Meier is staying with the Devils on an eight-year deal, but the price was steep.
Shortly after signing Jesper Bratt to an eight-year contract extension, the New Jersey Devils have locked up Timo Meier to an eight-year contract as well. Meier will turn 27 years old for the start of the coming season and his contract carries an $8.8 million cap hit.
The deal also carries a no-move clause from 2024 until 2028, before becoming a modified no-trade clause in 2029.
While all of our designated Top-50 Free Agents will get a projection article, Meier signed his deal before the projection was released. So instead, we’ll take a look at comparable contracts to evaluate how the deal looks for the Devils, and whether it carries fair value.
Player Overview
After being selected ninth overall by the San Jose Sharks in 2014, Meier returned to junior for one more year (where he won a QMJHL Championship), before splitting his first professional season between the NHL and AHL in 2016-17.
Meier was a full-time NHLer by the 2017-18 season, but it was in the 2018-19 season where the winger really broke out, scoring 30 goals and 66 points in 78 games with the Sharks. He did slow down a bit though in the years that followed, scoring at an 82-game pace of just 22 goals and 53 points across 124 games between the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons.
However, Meier bounced back in a big way for the 2021-22 season, posting 35 goals and 76 points in 77 games for his best season yet.
Heading into the final year of his contract though and with the Sharks not in a competitive spot, questions were raised about Meier’s long-term future in San Jose. With the Sharks unable to keep up yet again this past season, Meier was dealt the Devils for a huge package of future assets.
By the time the regular season came to an end, Meier had scored 40 goals and 66 points in 78 games.
A power forward, Meier plays a heavy game, but has the tools to put up big numbers with New Jersey. He can basically do it all offensively, able to carry the puck with great pace and contol it in traffic, along with possessing a wrist shot with both an excellent release and tons of power.
At just 27 years old, Meier is set to help the Devils for a long time.
What We Know
- Meier and the Devils reportedly began contract talks in early June.
Comparables
Below, we take a look at comparables for different contract cap hits and lengths, and try to determine if Meier’s deal was warranted.
For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.
For the comparable contracts, we’ll be looking at wingers who were between 25 and 29 years old by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.
8 YEARS
There’s no issue giving Meier an eight-year deal. He’s still only 27 years old and players with his production warrant hat kind of term.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Timo Meier | 27 | 2023 | 42-69 (78GP) | 28-57 (472GP) | 35-63 | ||||
| Jeff Skinner | 27 | 2019 | 40-63 (82GP) | 30-55 (661GP) | 35-59 | $9.00M 8 years | $9.22M 8 years | 1.56 | $9.85M 8 years |
| Patrick Kane | 27 | 2015 | 34-82 (69GP) | 28-78 (515GP) | 31-80 | $10.50M 8 years | $12.28M 8 years | 1.53 | $9.67M 8 years |
| Jakub Voracek | 27 | 2016 | 22-81 (82GP) | 19-57 (531GP) | 21-69 | $8.25M 8 years | $9.44M 8 years | 1.37 | $8.62M 8 years |
| Jamie Benn | 28 | 2017 | 41-89 (82GP) | 31-72 (508GP) | 36-81 | $9.50M 8 years | $10.58M 8 years | 1.31 | $8.23M 8 years |
| Mark Stone | 27 | 2019 | 26-82 (64GP) | 28-70 (366GP) | 27-76 | $9.50M 8 years | $9.73M 8 years | 1.28 | $8.07M 8 years |
| **Roope Hintz | 27 | 2023 | 36-77 (103GP) | 28-61 (261GP) | 31-69 | $8.45M 8 years | $8.45M 8 years | 1.22 | $7.72M 8 years |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 27 | 2022 | 30-69 (62GP) | 14-35 (405GP) | 22-52 | $6.13M 8 years | $6.20M 8 years | 1.19 | $7.52M 8 years |
| Jesper Bratt | 25 | 2023 | 32-73 (82GP) | 22-58 (389GP) | 27-66 | $7.88M 8 years | $7.88M 8 years | 1.19 | $7.52M 8 years |
| Brad Marchand | 29 | 2017 | 39-65 (77GP) | 28-52 (454GP) | 34-59 | $6.13M 8 years | $6.82M 8 years | 1.16 | $7.28M 8 years |
| *David Pastrnak | 27 | 2023 | 58-112 (61GP) | 41-84 (571GP) | 50-98 | $11.25M 8 years | $11.25M 8 years | 1.15 | $7.23M 8 years |
| Nikita Kucherov | 26 | 2019 | 40-103 (80GP) | 33-75 (365GP) | 37-89 | $9.50M 8 years | $9.73M 8 years | 1.09 | $6.89M 8 years |
| Matthew Tkachuk | 25 | 2022 | 42-104 (82GP) | 29-73 (431GP) | 36-89 | $9.50M 8 years | $9.62M 8 years | 1.08 | $6.80M 8 years |
** Deal signed early into season – stats from that year before signing, as well as previous year are combined for Signing Year stats
That said, there’s a legitimate argument the Devils overpaid him on the contract.
Looking at the projection range, comparables would had him coming in anywhere between $6.80M and $9.85M.
On the high-end though, both the Kane and Skinner deals were huge overpayments and are always outliers when compared against other contracts signed by players around the same age. On the low-end, as Ive mentioned in other projections: of Pastrnak, Kucherov and Tkachuk had an 82-game pace of at least 100 points in their signing year, so it’s natural their payment rate could be lower, as their one really strong season wouldn’t affect their cap hit as much as it would skew the production mid point in the projection. So while projections from Kane and Skinner were unreasonably high, we also know the Pastrnak, Kucherov and Tkachuk projections from $6.80M to $7.23M were probably lower than they should’ve been.
So the more realistic range based on comparables would be $7.28M from Marchand’s deal to $8.62M from Voracek’s contract. Obviously though, Meier’s deal came in above that mark.
Even Jesper Bratt, who just signed with the Devils, had better production than Meier and got $1M less. Bratt’s payment rate would’ve put Meier at $7.5M per year instead. You could argue that Meier’s goal-scoring ability is what’s influencing the higher payment rate. But if you look at the comparables, many of the players who had high goal totals didn’t necessarily get the bigger deals at all.
Of the comparables, five of the 12 projections would’ve put Meier between $7.50M and $8.25M and to me, this was the more realistic range.
I’ve used this example before for other projections, but even comparing Meier’s deals against more productive and experienced centers, Meier was being paid quite a bit more via payment rate.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Timo Meier | 27 | 2023 | 42-69 (78GP) | 28-57 (472GP) | 35-63 | $8.80M 8 years | $8.80M 8 years | 1.40 | |
| *Tomas Hertl | 29 | 2022 | 35-67 (59GP) | 26-54 (562GP) | 31-61 | $8.14M 8 years | $8.24M 8 years | 1.35 | |
| Mika Zibanejad | 29 | 2022 | 35-73 (56GP) | 27-59 (604GP) | 31-66 | $8.50M 8 years | $8.60M 3 years | 1.30 | |
| *Dylan Larkin | 27 | 2023 | 31-79 (59GP) | 25-60 (563GP) | 28-70 | $8.70M 8 years | $8.70M 8 years | 1.24 |
Obviously, wingers generally are not paid the same as centers, and for Meier’s deal to come in above those contracts doesn’t make a ton of sense.
So to conclude, many comparable projections would’ve had Meier around $8M on an eight-year deal, so $8.8M is a moderate overpayment.
7 YEARS
Any other length was very unlikely for Meier’s deal, but we will look at a few others possible terms.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Timo Meier | 27 | 2023 | 42-69 (78GP) | 28-57 (472GP) | 35-63 | ||||
| Anders Lee | 29 | 2019 | 28-51 (82GP) | 29-50 (425GP) | 29-51 | $7.00M 7 years | $7.17M 7 years | 1.41 | $8.86M 7 years |
| Artemi Panarin | 28 | 2019 | 29-90 (79GP) | 30-81 (322GP) | 30-86 | $11.64M years | $11.93M 7 years | 1.39 | $8.76M 7 years |
| Evander Kane | 27 | 2018 | 30-57 (78GP) | 27-51 (574GP) | 29-54 | $7.00M 7 years | $7.35M 7 years | 1.36 | $8.57M 7 years |
| Milan Lucic | 28 | 2016 | 20-56 (81GP) | 20-50 (647GP) | 20-53 | $6.00M 7 years | $6.86M 7 years | 1.29 | $8.15M 7 years |
| *Chris Kreider | 29 | 2020 | 33-62 (60GP) | 25-50 (520GP) | 38-56 | $6.50M 7 years | $6.66M 7 years | 1.19 | $7.49M 7 years |
| Kevin Fiala | 26 | 2022 | 33-85 (82GP) | 24-55 (419GP) | 29-70 | $7.88M 7 years | $7.98M 7 years | 1.14 | $7.18M 7 years |
| Kyle Okposo | 28 | 2016 | 23-66 (79GP) | 22-57 (529GP) | 23-62 | $6.00M 7 years | $6.86M 7 years | 1.11 | $6.97M 7 years |
| Zach Hyman | 29 | 2021 | 29-63 (43GP) | 20-44 (345GP) | 25-54 | $5.50M 7 years | $5.63M 7 years | 1.04 | $6.57M 7 years |
| Johnny Gaudreau | 29 | 2022 | 40-115 (82GP) | 29-83 (602GP) | 35-99 | $9.75M 7 years | $9.87M 7 years | 1.00 | $6.28M 7 years |
Chances are Meier would’ve only signed for seven years if he hit free agency. There was no reason to take less, given his production.
That said, it does provide a few more comparables that would’ve put Meier up above $8.5M, in Anders Lee, Artemi Panarin and Evander Kane. Perhaps it is does point to the fact that if Meier got to UFA status, he could make that much money.
Again though, six of the nine comparables would’ve had Meier at $8.15M or below, with most significantly lower.
So while seven years wouldn’t have been likely for Meier with New Jersey, most projections for that length also didn’t have Meier getting close to $8.8M per year.
I’m going to skip right over any possible five or six-year deals, given it wouldn’t make sense from Meier’s end. It would mean he’d re-enter free agency in 2028 or 2029, when he’s 32 or 33 years old and has far less leverage. If he was taking a long-term deal, he’d make more money just going for maximum-term now as opposed to going a few years short and trying to make more later.
However, a three or four-year deal could’ve make sense.
3/4 YEARS
If Meier took a three-year now, he could re-enter free agency at 30 years old in 20216 and look to get a long-term deal later to aim for a maximum pay-out.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Timo Meier | 27 | 2023 | 42-69 (78GP) | 28-57 (472GP) | 35-63 | ||||
| Patrik Laine | 24 | 2022 | 38-82 (56GP) | 35-66 (407GP) | 37-74 | $8.70M 4 years | $8.81M 4 years | 1.19 | $7.50M 4 years |
| Pavel Buchnevich | 26 | 2021 | 30-73 (54GP) | 22-53 (301GP) | 26-63 | $5.80M 4 years | $5.94M 4 years | 0.94 | $5.94M 4 years |
| Anthony Mantha | 26 | 2020 | 31-72 (43GP) | 26-55 (260GP) | 29-64 | $5.70M 4 years | $5.84M 4 years | 0.91 | $5,75M 4 years |
| Sam Reinhart | 26 | 2021 | 38-61 (54GP) | 24-53 (454GP) | 31-57 | $6.50M 3 years | $6.66M 3 years | 1.17 | $7.36M 3 years |
| Brock Boeser | 25 | 2022 | 27-53 (71GP) | 31-65 (324GP) | 29-59 | $6.65M 3 years | $6.73M 3 years | 1.14 | $7.19M 3 years |
| Mikael Granlund | 25 | 2017 | 26-70 (81GP) | 15-51 (321GP) | 21-61 | $5.75M 3 years | $6.40M 3 years | 1.05 | $6.61M 3 years |
If Meier could’ve gotten a three-year deal around a $7M cap hit or higher (like the range Reinhart to Granlund’s deals would project), there was at least some reasoning to it. Again, it was extremely unlikely though.
1/2 YEARS
Aside from a long-term deal, perhaps the second-most likely scenario was the Devils not being able to reach an extension with Meier at all.
In this case, the options would’ve been either to trade him or aim to sign him to a one-year deal, based on his qualifying offer.
While there aren’t really comparables for players of his caliber and age taking a two-year deal, Meier’s qualifying offer on a one-year deal would’ve been $10M, walking him to UFA status in 2024.
Obviously, that was never ideal, but it was a possibility.
Final Analysis
If Meier was signing long-term with New Jersey, he was probably always going to get an eight-year deal.
That said, it’s the cap hit that’s a bit questionable. Most projections from comparables would’ve had Meier around $8M, with many even suggesting it could come in a bit lower. So it is a moderate overpay.
If Meier can sustain his production and manage 35 goals and around 70+ points going forward, you won’t hear complaints about the deal. At the same time, he’s also just two years removed from posting just 12 goals and 31 points in 54 games (a pace of 18 goals and 47 points per 82). While his shooting percentage was significantly lower that season, he also had an underwhelming postseason with the Devils, scoring two goals and four points in 11 games. This is just to say that there’s reason to be skeptical of paying as much as the Devils did for what has been inconsistent production at times.
While Meier could end up making this deal look just fine, as of now, it is an overpay.
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