With a trade seemingly on the horizon, what would it cost for an acquiring team to sign DeBrincat?

• Player Overview
• What We Know
• Comparables
• Projection

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Player Overview

Even before the NHL, Alex DeBrincat established himself as a high-end scorer in junior hockey with OHL’s Erie Otters. Through his three years with the club, during which he captured an OHL Championship and CHL Player of the Year honours, DeBrincat played on teams with the likes of Connor McDavid, Dylan Strome, Erik Cernak, Mason Marchment, Taylor Raddysh, Warren Foegele and other current NHLers. The winger scored 167 goals and 332 points across 191 career games with the Otters – and following the conclusion of his junior hockey career, he made the jump straight to the NHL.

DeBrincat’s offensive talent translated well right away, scoring 28 goals and 52 points with the Chicago Blackhawks in his rookie season in 2017-18. In his next four seasons with Chicago, DeBrincat went on to reach an 82-game pace of at least 40 goals and 75 points in three of them.

With the Blackhawks clearly entering a rebuild though, DeBrincat was traded to the Ottawa Senators last summer, for a package of assets which included the 2022 seventh-overall pick.

DeBrincat posted 27 goals and 66 points in 82 games with the Senators, and is now a pending restricted free agent. However, after just one year with Ottawa, the winger now seems set to be dealt once again.

It’s been widely reported that DeBrincat may not sign a long-term extension with the Senators. As a result, there’s a very good chance we see the 25-year-old dealt at some point this summer. With the winger still very young and able to boost scoring for just about any top-six group in the league, he’s set to command yet another sizeable return, along with a big contract.

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What We Know

• The Senators were reportedly willing to discuss an eight-year deal for DeBrincat, according to the Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch.
• Alex DeBrincat has reportedly provided the Senators with a list of preferred teams to be traded to, which is said to include the Carolina Hurricanes, Dallas Stars, Detroit Red Wings, Florida Panthers, Nashville Predators and Vegas Golden Knights.
• Senators general manger Pierre Dorion also reportedly talked about the possibility of going to arbitration and attempting to reduce the cap hit on a one-year deal by 15 per cent from his $9M qualifying offer.

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Comparables

Below, we take a look at a possible contract for DeBrincat. For more information on the stats/tables used below, inlcuding how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.

For the comparables, we’ll try to stick to wingers around DeBrincat’s age who had comparable production at the time of signing their contract.

8 YEARS

DeBrincat’s stats put his projected contract length at eight years.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Contract	On $83.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Alex DeBrincat	26	2023	27-66 (82GP)	34-68 (450GP)	31-67
Jeff Skinner	27	2019	40-63 (82GP)	30-55 (661GP)	35-59	$9.00M 8 years	$9.22M 8 years	1.56	$10.47M 8 years
Patrick Kane	27	2015	34-82 (69GP)	28-78 (515GP)	31-80	$10.50M 8 years	$12.28M 8 years	1.53	$10.28M 8 years
Jakub Voracek	27	2016	22-81 (82GP)	19-57 (531)	21-69	$8.25M 8 years	$9.44M 8 years	1.37	$9.16M 8 years
Jamie Benn	28	2017	41-89 (82GP)	31-72 (508GP)	36-81	$9.50M 8 years	$10.58M 8 years	1.31	$8.75M 8 years
Mark Stone	27	2019	26-82 (64GP)	28-70 (366GP)	27-76	$9.50M 8 years	$9.73M 8 years	1.28	$8.58M 8 years
Vladimir Tarasenko	24	2015	39-78 (77GP)	30-62 (179GP)	35-70	$7.50M 8 years	$8.77M 8 years	1.25	$8.40M 8 years
**Roope Hintz	27	2023	36-77 (103GP)	28-61 (261GP)	31-69	$8.45M 8 years	$8.45M 8 years	1.22	$8.21M 8 years
Valeri Nichushkin	27	2022	30-69 (62GP)	14-35 (405GP)	22-52	$6.13M 8 years	$6.20M 8 years	1.19	$7.99M 8 years
*David Pastrnak	27	2023	58-112 (61GP)	41-84 (571GP)	50-98	$11.25M 8 years	$11.25M 8 years	1.15	$7.69M 8 years
Nikita Kucherov	26	2019	40-103 (80GP)	33-75 (365GP)	37-89	$9.50M 8 years	$9.73M 8 years	1.09	$7.33M 8 years
Matthew Tkachuk	25	2022	42-104 (82GP)	29-73 (431GP)	36-89	$9.50M 8 years	$9.62M 8 years	1.08	$7.25M 8 years

In order to make an eight-year deal work with a new team though, DeBrincat would require a sign-and-trade with the Senators, which we have now seen twice over the last two years. If there was no sign-and-trade done, DeBrincat would only be eligible for a seven-year deal.

Based on the sample of comparables, the projections range from as low as $7.25M, all the way up to $10.5M per year. That said, 8 of 11 comparables put the projection at $8M or higher, and the only ones that come in lower were from contracts for Pastrnak, Kucherov and Tkachuk. Each of the three players had an 82-game pace of at least 100 points in their signing year, so it’s natural their payment rate could be lower, as their one really strong season wouldn’t affect their cap hit as much as it would skew the production mid point in the projection. So we can bet the minimum number for the deal would be $8M.

That said, of the 11 comparable projections, only three of them would have DeBrincat hitting the $9M mark. Even the Voracek projection is close at $9.16M, it’s just the outlier projections from Skinner and Kane that project the deal above $10M, which is unrealistic.

Of the projections between $8M and $9M, the closest comparables based on the production mid point would be Tarasenko and Hintz, which put the range around $8.2M and $8.4M.

Something else to be considered when establishing a range between $8M and $9M is looking at some recent contracts signed by centers with pending UFA status. Each of Tomas Hertl, Mika Zibanejad and Dylan Larkin had a very similar production mid point to DeBrincat, and those contracts would project a range of $8.33M to $9.05M.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Contract	On $83.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Alex DeBrincat	26	2023	27-66 (82GP)	34-68 (450GP)	31-67
*Tomas Hertl	29	2022	35-67 (59GP)	26-54 (562GP)	31-61	$8.14M 8 years	$8.24M 8 years	1.35	$9.05M 8 years
Mika Zibanejad	29	2022	35-73 (56GP)	27-59 (604GP)	31-66	$8.50M 8 years	$8.60M 3 years	1.30	$8.73M 8 years
*Dylan Larkin	27	2023	31-79 (59GP)	25-60 (563GP)	28-70	$8.70M 8 years	$8.70M 8 years	1.24	$8.33M 8 years

That said, generally speaking, a UFA center would be in line to make more than an RFA winger. Zibanejad and Hertl’s contracts both project a deal of at least $8.75M, and while Larkin’s deal could maybe just be viewed as a slight discount in comparison, it’s tough to say DeBrincat should be up around the same payment rate as two UFA centers (with more games played). While DeBrincat could get close, we can expect it wouldn’t be that same range.

So while a lot of projections do put DeBrincat above $8M, it’s also very difficult to justify that he should be up around $8.75M or more, as comparable deals for Hertl and Zibanejad would project.

The most realistic range for a cap hit on an eight-year deal is likely between $8.25M and $8.50M.

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7 YEARS

There are also some examples of comparables for a seven-year deal, in the case there was no sign-and-trade arranged.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Contract	On $83.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Alex DeBrincat	26	2023	27-66 (82GP)	34-68 (450GP)	31-67
Artemi Panarin	28	2019	29-90 (79GP)	30-81 (322GP)	30-86	$11.64M years	$11.93M 7 years	1.39	$9.29M 7 years
Evander Kane	27	2018	30-57 (78GP)	27-51 (574GP)	29-54	$7.00M 7 years	$7.35M 7 years	1.36	$9.12M 7 years
Milan Lucic	28	2016	20-56 (81GP)	20-50 (647GP)	20-53	$6.00M 7 years	$6.86M 7 years	1.29	$8.67M 7 years
Kevin Fiala	26	2022	33-85 (82GP)	24-55 (419GP)	29-70	$7.88M 7 years	$7.98M 7 years	1.14	$7.63M 7 years
Kyle Okposo	28	2016	23-66 (79GP)	22-57 (529GP)	23-62	$6.00M 7 years	$6.86M 7 years	1.11	$7.41M 7 years

While a lot of the seven-year projections are putting DeBrincat up around $9M per year, you could argue they aren’t overly realistic. If DeBrincat isn’t getting $9M on an eight-year deal, he probably isn’t getting it on a seven deal either.

More importantly, four of the five comparables above were hitting UFA status at the time of signing. The one exception though was Kevin Fiala.

Notably, Fiala also had a very similar production mid point (between signing season and career) to that of DeBrincat, before signing his deal at the same age. So while it’s unlikely we’d see seven years for a deal rather than eight years, Fiala’s contract for around $8M per year is by far the best projection.

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5/6 YEARS

It wouldn’t make a ton of sense for DeBrincat to take a five or six-year deal, and we don’t see it often for a player of his caliber. That said, there are a couple of comparables for it.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Contract	On $83.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Alex DeBrincat	26	2023	27-66 (82GP)	34-68 (450GP)	31-67
Jonathan Huberdeau	24	2017	22-64 (76GP)	17-52 (272GP)	20-58	$5.90M 6 years	$6.56M 6 years	1.13	$7.58M 6 years
Teuvo Teravainen	25	2019	17-67 (48GP)	16-48 (326GP)	17-58	$5.40M 5 years	$5.53M 5 years	0.95	$6.39M 5 years
*Jake Guentzel	25	2019	33-73 (37GP)	27-59 (159GP)	30-66	$6.00M 5 years	$6.15M 5 years	0.93	$6.24M 5 years

A seven or eight-year deal is most likely, but if DeBrincat doesn’t opt for it, it makes more sense to go for a three-year deal, then re-enter free agency at 29 years old. There’s some logic to it, which we’ll get into below. But taking a five or six-year deal and becoming a free agent again at 31 or 32 years old doesn’t have many benefits. At that point, it would just be best to take the seven or eight-year deal that will almost surely be offered.

With the wingers above who did take five or six-year deals, they either had lower production than DeBrincat, less experience, or both, meaning there was justification for a team wanting to go shorter term. DeBrincat is too productive of a player to be in a position where he’s only offered a five or six-year deal at his age.

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3/4 YEARS

While a five or six-year deal is unlikely, so is a three or four-year deal. The difference is, there could be justification for a three or four-year deal.

Player	Age	First Year of Contract	Signing Year G&P/82	Career G&P/82	Mid Point	Contract	On $83.5M Cap	Payment Rate	Projection
Alex DeBrincat	26	2023	27-66 (82GP)	34-68 (450GP)	31-67
Patrik Laine	24	2022	38-82 (56GP)	35-66 (407GP)	37-74	$8.70M 4 years	$8.81M 4 years	1.19	$7.97M 4 years
Pavel Buchnevich	26	2021	30-73 (54GP)	22-53 (301GP)	26-63	$5.80M 4 years	$5.94M 4 years	0.94	$6.32M 4 years
Anthony Mantha	26	2020	31-72 (43GP)	26-55 (260GP)	29-64	$5.70M 4 years	$5.84M 4 years	0.91	$6.11M 4 years
Sam Reinhart	26	2021	38-61 (54GP)	24-53 (454GP)	31-57	$6.50M 3 years	$6.66M 3 years	1.17	$7.83M 3 years
Brock Boeser	25	2022	27-53 (71GP)	31-65 (324GP)	29-59	$6.65M 3 years	$6.73M 3 years	1.14	$7.64M 3 years
Mikael Granlund	25	2017	26-70 (81GP)	15-51 (321GP)	21-61	$5.75M 3 years	$6.40M 3 years	1.05	$7.03M 3 years

The comparables for four-year deals would project a range from about $6M to $8M, while the comparables for a three-year deal would project a more specific $7M to $7.8M range.

If DeBrincat could get something in the range of a $7.5M cap hit for three years, it could make sense to take it, then re-enter free agency when he’s still in his 20s in 2026 and look to sign his high-priced, long-term contract then. If it worked out, he’d make more than if he signed an eight-year deal now, then takes whatever contract he gets when he’s in his mid-30s and re-enters free agency in 2031.

Again, it’s arguably an unnecessary risk and only a few times have we seen a player even close to DeBrincat’s value take a three-year deal at his age. But while it’s very unlikely, it’s always possible.

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1/2 YEARS

I don’t know of a time where a player with both DeBrincat’s production levels and games played count took a two-year deal nearing free agency. It would give DeBrincat the opportunity to test free agency in 2025 while still just 27 years old, but there’s pretty much no comparable for this, so we won’t be projecting it.

However, there is a scenario where the Senators don’t trade DeBrincat and just bring him back on a one-year deal. No comparables would be needed for this: we can just go off his $9M qualifying offer.

Arbitration is a factor though, and as stated above, Ottawa could attempt to get a lower cap hit on a one-year deal than the qualifying offer. It’s significantly more likely that Ottawa just moves DeBrincat and he signs long-term wherever he’s dealt, but it’s always a possibility.

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Projection

Seven or eight years remains by far the most likely term for DeBrincat, depending on whether we see a sign-and-trade or not.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum	Minimum
8 Years	$8.50M	$9.00M	$8.00M
7 Years	$8.00M	$9.00M	$7.00M

While other terms are very unlikely, projections for shorter contracts are listed below as well.

Term	Projected Cap hit	Maximum	Minimum
3 Years	$7.50M	$8.00M	$7.00M
1 Year	$9.00M	–	–