Graves seems likely to join his third NHL team.

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

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Player Overview

Ryan Graves really hasn’t been around the NHL for all that long, but he’s managed to establish himself as a top-four defenseman.

After being selected in just the fourth round of the 2013 NHL Draft by the Colorado Avalanche, Graves only became an NHL regular in 2019. However, he quickly grew his role from there, and over two seasons with Colorado, Graves was already averaging 19 minutes per game.

While Graves likely could’ve been a long-term fit with Colorado, the 2021 Expansion Draft threw a wrench into that. With the Avalanche not willing to lose him for nothing, Graves was dealt to New Jersey.

The defenseman took advantage of the opportunity, playing around 20 minutes per game over two seasons with the Devils. However, Graves may have played himself out of New Jersey as a result, likely for a raise over his current $3.17M cap hit.

Graves is good around his own net, but can still get caught out of position from time to time off the rush. He can contribute offensively as well though, good for about 25-30 points per season.

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What We Know

• According to James Nichols of New Jersey Hockey Now, Graves’ agent Allain Roy indicated the team would need to see if they had cap space available.
• It’s unlikely Graves returns to New Jersey. In his exit interview, Graves resembled a player who was aware he was likely to head elsewhere.

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Comparables

Below, we take a look at contract projections for different possible terms. For more information on the stats/tables used in the projection, visit the About the Site page.

Note: The comparables used are defensemen who signed their contract at a similar age. All ages listed are related to how old the player was by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.

7 YEARS

Once July 1 hits, Graves would only be eligible for a maximum of a seven-year contract.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $83.5M Cap Hit
Ryan Graves	28	2023	27 (78GP)	27 (302GP)	19:57	18:59
Dougie Hamilton	28	2021	63 (55GP)	46 (607GP)	22:43	20:27	$9.00M 7 years	$9.22M 7 years
Alex Pietrangelo	30	2020	61 (70GP)	49 (758GP)	24:11	24:38	$8.80M 7 years	$9.02M 7 years
Jared Spurgeon	31	2020	43 (82GP)	35 (591GP)	24:09	22:21	$7.58M 7 years	$7.77M 7 years
Keith Yandle	30	2016	47 (82GP)	46 (661GP)	19:58	21:10	$6.35M 7 years	$7.26M 7 years
Ryan McDonagh	30	2019	38 (63GP)	37 (530GP)	23:20	23:30	$6.75M 7 years	$6.92M 7 years
Justin Faulk	28	2019	35 (82GP)	38 (559GP)	22:25	23:16	$6.50M 7 years	$6.66M 7 years
Torey Krug	29	2020	66 (61GP)	66 (61GP)	20:29	20:19	$6.50M 7 years	$6.66M 7 years
Jonas Brodin	28	2021	33 (69GP)	22 (555GP)	21:33	21:50	$6.00M 7 years	$6.15M 7 years

That said, it remains highly unlikely he gets this kind of term.

Looking at other defensemen who received seven-year deals around his age, they had more ice time both in their signing season and over their career, better production in their signing year, and significantly more NHL experience.

So while a team may offer Graves a seven-year deal below $6M (the lowest projection on the table above), again, it’s very unlikely.

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6 YEARS

Six year deals typically aren’t given out to UFA defenders in their 20s – you’ll usually either see a seven-year deal, or a five-year deal if a player is around that range.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $83.5M Cap Hit
Ryan Graves	28	2023	27 (78GP)	27 (302GP)	19:57	18:59
**Nate Schmidt	28	2019	39 (84GP)	24 (284GP)	22:14	18:08	$5.95M 6 years	$6.10M 6 years

A recent example though is Nate Schmidt’s contract with the Vegas Golden Knights in 2019. However, Schmidt also had much higher production and ice time in his signing year. Given the players had similar experience before signing their respective contracts, if Graves did get six years, it should be well below $6M, likely closer to the $5M mark.

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5 YEARS

Five years is a more likely term for Graves’ deal in free agency.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $83.5M Cap Hit
Ryan Graves	28	2023	27 (78GP)	27 (302GP)	19:57	18:59
Alex Goligoski	29	2016	37 (82GP)	40 (562GP)	23:50	22:37	$5.45M 5 years	$6.27M 5 years
Tyler Myers	29	2019	32 (80GP)	34 (635GP)	20:21	22:22	$6.00M 5 years	$6.15M 5 years
*Chris Tanev	26	2015	22 (61GP)	16 (217GP)	21:01	18:49	$4.45M 5 years	$5.20M 5 years
*Rasmus Ristolainen	28	2022	23 (50GP)	36 (592GP)	21:26	23:37	$5.10M 5 years	$5.16M 5 years
David Savard	26	2016	36 (82GP)	27 (187GP)	22:57	19:46	$4.25M 5 years	$4.86M 5 years
Jamie Oleskiak	29	2021	21 (56GP)	16 (369GP)	20:29	16:09	$4.60M 5 years	$4.71M 5 years

Looking at the comps, both Graves’ production and ice time are much more similar to a lot of the deals seen.

While Goligoski’s stats stand out on their own, the Oleksiak, Ristolainen and Myers deals provide a defined projection range, from $4.7M to $6.1M.

Myers had better production than Graves, along with higher career ice time and more NHL experience at the time of signing. As a result, we can expect Graves is lower than Myers’ $6M cap hit.

That said, Graves’ numbers look more comparable to the likes of Chris Tanev, Rasmus Ristolainen, David Savard and Jamie Oleksiak.

Looking at the two projections right around $5.2M, while Ristolainen had better production/more ice time over his career, Graves had the better career production than Tanev, very similar average ice time over his career, and even more NHL experience.

Then while Graves had lower signing year production than Savard, as well as lower ice time, he had both better production and much higher average ice time over his career when compared to Oleksiak.

As a result, we could expect Graves’ deal to come in somewhere right around these projections, near the $5M mark.

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4 YEARS

Four years is likely the minimum length for Graves’ deal. He’ll be into his 30s by the time he’s eligible to hit the market again, so getting security will be important, and there aren’t a ton of comps for shorter deals.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year P/82	Career P/82	TOI Season	Career TOI	Contract	On $83.5M Cap Hit
Ryan Graves	28	2023	27 (78GP)	27 (302GP)	19:57	18:59
Kevin Shattenkirk	28	2017	57 (80GP)	50 (480GP)	19:56	21:06	$6.65M 4 years	$7.40M 4 years
*Jared Spurgeon	27	2016	44 (32GP)	30 (307GP)	22:18	21:01	$5.19M 4 years	$5.94M 4 years
T.J. Brodie	30	2021	24 (64GP)	34 (634GP)	20:27	22:35	$5.00M 4 years	$5.12M 4 years
Brendan Smith	28	2017	14 (51GP)	19 (309GP)	19:15	18:07	$4.35M 4 years	$4.84M 4 years
Kris Russell	30	2017	16 (67GP)	24 (641 GP)	21:13	19:24	$4.00M 4 years	$4.45M 4 years
Connor Murphy	29	2022	25 (50GP)	18 (494GP)	22:09	19:06	$4.40M 4 years	$4.45M 4 years
Jake Gardiner	29	2019	40 (62GP)	36 (551GP)	21:13	21:21	$4.05M 4 years	$4.15M 4 years
Adam Larsson	29	2021	15 (56GP)	19 (603GP)	19:39	20:42	$4.00M 4 years	$4.10M 4 years
Jake McCabe	28	2021	17 (79GP)	18 (353GP)	18:38	19:15	$4.00M 4 years	$4.10M 4 years
Erik Gudbranson	30	2022	18 (78GP)	12 (641GP)	18:08	18:11	$4.00M 4 years	$4.05M 4 years
Brenden Dillon	30	2020	17 (69GP)	16 (598GP)	19:27	18:34	$3.90M 4 years	$4.00M 4 years
Radko Gudas	26	2016	15 (76GP)	19 (202GP)	19:51	18:50	$3.35M 4 years	$3.83M 4 years
Matt Grzelcyk	26	2020	25 (68GP)	22 (197GP)	18:04	17:57	$3.69M 4 years	$3.78M 4 years
Joel Edmundson	27	2020	24 (68GP)	18 (337GP)	18:27	18:15	$3.50M 4 years	$3.59M 4 years
Marco Scandella	30	2021	17 (62GP)	19 (580GP)	17:35	19:50	$3.28M 4 years	$3.36M 4 years
Dylan DeMelo	27	2020	14 (59GP)	20 (269GP)	20:09	17:01	$3.00M 4 years	$3.07M 4 years

Looking at where Graves could land on a four-year deal, we know he’d be quite a bit lower than both Shattenkirk and Spurgeon’s deals, even if just based solely on production. This puts him well under $6M per year.

On the low end though, Graves also had better production in his signing year and over his career than every defender from Adam Larsson down to Dylan DeMelo. He also had more ice time in his signing year than every player listed from Larsson down (other than DeMelo, but he had much higher average career ice time). So we know Graves should be above the $4.10M mark.

So it’s a matter of determining where he fits between Brodie’s $5.1M adjusted cap hit and Gardiner’s $4.1M adjusted cap hit.

At the $4.1M comp, while Gardiner did have more ice time and better production, he also had a reputation as a defensive liability, which didn’t help his value.

At the $4.5M comps, Graves had better production than both Murphy and Russell, but he did have lower ice time than both. So generally, it makes for a fair range.

At the $5M comps, Graves may have had the better signing year production than Brodie, but he also had lower career production, and lower ice time. That said, he was more valuable than Smith in terms of both production and ice time.

So it’s a bit difficult to tell where Graves lands within this range. While he could reach $5M, as he’d be projected to at other lengths, the comps aren’t necessarily definitively pointing to it.

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Projection

A four or five-year contract is by far the most likely length for Graves’ next deal.

Term	Projected Cap Hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
5 Years	$5.00M	$5.30M	$4.60M
4 Years	$4.75M	$5.25M	$4.50M

That said, a six-year deal is also possible.

Term	Projected Cap Hit	Maximum Cap Hit	Minimum Cap Hit
6 Years	$5.00M	$5.50M	$4.50M