How much could the former Conn Smythe winner earn in free agency?
Player Overview
Despite now being 32 years old, Ryan O’Reilly will be one of the top centers available if he hits the free agent market this summer.
Well-known as one of the top defensive forwards in the game, O’Reilly would be a great fit as a second-line center on just about any contending team. While he doesn’t have much speed, he’s a hard worker and a strong playmaker who can still post solid offensive numbers.
O’Reilly is just four years removed from a 2018-19 season which saw him capture a Stanley Cup, Selke Trophy, and Conn Smythe Trophy with the St. Louis Blues. The forward was acquired by the Toronto Maple Leafs at the deadline this season in exchange for a sizeable package of draft picks and performed well in his limited time with the team.
Overall though, O’Reilly’s production did slip this year, with the forward managing an 82-game points pace of just 46 (30 points in 53 games).
He did post better numbers in Toronto, but due to the team’s cap situation, there’s a good chance O’Reilly will find a new home in free agency.
What We Know
- Back in March, it was reported that term would be a big part of any O’Reilly contract. It was also noted by The Athletic’s James Mirtle that O’Reilly may be willing to take a slight discount to return to either St. Louis or Toronto.
- O’Reilly grew up in Ontario and did seem to enjoy playing in Toronto, but gave no indication that an extension is likely.
- The Maple Leafs have very limited cap space so if they were to re-sign O’Reilly, it likely means others won’t be back.
Comparables
Below, we take a look at what O’Reilly’s deal could look like at different lengths. For more information on the stats/tables used below, including how the payment rate in projections is determined, visit the About the Site page.
Typically, I try not to mix centers and wingers when comparing contracts. However, there’s a very small sample size of contracts for centers with O’Reilly’s age and production, so I’ll be including some wingers in the comparable contract tables as well.
With O’Reilly now 32 years old, we’ll be looking at comparable players who were at least 31 years old in the first year of their contract.
7 YEARS
From my research, there hasn’t been a single instance of a forward who’ll be 32 years or older in the first year of their contract (by Dec. 31) receiving an eight-year deal over the last decade, so we’ll start at a possible seven-year deal.
As a general rule though, don’t give a 32-year-old a seven-year contract. It’s almost surely not going to go well.
However, there is a recent example which points to the fact it could happen with O’Reilly, which is Nazem Kadri’s 2022 contract with the Calgary Flames.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Ryan O’Reilly | 32 | 2023 | 25-46 (53GP) | 21-58 (991GP) | 23-52 | ||||
| Nazem Kadri | 32 | 2022 | 32-100 (71GP) | 24-57 (739GP) | 28-79 | $7.00M 7 years | $7.08M 7 years | 0.90 | $4.66M 7 years |
| ***Marian Gaborik | 32 | 2014 | 23-60 (41GP) | 35-71 (810GP) | 29-66 | $4.88M 7 years | $5.91M 7 years | 0.89 | $4.65M 7 years |
A big difference here though is Kadri was coming off a ridiculous season, where he scored a points per 82 pace of 100 points. Meanwhile, O’Reilly just completed his least productive season in more than a decade. Typically you can bet on a player levelling out statistically after an outlier year, good or bad, but that’s probably not a chance you want to take with a player in his 30s.
Marian Gaborik would be another example of a player who was 32 years old in the first year of a contract getting a seven-year deal. Gaborik was a winger and take what you will from a contract signed almost a decade ago, but his contract would project a nearly identical $4.65M cap hit for O’Reilly.
I’d imagine it’s really unlikely we see O’Reilly get a seven-year deal, but if he does, it should come at a drastically reduced rate, like the one projected by the two deals.
6 YEARS
Six years seems a bit more possible for O’Reilly’s deal, but it’s still a lot of term.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Ryan O’Reilly | 32 | 2023 | 25-46 (53GP) | 21-58 (991GP) | 23-52 | ||||
| Ryan Kesler | 32 | 2016 | 20-48 (81GP) | 23-49 (736GP) | 22-49 | $6.88M 6 years | $7.87M 6 years | 1.61 | $8.35M 6 years |
| Frans Nielsen | 32 | 2016 | 20-53 (81GP) | 16-47 (606GP) | 18-50 | $5.25M 6 years | $6.01M 6 years | 1.20 | $6.25M 6 years |
| ***Loui Eriksson | 31 | 2016 | 30-63 (82GP) | 24-57 (725GP) | 27-59 | $6.00M 6 years | $6.86M 6 years | 1.16 | $6.05M 6 years |
| Bryan Little | 31 | 2018 | 29-65 (59GP) | 22-53 (672GP) | 26-59 | $5.29M 6 years | $5.56M 6 years | 0.94 | $4.90M 6 years |
For starters, the projection from Kesler’s contract is far, far too high and not a realistic outcome. The deal was a mistake, and Kesler had hit a steep decline by only the second season of the deal.
Even looking at the other three, not a single one of these contracts worked out well, with no player above finishing their deal with the same team. Projections from the Nielsen, Eriksson and Little contracts have some consistency though, putting the deal at a range of roughly between $5M and $6.25M.
I think this is actually somewhat of a possible range for O’Reilly if he got a six-year deal, but we know that these contracts typically do not end well.
5 YEARS
I think five years is where we start getting into more realistic territory for a deal.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Ryan O’Reilly | 32 | 2023 | 25-46 (53GP) | 21-58 (991GP) | 23-52 | ||||
| David Backes | 32 | 2016 | 22-47 (79GP) | 23-52 (727GP) | 23-50 | $6.00M 5 years | $6.86M 5 years | 1.37 | $7.13M 5 years |
| Nicklas Backstrom | 32 | 2020 | 19-74 (39GP) | 21-80 (934GP) | 20-77 | $9.20M 5 years | $9.43M 5 years | 1.22 | $6.37M 5 years |
| ***Alexander Radulov | 31 | 2017 | 19-58 (76GP) | 23-56 (230GP) | 21-57 | $6.25M 5 years | $6.96M 5 years | 1.22 | $6.35M 5 years |
| ***Ondrej Palat | 31 | 2022 | 19-52 (77GP) | 19-55 (628GP) | 19-54 | $6.00M 5 years | $6.07M 5 years | 1.12 | $5.85M 5 years |
| ***James Neal | 31 | 2018 | 29-51 (71GP) | 31-58 (703GP) | 30-55 | $5.75M 5 years | $6.05M 5 years | 1.10 | $5.71M 5 years |
| ***Blake Wheeler | 33 | 2019 | 23-92 (81GP) | 23-64 (778GP) | 23-78 | $8.25M 5 years | $8.45M 5 years | 1.08 | $5.63M 5 years |
| ***Mats Zuccarello | 32 | 2019 | 21-68 (48GP) | 18-57 (511GP) | 20-63 | $6.00M 5 years | $6.15M 5 years | 0.98 | $5.08M 5 years |
| Vincent Lecavalier | 33 | 2013 | 21-67 (39GP) | 30-69 (1037GP) | 26-68 | $4.50M 5 years | $5.84M 5 years | 0.86 | $4.47M 5 years |
We have another clear range on a five-year deal too, from about $5.10M to $6.35M, aside from the Lecavalier contract from a decade ago and the Backes deal. Generally, if a 32-year-old is taking a five-year deal, he should be getting more than on a sixth-year deal, due to the minimized risk.
While he could fall anywhere within that range, I don’t see O’Reilly going as low as close to $5M on a five-year deal. Realistically, we can probably expect him to fall somewhere between that $5.5M and $6M range.
4 YEARS
Four years is probably the shortest deal we’d see for O’Reilly.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Ryan O’Reilly | 32 | 25-46 (53GP) | 21-58 (991GP) | 23-52 | |||||
| ***Max Pacioretty | 31 | 2019 | 22-47 (64GP) | 30-59 (626GP) | 26-53 | $7.00M 4 years | $7.17M 4 years | 1.35 | $7.02M 4 years |
| ***Daniel Sedin | 34 | 2014 | 25-73 (63GP) | 27-69 (922GP) | 26-71 | $7.00M 4 years | $8.47M 4 years | 1.19 | $6.20M 4 years |
| **Henrik Sedin | 34 | 2014 | 18-82 (64GP) | 16-70 (956GP) | 17-76 | $7.00M 4 years | $8.47M 4 years | 1.11 | $5.80M 4 years |
| ***Alexander Steen | 33 | 2017 | 21-64 (67GP) | 22-53 (746GP) | 22-59 | $5.75M 4 years | $6.40M 4 years | 1.08 | $5.64M 4 years |
***Winger
However, our available comparables for four-year deals of players around O’Reilly’s age really aren’t the best. It’s a mix of wingers and deals signed a long time ago.
That said, we do still get a fairly clear range, from about $5.65M to $7.00M. It checks out as well, given it continues the trend of less term equals higher cap hit.
3 YEARS
Three years is probably the absolute minimum term we see for O’Reilly, but I’d still imagine the term comes in at four years or more. He’s also 32 years old and coming off a down year, so taking a shorter deal and betting on a resurgence to try to get a bigger deal later (as he gets deeper into his 30s) is unrealistic.
A three-year deal is probably the scenario where O’Reilly gets the highest possible cap hit, given it would likely mean sacrificing term, as someone would surely offer him more than three years. Still, O’Reilly ending up with a deal as short as three years seems unlikely.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year G&P/82 | Career G&P/82 | Mid Point | Cap Hit | On $83.5M Cap | Payment Rate | Projection |
| Ryan O’Reilly | 32 | 2023 | 25-46 (53GP) | 21-58 (991GP) | 23-52 | ||||
| Paul Stastny | 34 | 2018 | 22-50 (66GP) | 23-66 (742GP) | 23-58 | $6.50M 3 years | $6.83M 3 years | 1.18 | $6.12M 3 years |
| Tyler Bozak | 32 | 2018 | 11-44 (81GP) | 19-50 (594GP) | 15-47 | $5.00M 3 years | $5.25M 3 years | 1.12 | $5.80M 3 years |
| Joe Pavelski | 35 | 2019 | 42-70 (76GP) | 30-65 (963GP) | 36-68 | $7.00M 3 years | $7.17M 3 years | 1.05 | $5.48M 3 years |
Admittedly, Pavelski and Stastny aren’t ideal comparables either, given the age difference. The range given from the projections also doesn’t make a ton of sense, given the price range is lower than that of a four-year deal.
I’d be inclined to say the cap hit should be closer to the $6.50M mark, based on where projections stand for other terms, but the comparables say otherwise for a three-year deal. Again, it’s unlikely we see as short as a three-year deal, but if we did, I’d bet it would come in higher than the comparables are projecting.
Projection
There really are comparables for just about every term for O’Reilly, so it’s a little hard to project how this contact could go. If term is a big part of any contract for the forward, it’s possible someone may give him a deal up around six years with a lower cap hit.
However, I’d expect the most likely term for the deal to be in the four or five-year range, with projections for other terms as well listed below. Generally though, we can expect the longer the deal, the lower the cap hit.
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum | Minimum |
| 4 Years | $6.00M | $7.00M | $5.65M |
| 5 Years | $5.50M | $6.35M | $5.10M |
| 6 Years | $5.00M | $6.25M | $5.00M |
| 7 Years | $4.64M | $5.00M | $4.50M |
Alternatively, if O’Reilly ended up with a three-year deal, comparables would still put it around a $6M cap hit, though it wouldn’t be surprising to see it go higher.
Hockey Comparables 
Leave a comment