M 2 years |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk | 27 | 2018 | 17 (79GP) | 16 (237GP) | 17:03 | 18:08 | $2.30M 2 years | $2.42M 2 years |
| Artem Zub | 26 | 2021 | 24 (47GP) | 24 (47GP) | 18:23 | 18:23 | $2.50M 2 years | $2.56M 2 years |
| Nate Schmidt | 26 | 2017 | 23 (60GP) | 18 (200GP) | 15:29 | 16:34 | $2.23M 2 years | $2.48M 2 years |
| Brandon Manning | 28 | 2018 | 24 (65GP) | 17 (207GP) | 17:57 | 17:23 | $2.25M 2 years | $2.36M 2 years |
Carrier clearly has significantly less value than Pulock and DeAngelo at the time they signed.
However, his career ice time is higher than many comps, and his ice time from his signing season is similar to players listed on the lower end of the table. His production is also fairly comparable to most players listed.
So the $2.35M to $2.75M range seemed likely for any possible two-year deal. As a result, if Carrier feels confident about having a stronger 2023-24 season, he was better off taking a deal for a single year and becoming an unrestricted free agent in 2024, rather than taking extra term now.
1 YEAR
As far as a one-year deal goes though, Carrier’s $2.5M cap hit makes sense.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | Signing Year TOI | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| Alexandre Carrier | 27 | 2023 | 17 (43GP) | 24 (144GP) | 17:53 | 19:34 | ||
| Erik Gustafsson | 28 | 2020 | 36 (221GP) | 44 (221GP) | 20:23 | 19:58 | $3.00M 1 year | $3.07M 1 year |
| Dmitry Orlov | 25 | 2016 | 29 (82GP) | 24 (102GP) | 16:02 | 17:13 | $2.57M 1 year | $2.94M 1 year |
| Patrik Nemeth | 26 | 2018 | 18 (68GP) | 14 (176GP) | 19:51 | 17:17 | $2.50M 1 year | $2.63M 1 year |
| *Dante Fabbro | 25 | 2023 | 12 (56GP) | 20 (230GP) | 16:04 | 18:15 | $2.50M 1 year | $2.50M 1 year |
| *Jan Rutta | 28 | 2018 | 35 (44GP) | 35 (44GP) | 19:16 | 19:16 | $2.25M 1 year | $2.36M 1 year |
| Ethan Bear | 25 | 2022 | 20 (58GP) | 20 (190GP) | 16:05 | 18:57 | $2.20M 1 year | $2.23M 1 year |
He didn’t have the production needed to get up around a $3M cap hit (the range of Gustafsson and Orlov’s adjusted cap hits).
However, anywhere between Bear’s $2.23M adjusted cap hit and Nemeth’s $2.63 adjusted cap hit were pretty much fair game.
Nemeth had similar production and career experience, as well as basically the same ice time, just reversed between signing year and career. Meanwhile, Carrier’s teammate, Dante Fabbro, had lower production and less ice time than Carrier but the near 100 games of additional NHL experience probably offsets that. It’s a similar case with Ethan Bear as well, with extremely similar stats to Fabbro.
Then while Rutta had much better stats than Carrier, he had also played just 44 games at the time of signing.
Final Analysis
Carrier’s one-year deal is probably the right move for him. He’s coming off a bit of a down year, and will now have a lot of leverage with pending UFA status when negotiating his next deal, if he can bounce back next season.
For the Predators, it could be a bit of a missed opportunity to get a longer deal at a good price. A two or three-year deal likely wouldn’t have resulted in much of a higher cap hit (as shown above), and the team could’ve looked to capitalize while Carriers’ value was lower. At the same time, the player likely knew this as well and opted to bet on him self instead.
As for the one-year deal at $2.5M, the cap hit comes in pretty much as expected.
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