Was Jesper Bratt worth the price that it took to lock him up for eight years?
The New Jersey Devils extended one of their key free agents yesterday, signing forward Jesper Bratt to a monster eight-year contract. Bratt is 25 years old and his contract will carry a $7.88M cap hit.
A full no-move clause will kick in a year from now in 2024, before a 15-team no-trade list is introduced in 2028.
While all of our designated Top-50 Free Agents will get a projection article throughout June, Bratt signed his deal before the projection was released. So instead, we’ll take a look at comparable contracts to evaluate how the deal looks for the Devils, and whether it carries fair value.
Player Overview
Despite being just a sixth-round pick in the 2016 NHL Draft, Jesper Bratt made the jump to the NHL as a 19-year-old only one year after being selected.
In the years that followed, Bratt was a consistent producer, though normally scoring in the range of about 40-50 points per year. However, the winger took a massive step in the 2021-22 season, scoring 26 goals and 73 points in just 76 games, leading the team in points by a wide margin.
Bratt then signed a one-year contract last year to bet on himself, and it proved to be the right call. This season, Bratt scored 32 goals, the highest total of his career, and repeated his 72 points across a full 82 games.
A great skater with very good puck control and agility, Bratt is frequently able to carry the puck through traffic or get past a defender after an entry. While he isn’t the biggest player and his impact does really rely on his offensive production, he’s young and skilled enough to be a high-end, top-six winger for the forseeable future.
What We Know
- It was previously reported by Elliotte Friedman that the Devils preferred to have no forwards at a higher cap hit than Jack Hughes’ $8M.
- Bratt and the Devils were coming off a couple tough negotiations. The sides had held out until just days before the start of the 2021 season to agree to a new deal, then Bratt filed for arbitration last year, ending up with just a one-year contract. This marked the third contract signed between the sides in just two and a half years.
Comparables
Below, we take a look at comparables for different contract cap hits and lengths, and try to determine if Bratt’s deal was warranted.
8 YEARS
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Jesper Bratt | 25 | 2023 | 32-73 (82GP) | 22-58 (389GP) | 27-66 | ||||
| Jeff Skinner | 27 | 2019 | 40-63 (82GP) | 30-55 (661GP) | 35-59 | $9.00M 8 years | $9.22M 8 years | 1.56 | $10.31M 8 years |
| Patrick Kane | 27 | 2015 | 34-82 (69GP) | 28-78 (515GP) | 31-80 | $10.50M 8 years | $12.28M 8 years | 1.54 | $10.13M 8 years |
| Jakub Voracek | 27 | 2016 | 22-81 (82GP) | 19-57 (531GP) | 21-69 | $8.25M 8 years | $9.44M 8 years | 1.37 | $9.03M 8 years |
| Mark Stone | 27 | 2019 | 26-82 (64GP) | 28-70 (366GP) | 27-76 | $9.50M 8 years | $9.73M 8 years | 1.28 | $8.45M 8 years |
| Vladimir Tarasenko | 24 | 2015 | 39-78 (77GP) | 30-62 (179GP) | 35-70 | $7.50M 8 years | $8.77M 8 years | 1.25 | $8.27M 8 years |
| **Roope Hintz | 27 | 2023 | 36-77 (103GP) | 28-61 (261GP) | 31-69 | $8.45M 8 years | $8.45M 8 years | 1.22 | $8.08M 8 years |
| Valeri Nichushkin | 27 | 2022 | 30-69 (62GP) | 14-35 (405GP) | 22-52 | $6.13M 8 years | $6.20M 8 years | 1.19 | $7.87M 8 years |
| *David Pastrnak | 27 | 2023 | 58-112 (61GP) | 41-84 (571GP) | 50-98 | $11.25M 8 years | $11.25M 8 years | 1.15 | $7.58M 8 years |
| Jordan Kyrou | 25 | 2023 | 30-83 (74GP) | 22-58 (173GP) | 26-71 | $8.13M 8 years | $8.13M 8 years | 1.15 | $7.56M 8 years |
| Nikita Kucherov | 26 | 2019 | 40-103 (80GP) | 33-75 (365GP) | 37-89 | $9.50M 8 years | $9.73M 8 years | 1.09 | $7.22M 8 years |
| Matthew Tkachuk | 25 | 2022 | 42-104 (82GP) | 29-73 (431GP) | 36-89 | $9.50M 8 years | $9.62M 8 years | 1.08 | $7.13M 8 years |
** Deal signed early into season – stats from that year before signing, as well as previous year are combined for Signing Year stats
Of the 11 projections for eight-year deals from comparables listed above, Bratt’s $7.88M cap hit comes in lower than six of them, and right on track with another. Most comparables projected him coming in at $8M per year or more.
Plus, as I noted in the Alex DeBrincat projection: each of Pastrnak, Kucherov and Tkachuk had an 82-game pace of at least 100 points in their signing year, so it’s natural their payment rate could be lower, as their one really strong season wouldn’t affect their cap hit as much as it would skew the production mid point in the projection. So while projections from Kane and Skinner were unreasonably high, we also know the Pastrnak, Kucherov and Tkachuk projections from $7.13M to $7.58M were probably lower than they should’ve been.
Looking at the more realistic range of eight-year projections from Voracek to Kyrou, it seemed likely that Bratt would come in above $8M. My projection for an eight-year deal for Bratt would’ve been $8.25M.
So not only was an eight-year deal warranted, it arguably came in at a lower cap hit than expected.
While I try to keep most comparables similar in age, you can also reference it in relation to the recent Andrei Svechnikov and Cole Caufield deals around the same price.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Jesper Bratt | 25 | 2023 | 32-73 (82GP) | 22-58 (389GP) | 27-66 | ||||
| Andrei Svechnikov | 21 | 2022 | 22-63 (55GP) | 24-56 (205GP) | 23-60 | $7.75M 8 years | $7.94M 8 years | 1.32 | $8.73M 8 years |
| Cole Caufield | 22 | 2023 | 46-64 | 35-56 | 41-60 | $7.85M 8 years | $7.85M 8 years | 1.31 | $8.64M 8 years |
Both Svechnikov and Caufield’s deals came in basically at the same price, despite Bratt having the higher production. Based on the payment rate on those deals, Bratt’s deal could’ve came in above the $8.50M mark.
Essentially, Bratt’s deal is arguably below market value.
7 YEARS
It was unlikely that Bratt would take a seven-year deal rahter than eight years, but there are some comparables for it around his age.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Jesper Bratt | 25 | 2023 | 32-73 (82GP) | 22-58 (389GP) | 27-66 | ||||
| Evander Kane | 27 | 2018 | 30-57 (78GP) | 27-51 (574GP) | 29-54 | $7.00M 7 years | $7.35M 7 years | 1.36 | $8.98M 7 years |
| Kyle Connor | 23 | 2019 | 34-66 (82GP) | 31-59 (178GP) | 33-63 | $7.14M 7 years | $7.32M 7 years | 1.16 | $7.67M 7 years |
| Kevin Fiala | 26 | 2022 | 33-85 (82GP) | 24-55 (419GP) | 29-70 | $7.88M 7 years | $7.98M 7 years | 1.14 | $7.52M 7 years |
While Evander Kane was about to be a UFA at the time of signing, Kevin Fiala’s deal acts as a great comparable, signing for the exact same cap hit. While Fiala’s deal would project a cap hit of $7.52M instead of $7.88M for Bratt, suggesting a slight overpay, it’s key to remember that Bratt’s deal was a year longer. So while Fiala had the better production, Bratt’s extra year arguably evens it out.
As for the term itself though, there was pretty much no reason Bratt was ever going to sign a seven-year deal with the Devils. His production puts him in a threshold of players who can command a maximum-term deal, and there would’ve been no benefit to take a year less and re-enter free agency at 32 years old in 2030 instead of at 33 years old in 2031.
5/6 YEARS
There aren’t many realstic comparables for a player of Bratt’s age, production and experience taking a five or six-year deal, but I’ve listed a few past contracts below.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Jesper Bratt | 25 | 2023 | 32-73 (82GP) | 22-58 (389GP) | 27-66 | ||||
| Jonathan Huberdeau | 24 | 2017 | 22-64 (76GP) | 17-52 (272GP) | 20-58 | $5.90M 6 years | $6.56M 6 years | 1.13 | $7.46M 6 years |
| Teuvo Teravainen | 25 | 2019 | 17-67 (48GP) | 16-48 (326GP) | 17-58 | $5.40M 5 years | $5.53M 5 years | 0.95 | $6.29M 5 years |
| *Jake Guentzel | 25 | 2019 | 33-73 (37GP) | 27-59 (159GP) | 30-66 | $6.00M 5 years | $6.15M 5 years | 0.93 | $6.15M 5 years |
| Conor Garland | 25 | 2021 | 20-65 (49GP) | 24-48 (164GP) | 22-57 | $4.95M 5 years | $5.07M 5 years | 0.89 | $5.87M 5 years |
A five or six-year deal also woudln’t have made sense for Bratt. He’d still be needlessly re-entering free agency into his 30s, possibly unlikely to receive as high of a cap hit at that point.
If the Devils weren’t going to give him maximum term, someone else would have once he hit free agency.
3/4 YEARS
A three or four-year deal could’ve actually been a possibility for Bratt, even though it hasn’t been seen too often by a player of his caliber.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Jesper Bratt | 25 | 2023 | 32-73 (82GP) | 22-58 (389GP) | 27-66 | ||||
| Patrik Laine | 24 | 2022 | 38-82 (56GP) | 35-66 (407GP) | 37-74 | $8.70M 4 years | $8.81M 4 years | 1.19 | $7.86M 4 years |
| Pavel Buchnevich | 26 | 2021 | 30-73 (54GP) | 22-53 (301GP) | 26-63 | $5.80M 4 years | $5.94M 4 years | 0.94 | $6.22M 4 years |
| Anthony Mantha | 26 | 2020 | 31-72 (43GP) | 26-55 (260GP) | 29-64 | $5.70M 4 years | $5.84M 4 years | 0.91 | $6.02M 4 years |
| Sam Reinhart | 26 | 2021 | 38-61 (54GP) | 24-53 (454GP) | 31-57 | $6.50M 3 years | $6.66M 3 years | 1.17 | $7.71M 3 years |
| Brock Boeser | 25 | 2022 | 27-53 (71GP) | 31-65 (324GP) | 29-59 | $6.65M 3 years | $6.73M 3 years | 1.14 | $7.53M 3 years |
| Mikael Granlund | 25 | 2017 | 26-70 (81GP) | 15-51 (321GP) | 21-61 | $5.75M 3 years | $6.40M 3 years | 1.05 | $6.92M 3 years |
A three-year deal would’ve been projected between $6.92M and $7.71M based on comparables, though likely on the lower end, when factoring in the cap hit for an eight-year deal ending up just under $8M. If Bratt took a three-year deal (or even four, for that matter), he would’ve been able to hit the market in his late 20s as a UFA. There could’ve been logic to taking a well-priced three-year deal now, then cashing in on a larger deal later when he’s still young enough to get one. It’s not seen often and does carry risk, but it was a possibility.
1/2 YEARS
Perhaps the biggest concern for the Devils was Bratt wanting to get to unrestricted free agency as quickly as possible to test the market. If so, we could’ve seen him opt for a two-year deal or another one-year deal.
There aren’t many comparables for two year deals, but contracts for Tyler Bertuzzi and Andre Burakovsky do provide somewhat of a comparable.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Jesper Bratt | 25 | 2023 | 32-73 (82GP) | 22-58 (389GP) | 27-66 | ||||
| Andre Burakovsky | 25 | 2020 | 28-64 (58GP) | 17-40 (386GP) | 23-52 | $4.90M 2 years | $5.02M 2 years | 0.97 | $6.37M 2 years |
| **Tyler Bertuzzi | 26 | 2021 | 27-56 (80GP) | 21-50 (208GP) | 24-53 | $4.75M 2 years | $4.87M 2 years | 0.92 | $6.06M 2 years |
Then there was the possibility of another one-year deal. We know Bratt would’ve had a $5.45M qualifying offer and arbitration could’ve played a role too, with Bratt’s cap hit likely rising from last year.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Contract | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Jesper Bratt | 25 | 2023 | 32-73 (82GP) | 22-58 (389GP) | 27-66 | ||||
| Mark Stone | 26 | 2018 | 28-88 (58GP) | 25-67 (307GP) | 27-78 | $7.35M 1 year | $7.72M 1 year | 0.99 | $6.53M 1 year |
| Sam Reinhart | 25 | 2020 | 26-59 (69GP) | 22-52 (200GP) | 24-56 | $5.20M 1 year | $5.33M 1 year | 0.95 | $6.28M 1 year |
| Kevin Fiala | 25 | 2021 | 33-66 (50GP) | 22-48 (337GP) | 28-57 | $5.10M 1 year | $5.23M 1 year | 0.92 | $6.06M 1 year |
| Jesper Bratt | 24 | 2022 | 28-79 (76GP) | 19-54 (307GP) | 24-67 | $5.45M 1 year | $5.52M 1 year | 0.82 | $5.44M 1 year |
| Tyler Bertuzzi | 25 | 2020 | 24-55 (71GP) | 20-49 (199GP) | 22-52 | $3.50M 1 year | $3.59M 1 year | 0.69 | $4.56M 1 year |
With a few tough years of negotiations with Jesper Bratt, him ending up on another one-year deal was always possible. Based on comparbles, there would’ve been a good chance the deal would come in above $6M as well.
Final Analysis
Getting Bratt not just locked up long-term, but also doing it at a good price is a big win for the Devils.
Still just 25 years old, there’s minimal risk for the deal in terms of the player facing a decline, and Bratt likely could’ve gotten more in a couple years if he took a shorter deal before cashing in with UFA status later on. As mentioned, I would’ve had Bratt up around $8.25M per year on an eight-year deal, so $7.88M is good value.
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