What We Know

• Little is known about likelihood of whether Tatar will re-sign with the Devils.
• New Jersey does have quite a bit of cap space available, but also many other free agents to sign.

Comparables

Below, we take a look at what Tatar’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.

With Tatar turning 33 years old later this year, our comparables will focus on wingers with similar production, who were between 31 and 35 years old in the first year of their contract.

4 YEARS

Looking at the upper-end of what Tatar could get, a four-year deal or more at his age seems extremely unlikely.

Of the sample of wingers who did sign a four-year deal around Tatar’s age, each one had either better production in their signing year, better production over their career, or both. The projections would have Tatar between $4.5M and $6.5M on a four-year deal, which just seems unrealistic.

Perhaps someone makes a mistake and hands out a four-year deal at $4.5M per year or less, but it would be a poor decision.

3 YEARS

Even a three-year deal, while possible, is still somewhat unlikely.

Most comparable three-year deals would put Tatar between about $3.9M and a little over $5M. With a current $4.5M cap hit on a two-year deal though, it seems unlikely he’d maintain the same cap hit while getting an extra year, two years older than he was on his last contract.

A big point though is if you look up and down the table, most of the more recent contracts came in at the lower payment rates. So if Tatar did get a three-year deal, it would probably come in near a lot of the lower end of the projections. Dadonov, Eaves and Smith would all have Tatar right around $4M, and while a three-year contract remains unlikely, just below $4M would probably be the most realistic cap hit at that length of a deal.

2 YEARS

While other terms are possible another two-year deal for Tatar is most probable.

While there are some two-year deals which would have Tatar quite high or quite low, we can realistically define a range of about $3.65M from David Perron’s deal, to $5.15M for Antoine Vermette’s deal. Anything higher or lower would be quite unexpected.

There are quite a few contracts which would project Tatar up around $5M per year on a two-year deal, but the best indicator of what he could get is his last contract. Tatar is re-entering free agency with basically the exact same production as what led to his 2021 contract, just two years later. With the cap having barely risen since then and minimal risk on a two-year deal, chances are he could earn a contract at a similar price.

At the same time, if you look at the highest payment rates, they’re mostly centers, with the wingers coming in quite a bit cheaper. Considering Tatar’s production with the Devils was a bit lower as a whole than his tenure with the Canadians, we may see his cap hit a little lower on a two-year deal this time around.

1 YEAR

A one-year deal seems unlikely for Tatar. Looking at some of the more recent one-year deals around his age and production, they typically don’t carry a higher cap hit than a multi-year deal would have.

Perhaps the one scenario where Tatar takes a one-year deal is if he can get a higher cap hit, as was the case with Wayne Simmonds. In 2019, Simmonds got a one-year deal at $5M coming off somewhat of an unproductive season, where he almost certainly got a higher cap hit than he would’ve on a multi-year deal. While Tatar wouldn’t reach the $6.3M projection from the Simmonds deal, perhaps he’d be willing to go for a one-year deal if he could reach the $5M mark like Simmonds did.

It’s unlikely, but perhaps a weaker team would overpay him, then look to retain salary and flip him at the deadline for future assets.

Projection

A two-year deal is by far the most likely contract for Tatar, with only a slightly lower cap hit projected than his $4.5M x 2 contract in 2021.

That said, a slightly longer or shorter deal is always possible.