Dumoulin should really only be counted on as a 4/5 defender in a strong defense group, but with a weak free agent class, he should still command some interest.

What We Know

• Dumoulin did seemingly want to remain with the Penguins, noting it would be ‘hard to leave’

Comparables

Below, we take a look at possible contract projections for different possible terms. For more information on the stats/tables used in the projection, visit the About the Site page.

Note: The comparables used are defensemen who signed their contract at a similar age. All ages listed are related to how old the player was by Dec. 31 in the first year of their contract.

4 YEARS

Given he’ll be 32 years old by the time the season begins, it’s unlikely Dumoulin will get a four-year deal. Looking at defensemen between 30 and 34 years old who’ve signed four-year deals recently, typically, the cut off is 31 years old in the first year of their deal. Jeff Petry and Mattias Ekholm are the only defenders listed above 31 years old who did get four years, and each played a much larger role with their respective team at the time of signing.

If Dumoulin did find a four-year contract, we know it’s coming in at $4.5M or less, based on the comparables listed. He’s not going to be making as much as the likes of Petry, Ekholm, Muzzin, Brodie or Chiarot, who all had better production and higher usage. With Chris Tanev well-known as a top shutdown defenseman and Josh Manson recently coming off a Stanley Cup win as well, Dumoulin really shouldn’t be in the $4.5M range either.

That said, Dumoulin does compare well with the $4M projections from Gudbranson, Leddy and Dillon, based on production and usage. Again though, the difference is Gudbranson and Dillon were each two years younger in the first year of their deal and while Leddy was only one year younger, he had both better production and more ice time than Dumoulin.

So while Dumoulin should be above $3.5M based on Savard and Scandella each having lower production and usage, his age is a solid reason for him to be below $4M. The only way a four-year deal really makes sense is if he took a reduced cap hit to get the extra year. So with that, around $3.5M may actually be the most likely cap hit.

There aren’t a ton of high-end defensemen available in free agency, so maybe someone offers him a four-year deal. Again though, it’s highly unlikely.

3 YEARS

Three years is the most likely length for Dumoulin’s deal.

We can assume based on the difference in production and/or usage, Dumoulin isn’t in a range of $4.5M or more, like the contracts for Stralman, Martinez and Barrie.

That said, he should still be well above the Rutta, Gudas, McNabb and van Riemsdyk contracts for the the same reasons.

The most comparables deals would be those from Nick Jensen, Kevin Shattenkirk and Trevor Daley, resulting in a range of $3.5M to about $4.1M for a projection.

It’s a little difficult to tell exactly where Dumoulin would fall within this range, but Daley and Jensen did have the more similar production and usage. Daley was two years older than Dumoulin at the time of signing though, which would indicate Dumoulin should arguably get the higher cap hit on a deal with term, given it carries less risk.

Dumoulin could hit $4M on a three-year deal, especially based on Jensen’s deal – and if he doesn’t, he’s likely to get pretty close.

2 YEARS

There’s the chance that teams see Dumoulin’s decline and don’t even want to give out a three-year deal. If so, two years then becomes the likely term, as he should command more than a single year.

Dumoulin should be roughly in the same range on a two-year deal as he would be on a three-year deal.

His deal should come in far higher than any of Hamonic, Schultz (2022), Kulikov and Holden, and the closer comparables would be Oduya, Hamhuis and Schultz (2020), from a range of $4.1M to $4.4M.

I think there’s a chance Dumoulin would be more valuable on a two-year deal than a three-year deal, given the reduced risk. As a result, we could see him a little higher than $4M on a two-year deal, as the comparables would project.

Projection

With Dumoulin starting to decline, it seems like he’s destined for a two or three-year deal, likely right around his current $4.1M cap hit.

While two or three years is the most likely term, four years isn’t completely out of the realm of possibility either, but should come at a reduced cap hit.