What We Know

• Orlov is hoping for a long-term deal.
• Bruins general manager Don Sweeney also noted that Orlov is unlikely to be re-signed.

Comparables

Below, we take a look at contract projections for different possible terms. For more information on the stats/tables used in the projection, visit the About the Site page.

Note: The comparables used are defensemen who signed their contract at a similar age. All ages listed are related to how old the player was by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.

7/8 YEARS

At 32 years old, Orlov shouldn’t be getting maximum term.

When you look at defensemen who got seven or eight-year deals around the same age, Orlov just isn’t in the same range.

Of the nine comparables, Doughty, Josi, Burns, and Pietrangelo basically blow Orlov away in every category.

Many of the others were captains, coming off multiple Stanley Cup wins, or still had better stats than Orlov in most categories. Even looking at the group of comparbales as a whole, Orlov had lower average ice time throughout his career than every other player listed. His career production also ranked lower than eight of the nine comps.

So while he’s coming off a strong season, Orlov isn’t the caliber of player to get maximum term at his age.

6 YEARS

From what I can see, Mark Giordano and Kris Letang are the only defenders in the last nine years to sign a six-year deal where they’ll be at least 31 years old in the first year of the contract.

Orlov really isn’t very comparbale to either defender at the time or signing. Giordano and Letang were better in every category, between both production and ice time.

The only thing that Orlov has going for him versus the comps is he’s signing at a younger age. At the same time, six years would be significant term and you have to think if Orlov were to get that long of a deal, he’d be quite a ways lower in terms of cap hit than on a shorter deal. It’s just a matter of determining how much lower.

5 YEARS

Like six-year deals, we also really don’t see five-year deals for defensemen around Orlov’s age.

Of the comparables, we know Orlov would be well, well below Byfuglien’s adjusted cap hit. He had lower production both in his singing year and career, and lower ice time in both as well.

Meanwhile, we know he’d be significantly higher than Johnson’s deal, based on both signing year production and usage.

Goligoski’s deal is much more comparable, though. The production is very similar, though Orlov did have lower ice time. So while Orlov may not reach the $6.3M that Goligoski’s deal would project, and there’s not really much of a baseline of how far off he would be, we can assume a five-year deal may come in with a slightly lower cap hit than a four-year deal, or slightly higher than a six-year deal, given the different degrees of risk associated with each term.

We can predict though he’d be right around the $6M mark on a five-year deal.

4 YEARS

Given Orlov is looking for term, chances are, he’ll get at least four years. He’s still a good enough defenseman playing a large enough role to receive that type of contract.

That said, four years would still be the most expected length for Orlov’s next deal.

Looking at the comparables, Orlov brings more value than most of these players listred.

That said, the three legitimate comps for a deal would be Petry, Ekholm and Muzzin, projecting a range of about $5.75M to $6.40M.

Orlov had very similar production to Petry, and while his ice time was lower, he was also starting the deal at 32 rather than 34, which carries less risk. Then with Ekholm, Orlov had better production but lower ice time, and with Muzzin, Orlov had the better singing year numbers, but had slightly lower numbers over his career.

So it’s a bit hard to tell where exactly Orlov would fall within this range. He should likely come in above Muzzin, but the question would be how close Orlov could get to the $6.3M/$6.4M adjusted cap hits of Ekholm and Petry. Somewhere right around the initial $6.25M contracts seems realistic.

Projection

A four-year deal remains the most likely term for Orlov’s upcoming contract.

At the same time, we know he’s after a long-term deal and there are comparables that would put him at five or six years. Regardless of how long he signs for, we can assume the longer the deal goes, the lower the cap hit should be.