After missing almost the entire 2022-23 season due to an injury, what kind of contract will Brown sign in free agency?

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

Player Overview

Connor Brown was initially drafted by the Toronto Maple Leafs in 2012 and spent a good chunk of his OHL career with Connor McDavid as a teammate on the Erie Otters. Then after making the jump to professional hockey, Brown earned an NHL job as part of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ youth movement, taking on a full-time role with the team for the 2016-17 season. He spent three years as a quality, bottom-six winger, producing about 30 points per year.

However, with the Leafs’ cap crunch underway in 20189 Brown was shipped to the Ottawa Senators. From there, the forward was able to take advantage of a greater opportunity with the rebuilding Senators. From his final season with the Leafs in 2018-19 to his first season with the Senators in 2019-20, his ice time increased by over six minutes per game.

We also saw a huge production increase for Brown in his time with Ottawa. After scoring at an 82-game pace of 14 goals and 31 points across his there seasons in Toronto, that 82-game pace became 20 goals and 50 points during his three seasons with the Senators.

Brown was moved to the Washington Capitals for a second-round pick last summer though, and early into the year, disaster struck. The winger tore his ACL, ending his season only four games in. As a result, his value is significantly lower heading in free agency, given teams have no way of knowing what kind of impact he’ll be able to provide after retunring from the injury.

Now, should I have Connor Brown listed as a Top-50 Free Agent? There’s certainly an argument I shouldn’t.

But at his best, Brown is absolutely one of the top 50 free agents available this year. He’s a very effective middle-six winger who can play with a lot of intensity chasing down pucks, and is extremely reliable defensively. While his offensive ceiling isn’t overly high, he can still put up solid numbers, depending on how he’s used in a lineup.

Assuming he does pick up where he left off, Brown will be due for a larger contract next summer.

What We Know

• Elliotte Friedman noted Toronto and Edmonton as the frontrunners to land Connor Brown.
• Chris Johnston also mentioned Edmonton as a likely destination for the Oilers on a low-cost deal, possibly including performance bonuses.

Comparables

While it’s always possible Brown could earn more than just a one-year deal, it has to be considered very unlikely. Rarely would a player miss basically an entire season and walk right into a lengthy deal. So while a longer contract is possible, we’ll only be projecting a one-year deal for Brown.

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1 YEAR

Below, we take a look at some other low-cost, one-year deals signed by forwards with similar production around Brown’s age.

Looking at the sample size of deals, we can assume Brown won’t be up around the projections from the Granlund and Domi deals. Each played their signing season and had fine, even if not great numbers. Even Evan Rodrigues at $2M did put up 43 points.

However, looking at the range of projections from Haula to Athanasiou, we probably find a more defined projection.

To me, Ondrej Kase’s 2021 contract is an excellent comparable. He played just three games the season before signing due to an injury, but was fairly well established as a middle-six forward at that point with nearly identical career production to Brown. He then played 50 games in 2021-22 and earned a $1.5M for another year.

To me, this is the best range for what to expect. It gives Brown the opportunity to go to a team where he’ll be put into a good situation and have a chance to earn a longer contract a year from now.

The other option would be to take a deal with performance bonuses. In this case, we could see the cap hit down around the league minimum, but performance bonuses likely based on games played. Especially for a team like the Oilers who will be tight against the cap, it could be a big help.

Projection

You don’t see many contracts like this, so this deal is a bit tough to predict, but it’s extremely likely it’s for for a single year.

I’d expect the AAV to be somewhere between $1M and $2M, but the question is where it’ll fall within that range and whether it includes performance bonuses.