Barbashev will be the most notable 2023 Cup-winning UFA on the market.
Player Overview
Originally selected 33rd overall by the St. Louis Blues in 2014, Ivan Barbashev made the jump to professional hockey in 2015. After spending the entire 2015-16 season in the AHL, the forward went on to split time between the NHL and AHL in the next two seasons.
By the 2018-19 season, Barbashev had earned a full-time NHL role, scoring 26 points in 80 games. He also went on to play in 25 of the team’s 26 playoff games that year, on route to a Stanley Cup win with the Blues.
However, it seemed as though he may end up destined to be a bottom-six winger. Across 187 games between three seasons from 2018-19 to 2020-21, Barbashev scored at an 82-game pace of just 28 points and averaged less than 13 minutes per game in ice time over that stretch.
This all changed during the 2021-22 season though, as Barbashev took a massive step offensively to score 26 goals and 60 points in 81 games. It was a huge change of pace, and marked the best season of his career by far.
While the forward couldn’t sustain that pace this season, he was able to score 29 points in 59 games with the Blues, which was still better than any season of his career, excluding 2021-22. With St. Louis clearly out of the playoff race though, Barbashev was dealt to the Vegas Golden Knights at the trade deadline, in exchange for 2021 first-round pick Zach Dean.
Things couldn’t have gone any better in his limited run with Vegas, with the forward scoring 16 points in 23 regular season games. Barbashev then followed that up with an excellent playoff run, on route to his second Stanley Cup. In the postseason, he scored seven goals and 18 points in 22 games as a member of the team’s top line, alongside Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault.
Entering free agency, Barbashev should draw quite a bit of interest. While can add offense and is a quality playmaker, he also plays a high-intensity game with a physical presence. Barbashev can be used as a center, but is likely a better fit on the wing.
What We Know
- Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that contract talks between Barbashev and the Golden Knights broke down before the playoffs.
- Barbashev was reportedly looking for an eight-year contract worth $5M per year.
Comparables
Below, we take a look at what Barbashev’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.
For the comparable contracts, we’ll be looking at wingers who were between 26 and 30 years old by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.
7 YEARS
With Barbashev unlikely to re-sign in Vegas, seven years would be the longest possible term for the forward. That said, when you at look at wingers around his age who typically get seven-year deals, Barbashev just isn’t the same caliber of player as the rest.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Ivan Barbashev | 28 | 2023 | 16-45 (82GP) | 16-37 (433GP) | 16-41 | ||||
| Anders Lee | 29 | 2019 | 28-51 (82GP) | 29-50 (425GP) | 29-51 | $7.00M 7 years | $7.17M 7 years | 1.41 | $5.76M 7 years |
| Artemi Panarin | 28 | 2019 | 29-90 (79GP) | 30-81 (322GP) | 30-86 | $11.64M years | $11.93M 7 years | 1.39 | $5.69M 7 years |
| Evander Kane | 27 | 2018 | 30-57 (78GP) | 27-51 (574GP) | 29-54 | $7.00M 7 years | $7.35M 7 years | 1.36 | $5.58M 7 years |
| Milan Lucic | 28 | 2016 | 20-56 (81GP) | 20-50 (647GP) | 20-53 | $6.00M 7 years | $6.86M 7 years | 1.29 | $5.31M 7 years |
| *Chris Kreider | 29 | 2020 | 33-62 (60GP) | 25-50 (520GP) | 38-56 | $6.50M 7 years | $6.66M 7 years | 1.19 | $4.88M 7 years |
| **Cam Atkinson | 29 | 2018 | 36-57 (97GP) | 26-48 (397GP) | 31-53 | $5.88M 7 years | $6.18M 7 years | 1.17 | $4.78M 7 years |
| Kevin Fiala | 26 | 2022 | 33-85 (82GP) | 24-55 (419GP) | 29-70 | $7.88M 7 years | $7.98M 7 years | 1.14 | $4.67M 7 years |
| Kyle Okposo | 28 | 2016 | 23-66 (79GP) | 22-57 (529GP) | 23-62 | $6.00M 7 years | $6.86M 7 years | 1.11 | $4.54M 7 years |
| Zach Hyman | 29 | 2021 | 29-63 (43GP) | 20-44 (345GP) | 25-54 | $5.50M 7 years | $5.63M 7 years | 1.04 | $4.27M 7 years |
| Johnny Gaudreau | 29 | 2022 | 40-115 (82GP) | 29-83 (602GP) | 35-99 | $9.75M 7 years | $9.87M 7 years | 1.00 | $4.09M 7 years |
** Deal signed early into season – stats from that year before signing, as well as previous year are combined for Signing Year stats
Looking at the sample of wingers above who signed seven-year deals, every single one had higher production in their signing year, as well as over their career. So while Barbashev may be seeking a seven-year deal, it seems extremely unlikely he’ll get one.
Perhaps there’d be a team willing to go that long if it meant keeping the cap hit down, perhaps around the $4.5M mark on the lower end of these projections. But again, it’s unlikely.
6 YEARS
Six years would be significant term for Barbashev as well, but it’s much more possible.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Ivan Barbashev | 28 | 2023 | 16-45 (82GP) | 16-37 (433GP) | 16-41 | ||||
| Charlie Coyle | 28 | 2020 | 13-37 (106GP) | 15-41 (525GP) | 14-39 | $5.25M 6 years | $5.38M 6 years | 1.38 | $5.65M 6 years |
| *Brendan Gallagher | 29 | 2021 | 33-54 (35GP) | 26-50 (582GP) | 30-52 | $6.50M 6 years | $6.66M 6 years | 1.28 | $5.25M 6 years |
| Blake Coleman | 30 | 2021 | 21-46 (55GP) | 19-34 (301GP) | 20-40 | $4.90M 6 years | $5.02M 6 years | 1.26 | $5.15M 6 years |
| Blake Wheeler | 27 | 2013 | 32-70 (48GP) | 21-51 (372GP) | 27-61 | $5.60M 6 years | $7.27M 6 years | 1.19 | $4.89M 6 years |
| Nick Foligno | 28 | 2015 | 41-77 (34GP) | 17-39 (500GP) | 29-58 | $5.50M 6 years | $6.43M 6 years | 1.11 | $4.55M 6 years |
| *Josh Bailey | 29 | 2018 | 21-88 (58GP) | 14-43 (697GP) | 18-66 | $5.00M 6 years | $5.25M 6 years | 0.80 | $3.26M 6 years |
| Bryan Rust | 30 | 2022 | 33-79 (60GP) | 24-52 (424GP) | 29-66 | $5.13M 6 years | $5.19M 6 years | 0.79 | $3.22M 6 years |
Most of the comps listed above were players who had higher production at the time of signing. That said, discounting the outliers with the Bailey and Rust contracts, which likely had a skewed payment rate based on a large contract year which would have Barbashev down around $3.25M per year, we can establish a possible projection range.
From Coyle’s contract to Foligno’s contract, we’d likely be looking at a range of $4.55M to $5.65M for a six-year deal. Coyle’s deal was a bit of an overpayment though, which should have Barbashev below that $5.65M projection.
To me though, by far the best comparable for a possible six-year contract would be Blake Coleman’s six-year deal with the Calgary Flames. Coleman was also fresh off two Stanley Cup wins and had incredibly similar production both in his signing year, and over his career.
So while six years would be a lot of term to give out, and Coleman’s deal arguably was high-priced, the deal acts as a very solid comparable to put Barbashev right around $5M per year on a six-year deal.
5 YEARS
Five years would be another one of the more likely outcomes for Barbashev’s deal.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Ivan Barbashev | 28 | 2023 | 16-45 (82GP) | 16-37 (433GP) | 16-41 | ||||
| *Jakob Silfverberg | 29 | 2019 | 23-35 (56GP) | 19-40 (475GP) | 21-38 | $5.25M 5 years | $5.38M 5 years | 1.42 | $5.80M 5 years |
| James van Riemsdyk | 29 | 2018 | 36-55 (81GP) | 27-53 (609GP) | 32-54 | $7.00M 5 years | $7.35M 5 years | 1.36 | $5.58M 5 years |
| Matt Beleskey | 27 | 2015 | 28-40 (65GP) | 14-28 (329GP) | 21-34 | $3.80M 5 years | $4.44M 5 years | 1.31 | $5.35M 5 years |
| Michael Frolik | 27 | 2015 | 19-42 (82GP) | 15-38 (512GP) | 17-40 | $4.30M 5 years | $5.03M 5 years | 1.26 | $5.16M 5 years |
| Artturi Lehkonen | 27 | 2022 | 21-42 (74GP) | 16-31 (412GP) | 19-37 | $4.50M 5 years | $4.55M 5 years | 1.23 | $5.04M 5 years |
| Reilly Smith | 26 | 2016 | 25-50 (82GP) | 18-43 (43GP) | 22-47 | $5.00M 5 years | $5.57M 5 years | 1.19 | $4.86M 5 years |
| Jordan Eberle | 29 | 2019 | 20-39 (78GP) | 26-59 (666GP) | 23-49 | $5.50M 5 years | $5.63M 5 years | 1.15 | $4.71M 5 years |
| Craig Smith | 26 | 2015 | 23-44 (82GP) | 19-43 (277GP) | 21-44 | 4.25M 5 years | 4.97M 5 years | 1.13 | $4.63M 5 years |
| Jaden Schwartz | 29 | 2021 | 16-43 (40GP) | 23-56 (560GP) | 20-50 | $5.50M 5 years | $5.63M 5 years | 1.13 | $4.62M 5 years |
| Jason Zucker | 26 | 2018 | 33-64 (82GP) | 24-43 (340GP) | 29-54 | $5.50M 5 years | $5.78M 5 years | 1.07 | $4.39M 5 years |
| Ondrej Palat | 26 | 2017 | 19-57 (75GP) | 20-58 (307GP) | 20-58 | $5.30M 5 years | $5.90M 5 years | 1.02 | $4.17M 5 years |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand | 26 | 2021 | 26-64 (49GP) | 22-48 (305GP) | 24-56 | $5.40M 5 years | $5.53M 5 years | 0.99 | $4.05M 5 years |
Through a sample of 12 comparables for a five-year deal, we know there would be a range of $4.05M on the low end and $5.80M on the high end.
That said, we get a bit more of a defined mark from the contracts in the middle of this range, with six projections all coming in between $4.62M and $5.16M. This should act as a clear range, with the Silfverberg, van Riemsdyk and Beleskey deals all acting as slight overpayments, and projections from the Zucker, Palat and Bjorkstrand deals likely coming in too low.
Within the $4.6M to $5.2M range, my guess would be Barbashev ends up on he higher end, coming off a Stanley Cup and standing out a bit in a weak free agent class.
A great comparable would be Arturri Lehkonen, who was almost the same age and was also coming off a Cup win. Lehkonen had fairly similar production and a very similar number of career games played. If you take Lehkonen’s payment rate and apply it to Barbashev’s slightly higher production, it would predict a $5.04M cap hit for Barbashev on a five-year deal.
So while it could possibly come in a bit higher or lower, $5M seems like the clear mark for a cap hit, as was the case with six-year deal.
4 YEARS
Considering it’s reported that Barbashev wants a seven-year deal, term would clearly be important for his next contract. As a result, a four-year deal is unlikely for Barbashev, as he can probably get a slightly longer deal in free agency. However, here are the comparables:
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Ivan Barbashev | 28 | 2023 | 16-45 (82GP) | 16-37 (433GP) | 16-41 | ||||
| Tomas Tatar | 27 | 2017 | 25-46 (82GP) | 24-46 (345GP) | 25-46 | $5.30M 4 years | $5.90M 4 years | 1.28 | $5.26M 4 years |
| Kyle Palmieri | 30 | 2021 | 16-34 (51GP) | 25-48 (612GP) | 21-41 | $5.00M 4 years | $5.12M 4 years | 1.25 | $5.12M 4 years |
| Carl Hagelin | 27 | 2015 | 17-35 (82GP) | 18-40 (266GP) | 18-38 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.68M 4 years | 1.23 | $5.05M 4 years |
| Adrian Kempe | 26 | 2022 | 37-57 (78GP) | 19-39 (390GP) | 28-48 | $5.50M 4 years | $5.57M 4 years | 1.16 | $4.76M 4 years |
| Joonas Donskoi | 27 | 2019 | 14-38 (80GP) | 13-35 (283GP) | 14-37 | $3.90M 4 years | $4.00M 4 years | 1.08 | $4.43M 4 years |
| Mike Hoffman | 27 | 2016 | 30-62 (78GP) | 26-50 (186GP) | 28-56 | $5.19M 4 years | $5.94M 4 years | 1.06 | $4.35M 4 years |
| Mathieu Perreault | 29 | 2017 | 10-47 (71GP) | 18-41 (361GP) | 18-44 | $4.13M 4 years | $4.60M 4 years | 1.05 | $4.28M 4 years |
| *Mats Zuccarello | 28 | 2015 | 16-51 (60GP) | 17-52 (204GP) | 17-52 | $4.50M 4 years | $5.26M 4 years | 1.01 | $4.15M 4 years |
| Gustav Nyquist | 30 | 2019 | 22-61 (81GP) | 21-50 (500GP) | 22-56 | $5.50M 4 years | $5.63M 4 years | 1.01 | $4.12M 4 years |
| Mikkel Boedker | 27 | 2016 | 17-52 (80GP) | 15-40 (463GP) | 16-46 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.58M 4 years | 1.00 | $4.08M 4 years |
| Taylor Hall | 30 | 2021 | 15-51 (53GP) | 27-72 (680GP) | 21-62 | $6.00M 4 years | $6.15M 4 years | 0.99 | $4.07M 4 years |
| Pavel Buchnevich | 26 | 2021 | 30-73 (54GP) | 22-53 (301GP) | 26-63 | $5.80M 4 years | $5.94M 4 years | 0.94 | $3.87M 4 years |
| Brett Connolly | 27 | 2019 | 22-47 (81GP) | 15-30 (427GP) | 19-39 | $3.50M 4 years | $3.61M 4 years | 0.93 | $3.80M 4 years |
| Anthony Mantha | 26 | 2020 | 31-72 (43GP) | 26-55 (260GP) | 29-64 | $5.70M 4 years | $5.84M 4 years | 0.91 | $3.74M 4 years |
| Micheal Ferland | 27 | 2019 | 20-46 (71GP) | 15-33 (321GP) | 18-40 | $3.50M 4 years | $3.61M 4 years | 0.90 | $3.70M 4 years |
| *Alex Iafallo | 28 | 2021 | 23-53 (40GP) | 16-39 (267GP) | 20-46 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.10M 4 years | 0.89 | $3.65M 4 years |
| Tyler Toffoli | 28 | 2020 | 29-53 (68GP) | 23-47 (525GP) | 26-50 | $4.25M 4 years | $4.35M 4 years | 0.87 | $3.57M 4 years |
Again, taking a four-year deal doesn’t make much sense for Barbashev. It would mean he’s re-entering free agency at 32 years old, so if he has a chance to get term now, he should take it.
Plus, based on comparables, there’s essentially no upside to taking four years instead of five or six years, as most projections for a four-year deal would have him below $5M.
Projection
So to conclude, a five or six-year deal is the most likely term for Barbashev’s next deal.
| Term | Projected Cap Hit | Maximum | Minimum |
| 5 Years | $5.00M | $5.50M | $4.50M |
| 6 Years | $5.00M | $5.50M | $4.50M |
However, it’s possible (though unlikely) we could see it come in slightly shorter or longer.
| Term | Projected Cap Hit | Maximum | Minimum |
| 4 Years | $4.50M | $5.25M | $4.00M |
| 7 Years | $4.50M | $5.50M | $4.00M |
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