After a decade in Minnesota, Dumba is likely to find a new home in free agency.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

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Player Overview

From the time he was drafted 7th overall by the Minnesota Wild in 2012, Matt Dumba has spent his entire career with the organization.

After brief stint with the AHL’s Iowa Wild, Dumba emerged as an NHL regular by the time he was just 20 years old in the 2014-15 NHL season. By 2015-16, he played a full NHL season, and then saw a huge increase in usage for the 2016-17 season, averaging more than 20 minutes per game.

Dumba continued on to have the best season of his career in 2017-18, where he posted 14 goals and 50 points in 82 games, while playing nearly 24 minutes per game.

Then while he looked to be well on his way to surpassing those numbers in the following season, with 22 points in 33 games to start the year, he tore his pectoral muscle in a fight and ended up missing the remainder of the season.

When he returned in the 2019-20 season, he wasn’t quite the same and over the last three seasons, he’s never been able to regain his high-end production. Between three years from 2019-20 to 2021-22, Dumba managed a pace of just 33 points per 82 , which, while still solid, is nowhere near what he was trending before the injury.

Then this season, Dumba saw both his production and ice time reduced. His 14 points were lowest of any season of his entire career, with his ice time was also the lowest it’s been since the 2016-17 season. While the defender can still take on a top-four role wherever he goes, his value has dropped in recent years.

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What We Know

• Dumba said after the trade deadline that Minnesota is where he wants to be.
• That said, Minnesota is in a tough spot salary cap-wise, being hit with nearly $16M in dead cap space for each of the next two years, thanks to the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts.

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Comparables

Below, we take a look at contract projections for different possible terms. For more information on the stats/tables used in the projection, visit the About the Site page.

Note: The comparables used are defensemen who signed their contract at a similar age. All ages listed are related to how old the player was by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.

7 YEARS

While Dumba may have been set for a seven-year deal if he was a free agent few years ago, it’s now likely off the table.

If you look at comparables below, all other players listed who signed a seven-year deal had significantly better production in their signing year, and almost all had better production over their career as well. Most also had more ice time.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $83.5M Cap Hit
Matt Dumba	29	2023	15 (79GP)	32 (598GP)	21:17	20:37
Dougie Hamilton	28	2021	63 (55GP)	46 (607GP)	22:43	20:27	$9.00M 7 years	$9.22M 7 years
Alex Pietrangelo	30	2020	61 (70GP)	49 (758GP)	24:11	24:38	$8.80M 7 years	$9.02M 7 years
Jared Spurgeon	31	2020	43 (82GP)	35 (591GP)	24:09	22:21	$7.58M 7 years	$7.77M 7 years
Keith Yandle	30	2016	47 (82GP)	46 (661GP)	19:58	21:10	$6.35M 7 years	$7.26M 7 years
Ryan McDonagh	30	2019	38 (63GP)	37 (530GP)	23:20	23:30	$6.75M 7 years	$6.92M 7 years
Justin Faulk	28	2019	35 (82GP)	38 (559GP)	22:25	23:16	$6.50M 7 years	$6.66M 7 years
Torey Krug	29	2020	66 (61GP)	66 (61GP)	20:29	20:19	$6.50M 7 years	$6.66M 7 years
Jonas Brodin	28	2021	33 (69GP)	22 (555GP)	21:33	21:50	$6.00M 7 years	$6.15M 7 years

Dumba isn’t necessarily in the caliber of players who would receive a seven-year deal.

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6 YEARS

Defensemen around Dumba’s age rarely get six-year deals. It’s typically either a full seven-year deal, or down at five years or less.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $83.5M Cap Hit
Matt Dumba	29	2023	15 (79GP)	32 (598GP)	21:17	20:37
**Nate Schmidt	28	2019	39 (84GP)	24 (284GP)	22:14	18:08	$5.95M 6 years	$6.10M 6 years

Comparing him to Nate Schmidt, Dumba had the better career numbers and more NHL experience, but the less-impactful signing season. So while he could approach $6M on a six-year deal, without any other comparables around his age, it’s tough to judge appropriately.

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5 YEARS

Five years would be a much more likely term for Dumba’s deal, and arguably the expected length.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $83.5M Cap Hit
Matt Dumba	29	2023	15 (79GP)	32 (598GP)	21:17	20:37
Alex Goligoski	29	2016	37 (82GP)	40 (562GP)	23:50	22:37	$5.45M 5 years	$6.27M 5 years
Tyler Myers	29	2019	32 (80GP)	34 (635GP)	20:21	22:22	$6.00M 5 years	$6.15M 5 years
*Chris Tanev	26	2015	22 (61GP)	16 (217GP)	21:01	18:49	$4.45M 5 years	$5.20M 5 years
*Rasmus Ristolainen	28	2022	23 (50GP)	36 (592GP)	21:26	23:37	$5.10M 5 years	$5.16M 5 years
David Savard	26	2016	36 (82GP)	27 (187GP)	22:57	19:46	$4.25M 5 years	$4.86M 5 years
Jamie Oleskiak	29	2021	21 (56GP)	16 (369GP)	20:29	16:09	$4.60M 5 years	$4.71M 5 years

Looking at the comparables, we do also get a pretty good idea of what to expect for a contract.

Dumba likely wouldn’t come in as high as Goligoski’s $6.27M adjusted cap hit, based on both lower production and usage. At the same time, he wouldn’t be as low as Savard or Oleksiak either. He had better numbers than both players over his career, and while Savard did have the better signing year stats, he also had significantly less NHL experience, which would’ve impacted his payment rate.

This leaves the probable range for Dumba’s contract between $5.15M and $6.15M, from the Ristolainen, Tanev and Myers contracts.

From there, it does get a little bit more difficult to pin-point where the contract could land. Myers had the better production, and while Dumba did have slightly more ice time in his signing year, that’s about all he has going for him in comparison to Myers statically.

Looking at Tanev and Ristolainen on the low end of the range though, Ristolainen presents a really interesting comparison. Like Dumba, Ristolainen saw a drop in production during his signing year, along with reduced ice time. It would be easy to say that $5.15M adjusted cap hit should be the best comparison for Dumba.

However, you could also absolutely argue Dumba’s deal should come in above Tanev’s cap hit. Dumba had the greater usage and production over his career, about the same ice time in his signing year, and only slightly lower production in his signing year. He also had significantly more NHL experience at the time of singing.

So while he may not reach the $6M mark again, it’s also fairly likely that Dumba comes in above the $5M projections as well, likely landing somewhere in the middle.

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4 YEARS

Four years is probably the shortest term we’d see for Dumba.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $83.5M Cap Hit
Matt Dumba	29	2023	15 (79GP)	32 (598GP)	21:17	20:37
Kevin Shattenkirk	28	2017	57 (80GP)	50 (480GP)	19:56	21:06	$6.65M 4 years	$7.40M 4 years
*Jared Spurgeon	27	2016	44 (32GP)	30 (307GP)	22:18	21:01	$5.19M 4 years	$5.94M 4 years
T.J. Brodie	30	2021	24 (64GP)	34 (634GP)	20:27	22:35	$5.00M 4 years	$5.12M 4 years
Brendan Smith	28	2017	14 (51GP)	19 (309GP)	19:15	18:07	$4.35M 4 years	$4.84M 4 years
Kris Russell	30	2017	16 (67GP)	24 (641 GP)	21:13	19:24	$4.00M 4 years	$4.45M 4 years
Connor Murphy	29	2022	25 (50GP)	18 (494GP)	22:09	19:06	$4.40M 4 years	$4.45M 4 years
Jake Gardiner	29	2019	40 (62GP)	36 (551GP)	21:13	21:21	$4.05M 4 years	$4.15M 4 years
Adam Larsson	29	2021	15 (56GP)	19 (603GP)	19:39	20:42	$4.00M 4 years	$4.10M 4 years
Jake McCabe	28	2021	17 (79GP)	18 (353GP)	18:38	19:15	$4.00M 4 years	$4.10M 4 years
Erik Gudbranson	30	2022	18 (78GP)	12 (641GP)	18:08	18:11	$4.00M 4 years	$4.05M 4 years

Looking at the range of comparable contracts from $4M and up, we can assume Dumba would get more than any of Larsson, McCabe and Gudbranson, based on better numbers than each player in almost every category. Then as I’ve noted before with Jake Gardiner, while his numbers do look great, he was also well-established as a defensive liability at the time, and took advantage of a large role on a weak blue line in Toronto.

Additionally, while Connor Murphy had the better signing year, Dumba’s stats over his career were far better, and Dumba should be comfortably above Brendan Smith and Kris Russell as well.

On the higher end though, Dumba probably isn’t going to get up to the cap hits of Shattenkirk or Spurgeon. Each defender had much better production, with more usage over their career as well.

That said, there’s one contract that acts as a great comparable here, and it’s T.J. Brodie’s deal. Like Dumba, the defenseman saw a decline in both points and ice time in his signing year. The numbers aren’t perfect comparables and Brodie did arguably provide more value at the time of signing, but was also 30 years old when becoming a free agent, which only carries more risk of decline.

As a result, Brodie’s $5.12M adjusted cap hit is probably that best number we have to go off when establishing a range for Dumba’s cap hit on a four-year deal.

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Projection

Entering free agency, Dumba is most likely to receive a four or five-year deal.

Term	Projected Cap Hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
5 Years	$5.50M	$6.25M	$5.00M
4 Years	$5.25M	$6.00M	$5.00M

It’s also possible we could see Dumba get a six-year contract. That said, you rarely see six-year deals given out for players around his age, so we don’t have much to go off. My projection for a six-year deal would be below:

Term	Projected Cap Hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
6 Years	$5.50M	$6.00M	$5.00M