Entering free agency, Varlamov’s priorities could really dictate where he signs and what his deal could look like. There’s no doubt Varlamov is still capable of playing more than 25 or 30 games, and this occurring in New York was just due to the team benefitting from having one of the best goalies in the world as their starter.

Varlamov could remain in New York, but if he wanted a larger role (and likely more money), there are other teams around the league who could certainly use him in a larger capacity than the Islanders have recently.

What We Know

• Varlamov noted he does hope to remain with the Islanders.
• Pierre LeBrun said it wouldn’t surprise him if a two-year extension was reached for Varlamov.

Comparables

Below, we take a look at contract projections for different possible terms. For more information on the stats/tables used in the projection, visit the About the Site page.

Note: The comparables used are goalies who signed their contract at a similar age. All ages listed are related to how old the player was by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.

3 YEARS

It’s unlikely we’d see Varlamov reach a three-year deal, but goalies around the same age have managed to find one in recent years.

There are a few major factors to consider with this though. First Varlamov is already 35 years old, while most of the comparable goalies signing three-year deals were only 33 or 34 years old in their contract year. It may not seem like much, but once a player gets into their mid-30s, each year does count.

The other factor is that Varlamov played just 28 percent of his team’s games this past season, which is lower than any other comparable listed.

The only way it seems possible that Varlamov would get a three-year contract is if he took a very reduced price for it, likely at a lower cap hit than any other deal listed here.

2 YEARS

Two years could be the most likely term for Varlamov’s contract.

Again though, typically goalies who had such a minimal role in their signing year didn’t end up with a two-year deal above $2M. It’s also tough to compare him against goalies who signed their deal as a starter.

That said, we can get a bit more of a range between the contracts for Bernier, Allen, Greiss and Reimer, who all played less than 45 percent of their team’s game in their signing year.

Bernier’s $4.2M adjusted cap hit represents the upper range of what Varlamov could make, but that still seems highly unlikely. The signing year stats were about the same, but the discrepancy in games played should push Varlamov well below that range.

At the same time, Varlamov should be above Reimer’s $2.3M adjusted cap hit. Reimer also played under 40 percent of his team’s games, but did it with a much lower save percentage.

So the more realistic range is between about $2.3M and Allen’s $3.9M.

Varlamov did notably have better stats than Allen, but the same save percentage as Greiss. Again though, he played a far lower percentage of his team’s games in his signing year, so he shouldn’t be that to close $3.5M, as those contracts came in.

So chances are, Varlamov ends up between $2.5M and $3M on a two-year deal.

1 YEAR

Term on a contract should be important for Varlamov, given his age. That said, we don’t know how long he intends to continue playing, so a one-year contract is always possible.

Looking at the range of comparables, Smith signed both of his deals while quite a bit older and after a fairly poor season. So Varlamov’s range is likely Halak’s $2.3M adjusted cap hit or above.

Chances are though, if Varlamov is taking a one-year deal, it’s because it’ll come with a higher cap hit from a team other than the Islanders. He’s likely to be offered a two-year deal by someone, so it would probably take a higher cap hit, around $3M or more, for him to opt for that rather than a deal with more term. It’s possible a team could see him as a 1B goalie and pay him accordingly for one year, but a two-year deal still seems more likely.

Projection

Two years remains by far the most likely term for Varlamov’s next contract.

That said, a one-year deal or even a three-year deal remain possible as well.