Patrick Kane’s injury and disappointing season leave questions about his next deal.
Note: This article is specific to a projection for Patrick Kane’s 2023 contract. A 2024 contract projection can be viewed here.
Player Overview
After 15 seasons with the Chicago Blackhawks, Patrick Kane’s time with the organization came to an end this year. Following three Stanley Cups, a Conn Smythe Trophy, an Art Ross Trophy, a Hart Trophy, a Ted Lindsay Award, and a Calder Trophy all won throughout his tenure with the Blackhawks, Kane was dealt to the New York Rangers at the trade deadline.
Kane was a decent addition for the Rangers, but wasn’t necessarily the difference-maker the team needed. In fact, following four straight years averaging more than a point per game, the 2022-23 season marked the worst offensive season of the winger’s entire career. Kane managed 21 goals and 57 points in 73 games, an 82-game pace of just 64 points.
It was well-known that Kane was dealing with a fairly major hip injury throughout the season, which undoubtedly affected his performance. Kane recently underwent a hip resurfacing surgery, and the expected timeline for recovery is 4-6 months.
At his best, Kane has some of the best hands and puck control in the game and his playmaking ability makes him a huge threat in the offensive zone. While he won’t go into battles with much intensity and doesn’t provide a whole lot defensively, his offensive impact is enough to offset the flaws in his game.
With the surgery, it’s certainly possible Kane could return to form. There was no track record of a decline prior to this past season, and if Kane bounces back, he could immediately help just about any team around the league.
What We Know
- Elliotte Friedman noted a one-year deal for Kane could be likely.
- Based on the Rangers’ cap situation, it would be difficult to bring back Kane, without moving out other salary or Kane taking a discount to stay in New York.
Comparables
Below, we look at what Patrick Kane’s contract could look like at different lenghts. Given the lack of players at Kane’s age with his production, both centers and wingers will be used in the projections.
For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.
5 YEARS
Five years is incredibly unlikely for Kane, but it’s the longest possible term that we actually have a comparable contract for.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Patrick Kane | 35 | 2023 | 24-64 (73GP) | 31-86 (1180GP) | 28-75 | ||||
| Alex Ovechkin | 36 | 2021 | 44-77 (45GP) | 50-90 (1197GP) | 47-84 | $9.50M 5 years | $9.73M 5 years | 1.16 | $8.69M 5 years |
While Ovechkin does act as a recent comparable around the same age and production level, he’s also managed to avoid a decline and stay healthy as he gets into his late 30s. Kane, on the other hand, is coming off the least productive season of his entire career and major injury. If Kane had managed to put together another strong year last season, I think a projection around $8.5M on a five-year deal was actually somewhat possible. Now though, it’s far too big of a gamble for any team to take.
4 YEARS
While five years almost surely isn’t happening, there’s a small chance we could see Kane able to get a four-year contract from someone in free agency.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Patrick Kane | 35 | 2023 | 24-64 (73GP) | 31-86 (1180GP) | 28-75 | ||||
| **Daniel Sedin | 34 | 2014 | 25-73 (63GP) | 27-69 (922GP) | 26-71 | $7.00M 4 years | $8.47M 4 years | 1.19 | $8.93M 4 years |
| ***Henrik Sedin | 34 | 2014 | 18-82 (64GP) | 16-70 (956GP) | 17-76 | $7.00M 4 years | $8.47M 4 years | 1.11 | $8.33M 4 years |
| Pascal Dupuis | 34 | 2013 | 34-65 (48GP) | 18-38 (798GP) | 26-52 | $3.75M 4 years | $4.87M 4 years | 0.94 | $7.02M 4 years |
| ***Evgeni Malkin | 36 | 2022 | 40-84 (41GP) | 37-96 (981GP) | 39-90 | $6.10M 4 years | $6.17M 4 years | 0.69 | $5.14M 4 years |
***Center
Once players get to an age like 35, it becomes very difficult to actually project a contract. It’s simply based on players having different priorities. It could be a matter of getting the most money possible, a chance to win, a preferable location, or a combination of all of them. Depending on what the priority is, that could factor into a player’s decision in a significant way, especially at Kane’s age.
The range of comparables above is significant, with a four-year deal projection going anywhere from about $5M, up to $9M. While it would be unlikely Kane goes as low as $5M, or as high as $9M, a different priority could make all the difference.
If Kane wants one last big contract, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him hit $7M or more on a four-year deal. Last year, Evgeni Malkin signed a four-year deal at more than $6M despite playing only half the season due to injuries and taking a huge discount to stay in Pittsburgh. So if Kane wants money, someone may be offering him a $7M per year deal or even more over four years.
However, if the priority is winning, we probably don’t see this deal. Chances are a true contending team won’t take the risk of a four-year deal at a high number.
3 YEARS
Three years could be the most likely term we see for Kane, if he does wish to continue playing for a while.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Patrick Kane | 35 | 2023 | 24-64 (73GP) | 31-86 (1180GP) | 28-75 | ||||
| Patrick Marleau | 38 | 2017 | 27-46 (82GP) | 28-59 (1493GP) | 28-53 | $6.25M 3 years | $6.96M 3 years | 1.31 | $9.85M 3 years |
| ***Paul Stastny | 34 | 2018 | 22-50 (66GP) | 23-66 (742GP) | 23-58 | $6.50M 3 years | $6.83M 3 years | 1.18 | $8.85M 3 years |
| ***Pavel Datsyuk | 36 | 2014 | 26-85 (47GP) | 27-81 (779GP) | 27-83 | $7.50M 3 years | $9.08M 3 years | 1.09 | $8.20M 3 years |
| Patrik Elias | 37 | 2013 | 24-62 (48GP) | 28-70 (1090GP) | 26-66 | $5.50M 3 years | $7.14M 3 years | 1.08 | $8.12M 3 years |
| ***Joe Pavelski | 35 | 2019 | 42-70 (76GP) | 30-65 (963GP) | 36-68 | $7.00M 3 years | $7.17M 3 years | 1.05 | $7.88M 3 years |
| Jarome Iginla | 37 | 2014 | 32-64 (78GP) | 35-73 (1310GP) | 34-69 | $5.33M 3 years | $6.45M 3 years | 0.93 | $7.01M 3 years |
When projecting a three-year deal for Kane though, we do see a pretty wide range of about $7M on the low end to nearly $10M on the high end from comparables.
While Kane is coming off a down year that’ll lower his price tag, every single player listed above other than Pavel Dastyuk and Joe Pavelski also had lower production in their signing year than over their career as well. So I don’t necessarily think there’s any reason to believe Kane would be on the lower end of this range.
A lot of the comparables above do point towards a cap hit of about $8M, specifically the projections from the Datsyuk, Stastny and Pavelski contracts. This would seem like a fairly accurate number: we can guess that if Kane is looking for a big contract, the number could come in higher than Pavelski’s 2019 deal, which saw him at a $7M cap hit.
1 OR 2 YEARS
If Kane takes a one or two-year deal, it’s probably because he either wants a specific destination and will accept less term, or he’s planning to retire in 2025 or sooner.
There’s also the chance that Kane’s decline and injury really have scared teams off, somewhat similar to the Vladimir Tarasenko situation with the St. Louis Blues two years ago. If that’s the case, and Kane is getting minimal offers with term, a one or two-year deal is possible.
There really aren’t many two-year comparables, but between a one-year deal or two-year deal, the cap hit probably comes in at a very similar number. A two-year deal, like a one-year deal, isn’t a contract that carries much risk for the team signing it.
For one-year deals, we do have some recent contracts to work with, even if the ages don’t necessarily align:
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Patrick Kane | 35 | 2023 | 24-64 (73GP) | 31-86 (1180GP) | 28-75 | ||||
| ***Joe Thornton | 38 | 2017 | 7-52 (79GP) | 22-79 (1446GP) | 15-66 | $8.00M 1 year | $8.91M 1 year | 1.35 | $10.13M 1 year |
| Taylor Hall | 29 | 2020 | 20-66 (65GP) | 29-74 (627GP) | 25-70 | $8.00M 1 year | $8.20M 1 year | 1.17 | $8.78M 1 year |
| Mike Hoffman | 30 | 2020 | 34-70 (69GP) | 32-60 (493GP) | 33-65 | $4.00M 1 year | $4.10M 1 year | 0.63 | $4.73M 1 year |
It could be possible to see Kane on something like an $8M x 1 or $8M x 2 deal, mirroring the Hall and Thornton contracts.
Something else we could see though, which could perhaps be more likely, would be a one-year deal loaded with performance bonuses. We’ve seen this over the last decade or so with top players near the end of their career.
Below is a sample of forwards who’ve taken a one-year deal with performance bonuses, along with the cap hit and AAV adjusted to an $83.5M cap hit.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Cap Hit | AAV | Adjusted Cap Hit | Adjusted AAV |
| Jarome Iginla | 36 | 2013 | $1.80M | $6.00M | $2.34M | $7.79M |
| ***Patrice Bergeron | 37 | 2022 | $2.50M | $5.00M | $2.53M | $5.06M |
| Daniel Alfredsson | 41 | 2013 | $3.50M | $5.50M | $4.55M | $7.14M |
| ***David Krejci | 36 | 2022 | $1.00M | $3.00M | $1.01M | $3.04M |
| ***Ryan Getzlaf | 36 | 2021 | $3.00M | $4.50M | $3.07M | $4.61M |
| Shane Doan | 40 | 2016 | $3.88M | $4.84M | $4.44M | $5.54M |
If this type of deal was used, we could see Kane’s cap hit down somewhere around $4M, but perhaps an AAV of up to $8M, based on performance bonuses.
Projection
Kane may be coming off a down season, but he’ll still be one of the biggest names on the free agent market this summer. His surgery leaves some uncertainty, but the winger is only one year removed from a 2021-22 season which saw him score 92 points in 78 games. If he wants a high-paying deal, he can probably get it.
As for the term, it’s a bit tougher to tell. Five years is incredibly unlikely, but if Kane intends to continue his career for the foreseeable future, a three-year deal, or even four-year deal is still possible. That said, the longer the term, likely the lower the cap hit.
Again though, as is the case with deals for a top player in his mid-30s, it comes down to what he prioritizes. If he wants to win or to play in a specific location, his deal could be shorter and/or come in at a much lower cap hit. But if money is a priority and it’s a matter of getting the biggest deal possible, here’s what his contract could look like:
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum | Minimum |
| 3 Years | $8.00M | $9.50M | $7.00M |
| 4 Years | $7.00M | $9.00M | $6.00M |
If Kane took a one or two-year deal but wanted fair value and the deal didn’t include signing bonuses, he could probably still be in line for a high-priced deal:
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum | Minimum |
| 1/2 Years | $8.00M | $9.50M | $7.00M |
If Kane took a one-year deal heavily based on performance bonuses though, we could see something like a $4M cap hit with up to an $8M AAV.
Again, this is one of the most difficult contracts to project, based on all the variables from age to injury. I’ve projected what Kane could get, but there are a lot of factors, especially on Kane’s end, that could prompt a much cheaper deal.
Hockey Comparables 
Leave a comment