With Domi’s value higher than it’s been in years, what could he make in free agency?
Player Overview
Max Domi has moved around the league quite a bit in recent years.
After being selected 12th overall by the Arizona Coyotes in 2013, the forward spent only three full seasons with the team before being traded to the Montreal Canadiens. Initially, it seemed like he may have found a permanent home in Montreal, managing 72 points in his first season with the team in 2017-18, still just at 22 years old.
However, he couldn’t repeat the same success in his second second with the Canadiens, as he dropped back to just 44 points in 71 games the following year which were similar numbers to what he had been posting with the Coyotes. So in October of 2020, Domi was dealt to the Columbus Blue Jackets, with Josh Anderson heading the other way.
Columbus is where Domi’s value really started to tank, posting just 24 points in 54 games in his first season with the team in 2021, for the lowest points-per-82 pace of his entire career. When he did rebound a bit in his second season with the Blue Jackets, Domi was traded to the Carolina Hurricanes at the trade deadline, for stop No. 4 of his career.
Stop five was with the Chicago Blackhawks this season, where Domi put together his best season since the first year in Montreal, scoring 18 goals and 49 points in 60 games with Chicago, a pace of 25 goals and 67 points per 82.
The rebuilding Blackhawks then shipped him to the Dallas Stars at the trade deadline, as he joined the sixth team of his career, and while his numbers did slide in the regular season, he had a strong playoff run with the Stars.
At this point, Domi’s value is the highest it’s been in years. The forward hasn’t had more than a two-year deal since his entry-level contract, but this could be the time.
While Domi isn’t the most complete player and there are still questions as to whether he’s better off down the middle or on the wing, he’s a pest to play against and remains a high-end passer. That said, teams should certainly be wary of inconsistent results offensively.
What We Know
- Max Domi reportedly won’t be re-signing with the Stars and is set to hit free agency.
Comparables
Below, we take a look at what Domi’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.
For the comparable contracts, we’ll be looking at centers who were between 26 and 30 years old by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.
6 YEARS
I’ll be starting right with six years for term, given there’s basically no chance Domi gets a seven-year deal. When looking at centers around Domi’s age who signed maximum-term deals, whether at seven or eight years, almost every single one had better production than Domi.
While even six years is highly unlikely, I’ll provide some comparables to reference.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Max Domi | 28 | 2023 | 21-57 (80GP) | 17-52 (581GP) | 19-55 | ||||
| Phillip Danault | 28 | 2021 | 8-37 (53GP) | 12-42 (392GP) | 10-40 | $5.50M 6 years | $5.63M 6 years | 1.41 | $7.74M 6 years |
| Brock Nelson | 28 | 2019 | 25-53 (82GP) | 21-41 (480GP) | 23-47 | $6.00M 6 years | $6.15M 6 years | 1.31 | $7.20M 6 years |
| David Krejci | 29 | 2015 | 19-71 (80GP) | 18-62 (504GP) | 19-67 | $7.25M 6 years | $8.48M 6 years | 1.27 | $6.96M 6 years |
| *Mikael Backlund | 29 | 2018 | 14-48 (58GP) | 16-41 (519GP) | 15-45 | $5.35M 6 years | $5.62M 6 years | 1.25 | $6.87M 6 years |
| **Kyle Turris | 29 | 2018 | 28-59 (89GP) | 21-48 (544GP) | 25-54 | $6.00M 6 years | $6.30M 6 years | 1.17 | $6.42M 6 years |
| *Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 28 | 2020 | 33-55 (60GP) | 17-35 (428GP) | 25-45 | $5.00M 6 years | $5.12M 6 years | 1.14 | $6.23M 6 years |
| Nazem Kadri | 26 | 2016 | 18-49 (76GP) | 20-50 (326GP) | 19-50 | $4.50M 6 years | $5.15M 6 years | 1.03 | $5.67M 6 years |
| *Jonathan Marchessault | 28 | 2018 | 35-87 (35GP) | 27-55 (157GP) | 31-71 | $5.00M 6 years | $5.25M 6 years | 0.74 | $4.07M 6 years |
** Deal signed early into season – stats from that year before signing, as well as previous year are combined for Signing Year stats
Most comps would have Domi at $6M on a six-year deal, but that’s not happening. Domi’s numbers have been extremely inconsistent from year to year, and nobody is likely to take that large of a gamble.
Perhaps a team would pay just above $4M to get Domi on a six-year deal as the projection from Marchessault’s contract would suggest, but it’s still extremely unlikely.
5 YEARS
Even a five-year deal seems significant for Domi, but there are comparables for it.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Max Domi | 28 | 2023 | 21-57 (80GP) | 17-52 (581GP) | 19-55 | ||||
| Brandon Sutter | 27 | 2016 | 22-34 (80GP) | 16-31 (495GP) | 19-33 | $4.38M 5 years | $5.01M 5 years | 1.52 | $8.35M 5 years |
| Artem Anisimov | 28 | 2016 | 11-43 (52GP) | 17-38 (412GP) | 14-41 | $4.55M 5 years | $5.20M 5 years | 1.27 | $6.98M 5 years |
| Adam Henrique | 29 | 2019 | 24-51 (81GP) | 23-47 (512GP) | 24-49 | $5.83M 5 years | $5.97M 5 years | 1.22 | $6.70M 5 years |
| Andrew Copp | 28 | 2022 | 24-60 (72GP) | 14-34 (483GP) | 19-47 | $5.63M 5 years | $5.70M 5 years | 1.21 | $6.67M 5 years |
| Carl Soderberg | 30 | 2015 | 13-44 (82GP) | 15-48 (161GP) | 14-46 | $4.75M 5 years | $5.55M 5 years | 1.21 | $6.64M 5 years |
| *Lars Eller | 29 | 2018 | 17-43 (53GP) | 14-30 (576GP) | 16-37 | $3.50M 5 years | $3.68M 5 years | 0.99 | $5.47M 5 years |
| Ryan Strome | 29 | 2022 | 23-60 (74GP) | 17-47 (621GP) | 20-54 | $5.00M 5 years | $5.06M 5 years | 0.94 | $5.15M 5 years |
Most of these comps would put Domi above the $6M mark as well but again, it’s a gamble.
I don’t think Domi gets as much as a five-year deal, but if he did, I’d put him down around the bottom of these projections. Like Domi, Ryan Strome wasn’t the most well-rounded center, and he got a $5M per year deal for five years, with almost an identical production mid-point. So if Domi actually did get this long of a deal, it’s more likely we see it down around Strome’s projection.
4 YEARS
While there are tons of examples of wingers taking four-year deals around Domi’s age and production, the deals for centers are much less common.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Max Domi | 28 | 2023 | 21-57 (80GP) | 17-52 (581GP) | 19-55 | ||||
| Paul Stastny | 29 | 2014 | 29-69 (71GP) | 24-70 (538GP) | 27-70 | $7.00M 4 years | $8.47M 4 years | 1.21 | $6.66M 4 years |
| Nick Bonino | 29 | 2017 | 18-38 (80GP) | 15-38 (407GP) | 17-38 | $4.10M 4 years | $4.56M 4 years | 1.20 | $6.60M 4 years |
| Pavel Zacha | 26 | 20-23 | 10-49 (82GP) | 14-39 (428GP) | 12-44 | $4.75M 4 years | $4.75M 4 years | 1.08 | $5.94M 4 years |
| Boone Jenner | 29 | 2022 | 16-34 (41GP) | 19-37 (530GP) | 18-36 | $3.75M 4 years | $3.80M 4 years | 1.06 | $5.81M 4 years |
From the comparables, we get a pretty defined range of projections. These would have Domi around $5.9M on the low end and $6.6M on the high end.
This is one of the very few projections articles where, in my opinion, the numbers are suggesting deals that don’t make a ton of sense. Domi has been very inconsistent, and his career stats are mostly inflated from numbers posted many years ago.
As a result, l’ll include some winger comparables for four-year deals below as well, to get a better sense of the possible range.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Max Domi | 28 | 2023 | 21-57 (80GP) | 17-52 (581GP) | 19-55 | ||||
| Tomas Tatar | 27 | 2017 | 25-46 (82GP) | 24-46 (345GP) | 25-46 | $5.30M 4 years | $5.90M 4 years | 1.28 | $7.05M 4 years |
| Kyle Palmieri | 30 | 2021 | 16-34 (51GP) | 25-48 (612GP) | 21-41 | $5.00M 4 years | $5.12M 4 years | 1.25 | $6.86M 4 years |
| Adrian Kempe | 26 | 2022 | 37-57 (78GP) | 19-39 (390GP) | 28-48 | $5.50M 4 years | $5.57M 4 years | 1.16 | $6.38M 4 years |
| Mike Hoffman | 27 | 2016 | 30-62 (78GP) | 26-50 (186GP) | 28-56 | $5.19M 4 years | $5.94M 4 years | 1.06 | $5.83M 4 years |
| Mathieu Perreault | 29 | 2017 | 10-47 (71GP) | 18-41 (361GP) | 18-44 | $4.13M 4 years | $4.60M 4 years | 1.05 | $5.75M 4 years |
| *Mats Zuccarello | 28 | 2015 | 16-51 (60GP) | 17-52 (204GP) | 17-52 | $4.50M 4 years | $5.26M 4 years | 1.01 | $5.56M 4 years |
| Gustav Nyquist | 30 | 2019 | 22-61 (81GP) | 21-50 (500GP) | 22-56 | $5.50M 4 years | $5.63M 4 years | 1.01 | $5.53M 4 years |
| Mikkel Boedker | 27 | 2016 | 17-52 (80GP) | 15-40 (463GP) | 16-46 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.58M 4 years | 1.00 | $5.50M 4 years |
| Taylor Hall | 30 | 2021 | 15-51 (53GP) | 27-72 (680GP) | 21-62 | $6.00M 4 years | $6.15M 4 years | 0.99 | $5.45M 4 years |
| Pavel Buchnevich | 26 | 2021 | 30-73 (54GP) | 22-53 (301GP) | 26-63 | $5.80M 4 years | $5.94M 4 years | 0.94 | $5.19M 4 years |
| Anthony Mantha | 26 | 2020 | 31-72 (43GP) | 26-55 (260GP) | 29-64 | $5.70M 4 years | $5.84M 4 years | 0.91 | $5.02M 4 years |
| *Alex Iafallo | 28 | 2021 | 23-53 (40GP) | 16-39 (267GP) | 20-46 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.10M 4 years | 0.89 | $4.90M 4 years |
| Tyler Toffoli | 28 | 2020 | 29-53 (68GP) | 23-47 (525GP) | 26-50 | $4.25M 4 years | $4.35M 4 years | 0.87 | $4.79M 4 years |
Some of these comps would still have Domi up around $6M. That said, there’s a much greater sample size of projections from about $5.5M and below.
Personally, I’d lean towards Domi being on the lower end of these projections. He’s often played as a winger rather than a center and carries risk based on inconsistent results. The Taylor Hall projection makes sense, given Hall was a player coming off a down year at the time of singing and given his age, his value was lower. Then with Buchnevich, Mantha, and Iafallo, each had only around 300 games played or less and more importantly, each player was coming off an outlier season in their contract year, where they completely outproduced their career numbers.
It’s not the same situation, but they’re examples of players who had something to factor in at the time of signing that ultimately would’ve reduced their payment rate. As a result, I’d expect somewhere from Iafallo’s $4.9M to Hall’s $5.5M to be the most realistic range on a four-year deal for Domi.
3 YEARS
Three years may seem like a short deal for someone with Domi’s production, but this is potentially the range where he could get the most money.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Max Domi | 28 | 2023 | 21-57 (80GP) | 17-52 (581GP) | 19-55 | ||||
| Martin Hanzal | 30 | 2017 | 23-45 (71GP) | 16-43 (628GP) | 20-44 | $4.75M 3 years | $5.29M 3 years | 1.20 | $6.61M 3 years |
| Alexander Wennberg | 27 | 2021 | 25-42 (56GP) | 10-40 (471GP) | 18-41 | $4.50M 3 years | $4.61M 3 years | 1.12 | $6.18M 3 years |
| Mikael Backlund | 26 | 2015 | 16-43 (52GP) | 14-35 (298GP) | 15-39 | $3.58M 3 years | $4.19M 3 years | 1.07 | $5.91M 3 years |
| Sam Gagner | 28 | 2017 | 18-51 (81GP) | 17-47 (696GP) | 18-49 | $3.15M 3 years | $3.51M 3 years | 0.72 | $3.94M 3 years |
The term would carry minimal risk, and Alex Wennberg’s deal is a good comparbale. Wennberg had a good year fresh off a buyout and capitalized with a three-year deal at $4.5M per year. If he had been seeking a longer deal, you can be almost sure that if he got it, the cap hit would be reduced.
I’m not sure that Domi reaches the $6M range that some of these contracts are projecting, but it could be possible to see him right around the $5.5M range.
1/2 YEARS
The last option would be for Domi to bet on himself and take either a one or two-year deal to continue building up his value before hoping to cash in later.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Max Domi | 28 | 2023 | 21-57 (80GP) | 17-52 (581GP) | 19-55 | ||||
| Max Domi | 25 | 2020 | 20-51 (71GP) | 18-55 (371GP) | 19-53 | $5.30M 2 years | $5.43M 2 years | 1.02 | $5.63M 2 years |
| Ryan Strome | 27 | 2020 | 21-69 (70GP) | 16-42 (491GP) | 19-56 | $4.50M 2 years | $4.61M 2 years | 0.82 | $4.53M 2 years |
| Brock Nelson | 27 | 2018 | 19-35 (82GP) | 20-39 (398GP) | 20-37 | $4.25M 1 year | $4.46M 1 year | 1.21 | $6.64M 1 year |
| Kevin Hayes | 26 | 2018 | 27-47 (76GP) | 19-46 (310GP) | 23-47 | $5.18M 1 year | $5.44M 1 year | 1.16 | $6.37M 1 year |
| Andrew Copp | 27 | 2021 | 22-58 (55GP) | 12-30 (411GP) | 17-44 | $3.64M 1 year | $3.73M 1 year | 0.85 | $4.68M 1 year |
| Max Domi | 27 | 2022 | 13-44 (72GP) | 17-51 (501GP) | 15-48 | $3.00M 1 year | $3.04M 1 year | 0.63 | $3.48M 1 year |
There aren’t a ton of examples for this, but we could expect a two-year deal between about $4.5M and $5.5M, based on the the limited comps (one of which is Domi’s 2020 contract). We’ve seen Domi do it before and while I don’t like using comps that have more than a two-year age gap, it’s a realistic example.
I’m not sure that he reaches the $5.6M cap hit that is own previous deal projects, especially with Ryan Strome’s deal projecting a lower cap hit while coming off even better signing year production. That said, a two-year deal is possible.
You could also see him take a one-year deal, like he did last summer. Given he’s been on short-term deals recently, it seems more likely that he’d want to cash in on a deal with term when he has the chance. That said, there are a range of comps on a one-year deal (though most came after arbitration filings), which would put him somewhere between $3.5M and $6.6M. Again, these are two different extremes, but we could see him somewhere in between, similar to a projected price on a two-year deal.
Projection
This deal is a little tougher to predict, but three or four years seems like the most realistic scenario for Domi.
| Term | Projected Cap Hit | Maximum | Minimum |
| 4 Years | $5.25M | $5.75M | $4.75M |
| 3 Years | $5.50M | $6.00M | $5.00M |
That said, we could also seem him get a deal as long as five years, or take another short-term contract for a year or two.
| Term | Projected Cap Hit | Maximum | Minimum |
| 1/2 Years | $5.00M | $5.50M | $4.50M |
| 5 Years | $5.00M | $6.00M | $5.00M |
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