The Blue Jackets committed to Damon Severson long-term: but was it the right move?
The New Jersey Devils and Columbus Blue Jackets completed the NHL’s second ever sign-and-trade today, with Damon Severson joining the Blue Jackets on an eight-year deal. Severson was set to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1, and his extension carries a $6.25M cap hit. The contract will also carry a full no-trade clause for the first four years, which becomes a partial no-trade clause later on.
While all of our designated Top-50 Free Agents will get a projection article throughout June, Severson signed his deal before the projection was released. So instead, we’ll take a look at comparable contracts to evaluate how the deal looks for the Blue Jackets, and whether it was the right decision.
Player Overview
Severson had spent his entire career with the Devils, prior to the trade. Since being selected by the Devils in the second round of the 2012 NHL Draft, he played in 647 games with the team, registering 263 points.
The defensemen’s strongest asset is his puck-moving ability, often able to get the puck up ice to a teammate with a great stretch pass for a quick entry. He’s also able to put the puck in the net better than most defenders, scoring at a rate of about nine goals per 82 games over his last five seasons.
However, Severson was bumped to the Devils’ third pairing, due to the depth of the blue line. He was playing a fairly sheltered, offensive role, and faced a lower quality of competition this season than any of Dougie Hamilton, Jonas Siegenthaler, Ryan Graves or John Marino (according to Hockey Abstract). He’s also prone to some pretty tough turnovers at times and the concern could be that he may not fare as well in Columbus if he’s tasked with too large of a role.
What We Know
- New Jersey Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald had reportedly let Severson know the team was probably going to have to move on.
- The Devils would’ve been willing to do a short-term deal with Severson, but the defenseman wanted an eight-year deal, according to TSN’s Pierre LeBrun.
Comparables
Below, we take a look at comparables for different contract cap hits and lengths, and try to determine if Severson’s deal was warranted.
8 YEARS
An eight-year deal for the defender wasn’t necessarily the expectation, given maximum-term contracts for defensemen around Severson’s age don’t necessarily come around all that often. When they do, whether it’s eight years for a player re-signing or seven years for someone heading elsewhere in free agency, seven and eight-year deals are often reserved for top NHL defensemen.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| Damon Severson | 29 | 2023 | 33 (81GP) | 33 (647GP) | 19:57 | 21:11 | ||
| Erik Karlsson | 29 | 2019 | 70 (53GP) | 68 (680GP) | 24:49 | 25:51 | $11.50M 8 years | $11.78M 8 years |
| Drew Doughty | 30 | 2019 | 60 (82GP) | 45 (770GP) | 26:50 | 26:15 | $11.00M 8 years | $11.27M 8 years |
| Seth Jones | 28 | 2022 | 41 (56GP) | 40 (580GP) | 25:15 | 23:03 | $9.50M 8 years | $9.62M 8 years |
| Darnell Nurse | 27 | 2022 | 53 (56GP) | 32 (406GP) | 25:38 | 22:18 | $9.25M 8 years | $9.36M 8 years |
| **Roman Josi | 30 | 2020 | 60 (94GP) | 51 (563GP) | 25:05 | 24:41 | $9.06M 8 years | $9.28M 8 years |
| Victor Hedman | 27 | 2017 | 49 (23GP) | 40 (470GP) | 23:04 | 22:11 | $7.88M 8 years | $8.77M 8 years |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 28 | 2019 | 42 (82GP) | 41 (576GP) | 23:41 | 23:39 | $8.25M 8 years | $8.45M 8 years |
| John Carlson | 28 | 2018 | 68 (82GP) | 45 (608GP) | 24:47 | 23:00 | $8.00M 8 years | $8.40M 8 years |
| Brent Seabrook | 31 | 2016 | 31 (82GP) | 34 (763GP) | 22:11 | 22:29 | $6.88M 8 years | $7.87M 8 years |
| **Morgan Rielly | 28 | 2022 | 51 (63GP) | 44 (580GP) | 23:43 | 21:53 | $7.50M 8 years | $7.59M 8 years |
| Cam Fowler | 27 | 2018 | 40 (80GP) | 36 (494GP) | 24:51 | 22:48 | $6.50M 8 years | $6.83M 8 years |
| Colton Parayko | 29 | 2022 | 31 (32GP) | 34 (418GP) | 21:20 | 21:43 | $6.50M 8 years | $6.58M 8 years |
| Hampus Lindholm | 28 | 2022 | 30 (61GP) | 31 (589GP) | 22:32 | 22:11 | $6.50M 8 years | $6.58M 8 years |
| Ryan Ellis | 28 | 2019 | 60 (44GP) | 36 (396GP) | 23:31 | 19:36 | $6.25M 8 years | $6.40M 8 years |
| MacKenzie Weeger | 29 | 2023 | 45 (80GP) | 32 (306GP) | 23:22 | 19:33 | $6.25M 8 years | $6.25M 8 years |
| Ryan Pulock | 28 | 2022 | 25 (56GP) | 35 (290GP) | 22:27 | 21:03 | $6.15M 8 years | $6.22M 8 years |
| Adam Pelech | 27 | 2021 | 21 (56GP) | 20 (303GP) | 21:03 | 19:16 | $5.75M 8 years | $5.89M 8 years |
From the Morgan Rielly contract and upwards within the table, pretty much every player who had an adjusted $7.50M cap hit or higher (based on an $83.5M cap) was a legitimate star. It could be a bit of an exaggeration for some, but anyone above that point at least had a massive season before signing their contract. From that $7.50M point and up, every player averaged over 40 points per 82 and more than 23 minutes per game. The one exception was Brent Seabrook, who was coming off his third Stanley Cup win in six years, and undoubtedly had ‘Stanley Cup Tax’ on his deal.
Even below that threshold of $7.50M on the table, Cam Fowler, Ryan Ellis and MacKenzie Weegar all had a much larger role and had higher production than Severson. From what I can see, he’s the only player to get an eight-year deal around his age who didn’t even reach 20 minutes per game in his signing year. I mean, 19:57 is about as close as it gets, but the point is every other eight-year deal on this list came after a player had at least 21 minutes per game in their contract year and for most defenders, their usage was much higher.
Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock did have lower production, but context is also important. At the time of signing, the duo were playing top-pairing minutes within a New York Islanders’ defense group that had helped lead the team to back-to-back Conference Final appearances.
The two comparables here that do check out a bit are Colton Parayko and Hampus Lindholm. While Lindholm was tasked with a much larger role than Severson, Parayko’s usage wasn’t much higher. Again though, you can factor Cup Tax into the deal a bit, given Parayko was just two years removed from a Stanley Cup win, and the St. Louis Blues had already just lost their other top right-handed defender, in Alex Pietrangelo.
So while there are a couple comparables, when you look at the calibre of defensemen typically getting an eight-year deal around UFA status or just before, Severson doesn’t necessarily fit in.
7 YEARS
If Severson hadn’t participated in a sign-and-trade, seven years would’ve been his maximum possible term on a contract in free agency.
If you look at the players who’ve received seven-year deals in the past though, once again, most have either better production than Severson, or play more minutes than him.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| Damon Severson | 29 | 2023 | 33 (81GP) | 33 (647GP) | 19:57 | 21:11 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton | 28 | 2021 | 63 (55GP) | 46 (607GP) | 22:43 | 20:27 | $9.00M 7 years | $9.22M 7 years |
| Alex Pietrangelo | 30 | 2020 | 61 (70GP) | 49 (758GP) | 24:11 | 24:38 | $8.80M 7 years | $9.02M 7 years |
| Jared Spurgeon | 31 | 2020 | 43 (82GP) | 35 (591GP) | 24:09 | 22:21 | $7.58M 7 years | $7.77M 7 years |
| Keith Yandle | 30 | 2016 | 47 (82GP) | 46 (661GP) | 19:58 | 21:10 | $6.35M 7 years | $7.26M 7 years |
| Ryan McDonagh | 30 | 2019 | 38 (63GP) | 37 (530GP) | 23:20 | 23:30 | $6.75M 7 years | $6.92M 7 years |
| Justin Faulk | 28 | 2019 | 35 (82GP) | 38 (559GP) | 22:25 | 23:16 | $6.50M 7 years | $6.66M 7 years |
| Torey Krug | 29 | 2020 | 66 (61GP) | 66 (61GP) | 20:29 | 20:19 | $6.50M 7 years | $6.66M 7 years |
| Jonas Brodin | 28 | 2021 | 33 (69GP) | 22 (555GP) | 21:33 | 21:50 | $6.00M 7 years | $6.15M 7 years |
While Severson provides a chunk of his impact based on offense, he wasn’t producing at anywhere near the same rate as most other defenders listed above, who received seven-year deals. The exceptions to this would be Justin Faulk, Ryan McDonagh and Jonas Brodin, but both Faulk and McDonagh had quite a bit more ice time per game both in their signing year, and over their career.
Brodin does act as somewhat of a comparable, with slightly lower career production and slightly more ice time. But for most of the comparables, whether it be production or usage, they’re bringing something that Severson isn’t, which doesn’t help to justify a seven-year deal for the defender.
So should the deal have been shorter? Below, we’ll look at what whether a different length was realistic.
6 YEARS
For whatever reason, six year deals have become very, very uncommon with UFA defensemen in their late 20s. It seems like they’re either locking into seven or eight-year deals, or taking four or five-year deals.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| Damon Severson | 29 | 2023 | 33 (81GP) | 33 (647GP) | 19:57 | 21:11 | ||
| **Nate Schmidt | 28 | 2019 | 39 (84GP) | 24 (284GP) | 22:14 | 18:08 | $5.95M 6 years | $6.10M 6 years |
While it’s obviously a very minimal sample size and Schmidt may not be the perfect comparable player based on lack of experience, the $6.10M projection on a six-year deal may have been a fair deal.
5 YEARS
Guessing ahead of time what term was most likely for Severson, my thought was five years, with a specific comparable acting as a good predictor.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| Damon Severson | 29 | 2023 | 33 (81GP) | 33 (647GP) | 19:57 | 21:11 | ||
| Alex Goligoski | 31 | 2016 | 37 (82GP) | 40 (562GP) | 23:50 | 22:37 | $5.45M 5 years | $6.27M 5 years |
| Tyler Myers | 29 | 2019 | 32 (80GP) | 34 (635GP) | 20:21 | 22:22 | $6.00M 5 years | $6.15M 5 years |
| *Rasmus Ristolainen | 28 | 2022 | 23 (50GP) | 36 (592GP) | 21:26 | 23:37 | $5.10M 5 years | $5.16M 5 years |
| Jamie Oleskiak | 29 | 2021 | 21 (56GP) | 16 (369GP) | 20:29 | 16:09 | $4.60M 5 years | $4.71M 5 years |
A recent deal for Tyler Myers in 2019 acted as essentially the perfect comparable in almost every category. Between production (both in signing season and over his career), age, ice time and total games played, there was reason to think Myers would be the perfect comparable, at a $6M cap hit on a five-year deal. Perhaps it would come in slightly above to factor in the higher cap, maybe around $6.25M, but it was a very solid comparable contract.
Alex Goligoski was another that would’ve put Severson in line for a $6.25M deal over five years after adjusting his old deal to the current cap, though his production and usage were higher. We could also guess that Severson would’ve come in higher than Ristolainen and Oleksiak (deals around $5M per year) based on the production factor.
But a five-year deal between $6M and $6.25M seemed like a strong possibility.
4 YEARS
Anything shorter than five years was always going to be very unlikely for Severson, but there were some comparables for it.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| Damon Severson | 29 | 2023 | 33 (81GP) | 33 (647GP) | 19:57 | 21:11 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk | 28 | 2017 | 57 (80GP) | 50 (480GP) | 19:56 | 21:06 | $6.65M 4 years | $7.40M 4 years |
| *Jared Spurgeon | 27 | 2016 | 44 (32GP) | 30 (307GP) | 22:18 | 21:01 | $5.19M 4 years | $5.94M 4 years |
| *Jake Muzzin | 31 | 2020 | 35 (52GP) | 36 (578GP) | 21:36 | 21:15 | $5.63M 4 years | $5.77M 4 years |
| T.J. Brodie | 30 | 2021 | 24 (64GP) | 34 (634GP) | 20:27 | 22:35 | $5.00M 4 years | $5.12M 4 years |
| Ben Chiarot | 31 | 2022 | 29 (76GP) | 20 (489GP) | 22:51 | 18:38 | $4.75M 4 years | $4.81M 4 years |
| Jake Gardiner | 29 | 2019 | 40 (62GP) | 36 (551GP) | 21:13 | 21:21 | $4.05M 4 years | $4.15M 4 years |
Muzzin was two years older for the first year of his deal, so four years was probably more suitable on that deal than Severson’s contract. However, even many of these players listed had either more ice time than Severson, better production, or both. So again, there’s an argument to be made that Severson’s deal could’ve been half as long as the eight-year term.
3 YEARS OR LESS
Three years was extremely unlikely, given if Severson got to free agency, someone would surely give him more term, but there are some other examples below.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| Damon Severson | 29 | 2023 | 33 (81GP) | 33 (647GP) | 19:57 | 21:11 | ||
| Mike Green | 30 | 2015 | 51 (72GP) | 51 (575GP) | 19:06 | 22:11 | $6.00M 3 years | $7.02M 3 years |
| Tyson Barrie | 30 | 2021 | 70 (56GP) | 53 (610GP) | 21:24 | 21:45 | $4.50M 3 years | $4.61M 3 years |
| Kevin Shattenkirk | 31 | 2020 | 40 (70GP) | 46 (679GP) | 18:24 | 20:35 | $3.90M 3 years | $4.00M 3 years |
| Justin Schultz | 27 | 2017 | 54 (78GP) | 38 (344GP) | 20:27 | 21:21 | $5.50M 3 years | $6.12M 3 years |
There’s a reason that each of these players would’ve taken a three-year deal, though. Green got a higher cap hit than he likely would’ve had he signed a longer deal (and we also can’t put too much emphasis on it, given it was signed eight years ago). You can probably put Schultz in that category as well, in that he couldn’t have gotten a long-term deal at that value.
Meanwhile, Tyson Barrie and Kevin Shattenkirk had both just rebuilt their value, after taking a one-year deal prior to their three-year contract. It’s a different story for Severson in the prime of his career, and there’s almost no reason that he would’ve taken this short of a contract.
There aren’t a ton of comparables for two-year deals, though Vladislav Gavrikov did just sign a pretty rare, short-term UFA deal earlier this week. However, there was always the slim possibility of a one-year deal, as seen last year with John Klingberg, who tried to bet on himself for a better contract later.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap Hit |
| Damon Severson | 29 | 2023 | 33 (81GP) | 33 (647GP) | 19:57 | 21:11 | ||
| John Klingberg | 30 | 2022 | 52 (74GP) | 56 (552GP) | 22:13 | 22:59 | $7.00M 1 year | $7.08M 1 year |
However, it’s incredibly uncommon and we saw the risk attached to it. Klingberg’s value took a massive hit this season and he’s now set to earn a fraction of what he would’ve if he signed a longer term deal a year ago. There was basically no reason for Severson to go this route.
Final Analysis
By most comparables, Severson’s contract coming in right around a $6M cap hit was expected. However, it’s the term that’s the sticking point here.
The debate is bascially between whether Severson should’ve had a deal at about five years, or the full seven/eight years. Based on the comparables, you could certainly argue it should’ve been five rather than seven, let alone eight.
Again though, we know Severson wanted eight years. From his perspective, even on a seven-year deal, he would’ve needed a $7.14M cap hit on a max-term, seven-year deal on July 1 in order to get the same total value from his eight-year deal at $6.25M. Obviously, that was probably never going to happen, so pursuing the eighth year via sign and trade was the best option from the player’s perspective.
You can also understand the move from the Blue Jackets’ perspective. They’ve frequently been a team that struggles to retain top talent, with the likes of Artemi Panarin, Sergei Bobrovsky, Seth Jones, Pierre-Luc Dubois and others all walking away. So if it took adding extra years to a deal to lock up a quality defender long-term, it may just make sense for the team.
There were also some comparables that justify the length of the deal a bit, like the contracts of Colton Parayko and Jonas Brodin, so it’s not completely ridiculous. But this is probably a deal that’ll look pretty rough as Severson enters the back half of it in his mid-30s, and the same price tag on a five-year deal seems like it would’ve been more justified, based on comparables.
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