Tarasenko is set to become a UFA for the first time, but how much could the 2019 Stanley Cup champion make?
Player Overview
A 2010 first-round pick, it took until Tarasenko was entering his mid-20s before he really started to establish himself as a star with the St. Louis Blues. Tarasenko possess excellent puck control and agility to make moves on a rush to get past defenders, along with great accuracy on his shot. For five years rom the 2014-2015 season until 2018-19, Tarasenko was incredibly consistent production-wise, hovering around an 82-game pace of 35-40 goals and 70-75 points in each season.
In 2019, Tarasenko helped the Blues capture their first Stanley Cup in franchise history, scoring 11 goals in the playoff run. Following the Cup win though, Tarasenko suffered with signifiant injury issues, being held to just 34 regular season games between the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons combined.
The winger made waves in the summer of 2021, when it became known he had requested a trade from the St. Louis Blues. The basis of the request came from the team’s handling of his multiple shoulder surgeries over those previous years.
Despite the trade request though, Tarasenko remained the the Blues heading into the 2021-22 season and managed to put together the best season of his career offensively, managing 34 goals and 82 points in 75 games. The bounce-back year silenced concerns that he wouldn’t be the same player following his injury trouble.
Tarasenko did take a step back this season with the Blues though, before finally being traded to the New York Rangers at the trade deadline.
The winger scored at an 82-game pace of just 59 points throughout the regular season, which was some of his lowest production in nearly a decade. That said, his shooting percentage was also down from his career average, showing he could be likely to bounce back (at least to an extent).
While this year may have been disappointing and does create some worry for a permanent decline, Tarasenko is still only turning 32 years old this year and can provide an impact for the next few seasons. He’s only a year removed from scoring at a pace of 35 goals and 90 points per 82. His value may be lower than it was a year ago, but Tarasenko should still generate quite a bit of interest in free agency.
What We Know
- Tarasenko said he was never offered a contract extension by the Blues before his trade.
- Elliotte Friedman suggested on 32 Thoughts that the Chicago Blackhawks could look to sign Tarasenko to a short-term deal, to play with Connor Bedard.
- With other free agents in need of contracts as well, it would be difficult for the Rangers to re-sign Tarasenko.
Comparables
Below, we take a look at what Tarasenko’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.
With Tarasenko turning 32 years old later this year, our comparables will focus on wingers with similar production, who were between 30 and 34 years old in the first year of their contract.
6/7 YEARS
For starters, it’s very unlikely Tarasenko gets a deal that’s six years or longer. That said, we have seen wingers around the same age get that long of a deal.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Vladimir Tarasenko | 32 | 2023 | 21-59 (53GP) | 33-70 (991GP) | 27-65 | ||||
| T.J. Oshie | 31 | 2017 | 40-68 (68GP) | 23-58 (591GP) | 32-63 | $5.75M 8 years | $6.40M 8 years | 1.02 | $6.60M 8 years |
| Andrew Ladd | 31 | 2016 | 26-48 (78GP) | 22-50 (469GP) | 24-49 | $5.50M 7 years | $6.29M 7 years | 1.28 | $8.34M 7 years |
| Marian Gaborik | 32 | 2014 | 23-60 (41GP) | 35-71 (810GP) | 29-66 | $4.88M 7 years | $5.91M 7 years | 0.90 | $5.82M 7 years |
| Loui Eriksson | 31 | 2016 | 30-63 (82GP) | 24-57 (725GP) | 27-59 | $6.00M 6 years | $6.86M 6 years | 1.16 | $7.56M 6 years |
I also don’t think these comparables project an overly realistic cap hit, if the deal actually was 6+ years. At six years or more, Tarasenko would almost surely see a reduced cap hit, given the extra risk that comes with a longer contract.
Of the comparables, this is only really represented by Gaborik’s deal, who took a fairly reasonable cap hit in order to get the security of seven years as a result. Again, I won’t project a deal at six years or longer, but if we did see one, it’s likely coming in quite a bit cheaper than any deal at five years or shorter, potentially in the $5M to $6M range.
5 YEARS
Five years is where things start to get more realistic, with a good number of wingers around Tarasenko’s age and production signing five-year deals in the past.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Vladimir Tarasenko | 32 | 2023 | 21-59 (53GP) | 33-70 (991GP) | 27-65 | ||||
| David Backes | 32 | 2016 | 22-47 (79GP) | 23-52 (727GP) | 23-50 | $6.00M 5 years | $6.86M 5 years | 1.37 | $8.92M 5 years |
| Alexander Radulov | 31 | 2017 | 19-58 (76GP) | 23-56 (230GP) | 21-57 | $6.25M 5 years | $6.96M 5 years | 1.22 | $7.94M 5 years |
| Ondrej Palat | 31 | 2022 | 19-52 (77GP) | 19-55 (628GP) | 19-54 | $6.00M 5 years | $6.07M 5 years | 1.12 | $7.31M 5 years |
| James Neal | 31 | 2018 | 29-51 (71GP) | 31-58 (703GP) | 30-55 | $5.75M 5 years | $6.05M 5 years | 1.10 | $7.15M 5 years |
| *Patric Hornqvist | 31 | 2018 | 27-51 (51GP) | 25-51 (630GP) | 26-51 | $5.30M 5 years | $5.57M 3 years | 1.09 | $7.10M 5 years |
| Jason Pominville | 32 | 2014 | 24-59 (47GP) | 26-65 (588GP) | 25-62 | $5.60M 5 years | $6.78M 5 years | 1.09 | $7.10M 5 years |
| Blake Wheeler | 33 | 2019 | 23-92 (81GP) | 23-64 (778GP) | 23-78 | $8.25M 5 years | $8.45M 5 years | 1.08 | $7.04M 5 years |
| Matt Moulson | 31 | 2014 | 25-56 (75GP) | 29-57 (397GP) | 27-57 | $5.00M 5 years | $6.03M 5 years | 1.06 | $6.88M 3 years |
| Mike Cammalleri | 32 | 2014 | 34-59 (63GP) | 29-62 (669GP) | 32-61 | $5.00M 5 years | $6.03M 5 years | 0.99 | $6.43M 5 years |
| Mats Zuccarello | 32 | 2019 | 21-68 (48GP) | 18-57 (511GP) | 20-63 | $6.00M 5 years | $6.15M 5 years | 0.98 | $6.35M 5 years |
We also get a very defined range for what to expect from a potential five-year contract from Tarasenko. While the projections from the Backes and Radulov deals would have Tarasenko around $8M to $9M, and the Cammalleri and Zuccarello deals would both put Tarasenko around $6.4M, six of the 10 comparables used would project a five-year deal for Tarasenko to land between $6.9M and $7.3M.
Tarasenko had similar or higher production than just about every comparable listed, so there’s certainly reason to think he could command a five-year deal a well. To be fair, a lot of these deals were signed a while ago, and you could argue teams have shifted way from giving out term to aging payers, based on how they normally turn out.
At the same time though, with so many deals all projecting a very similar price for Tarasenko’s contract on a five-year deal, $7M would be the expected cap hit.
4 YEARS
Four years would be another strong possibility for Tarasenko.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Vladimir Tarasenko | 32 | 2023 | 21-59 (53GP) | 33-70 (991GP) | 27-65 | ||||
| Max Pacioretty | 31 | 2019 | 22-47 (64GP) | 30-59 (626GP) | 26-53 | $7.00M 4 years | $7.17M 4 years | 1.35 | $8.79M 4 years |
| Kyle Palmieri | 30 | 2021 | 16-34 (51GP) | 25-48 (612GP) | 21-41 | $5.00M 4 years | $5.12M 4 years | 1.25 | $8.12M 4 years |
| Daniel Sedin | 34 | 2014 | 25-73 (63GP) | 27-69 (922GP) | 26-71 | $7.00M 4 years | $8.47M 4 years | 1.19 | $7.75M 4 years |
| Alexander Steen | 33 | 2017 | 21-64 (67GP) | 22-53 (746GP) | 22-59 | $5.75M 4 years | $6.40M 4 years | 1.08 | $7.05M 4 years |
| Gustav Nyquist | 30 | 2019 | 22-61 (81GP) | 21-50 (500GP) | 22-56 | $5.50M 4 years | $5.63M 4 years | 1.01 | $6.53M 4 years |
| Pascal Dupuis | 34 | 2013 | 34-65 (48GP) | 28-38 (798GP) | 31-52 | $3.75M 4 years | $4.87M 4 years | 0.94 | $6.09M 4 years |
| Jussi Jokinen | 31 | 2014 | 21-58 (81GP) | 19-51 (606GP) | 20-55 | $4.50M 4 years | $4.84M 4 years | 0.88 | $5.72M 4 years |
| David Perron | 30 | 2018 | 19-77 (70GP) | 20-50 (722GP) | 20-64 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.20M 4 years | 0.66 | $4.27M 4 years |
Unlike with the five-year projections though, there’s a wider range of potential cap hits for a four-year deal, based on our sample of comparables. David Perron’s deal would project a contract as low as $4.3M, while Pacioretty’s contract would suggest it could be double that number, up around $8.8M.
Many of the more recent contracts project Tarasenko on the upper end of that range, with all of the deals starting in 2019 or later suggesting at least a $6.5M cap hit.
Both Pacioretty and Palmieri’s deals which project above an $8M cap hit are likely unrealistic, but they do also show that payment rate isn’t necessarily always impacted by a poor signing year, which would be good news for Tarasenko.
It’s a bit harder to nail down a projected cap hit on a four-year deal, based on the wide range of comparables. That said, my guess would be that it comes in pretty consistent to the five-year projections, still around a $7M cap hit.
3 YEARS
Three years is likely the shortest length we’d see for Tarasenko’s contract. He should warrant at least that long of a deal, and at his age, term will likely be an important enough factor to eliminate the possibility of a one or two-deal.
Given his injury history though, it’s certainly possible teams could be scared off from committing to the player for any longer than three years.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Vladimir Tarasenko | 32 | 2023 | 21-59 (53GP) | 33-70 (991GP) | 27-65 | ||||
| Tomas Vanek | 30 | 2014 | 28-71 (78GP) | 34-69 (663GP) | 31-70 | $6.50M 3 years | $7.87M 3 years | 1.12 | $7.31M 3 years |
| Ales Hemsky | 31 | 2014 | 14-47 (75GP) | 18-60 (672GP) | 16-54 | $4.00M 3 years | $4.84M 3 years | 0.90 | $5.83M 3 years |
| Evgenii Dadonov | 31 | 2020 | 30-56 (69GP) | 27-59 (280GP) | 29-58 | $5.00M 3 years | $5.12M 3 years | 0.88 | $5.74M 3 years |
| Mike Hoffman | 32 | 2021 | 34-70 (69GP) | 29-60 (493GP) | 32-65 | $4.50M 3 years | $4.61M 3 years | 0.71 | $4.61M 3 years |
Even with a limited sample size of comparables though, there’s a wide range of projections for a three-yer deal. Vanek’s payment rate would put Tarasenko as high as $7.3M per year, while Hoffman’s payment rate would mean a $4.6M cap hit for Tarasenko. Meanwhile, both Hemsky and Dadonov’s contracts project a deal in the range of roughly $5.8M.
While Hoffman and Dadonov are the most recent comps, which should hold some weight, I think there are reasons to separate the players a bit from Tarasenko. Hoffman was a fairly one-dimensional, offensive threat, while Dadonov had nowhere near the same sample size of production as Tarasenko, with about a quarter of the NHL experience at the time of signing. Meanwhile, Hemsky had seen a major drop in production for several years before signing his contract.
While Tarasenko is coming off a down year, he’s only a season removed from the most productive season of his entire career. So even though most comparables have him below a $6M cap hit, my guess would be his deal comes in closer to Vanek’s projection. I also just can’t see a team paying less on a three-year deal than a four or five-year deal. Minimal risk with less term for a player Tarasenko’s age would typically be more appealing, resulting in a higher cap hit.
So while there are comparables to suggest otherwise, I’m betting a three-year deal for Tarasenko comes in around $7M.
Projection
Somewhere between three and five years certainly seems like the most likely scenario for Tarasenko. He’ll likely want some stability with his next deal given his age, and teams should be willing to offer at least three years, if not more.
While oftentimes a player around Tarasenko’s age would get a lower cap hit the longer their deal goes, and this could still be the case for the winger, the comparables do seem to project a pretty defined range of around $7M on any of a three, four or five-year deal. It’ll just be a matter of how long of a contract teams are willing to offer the forward within that range.
It’s more likely we’d see a cap hit come in lower as opposed to higher, but a 3-5 year-deal should put Tarasenko around $7M per year.
| Term | Projected Cap Hit | Maximum | Minimum |
| 3 Years | $7.00M | $7.30M | $5.50M |
| 4/5 Years | $7.00M | $7.75M | $6.00M |
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