Player Overview
In somewhat of a thin free agent class on the blue line, Mayfield stands out as one of the better right-handed defensemen available.
A bit of a late bloomer, Mayfield only started to verge on a full-time NHL role in 2017 at 25 years old. He’s spent his entire professional career with the Islanders, since being selected 34th overall by the team in 2011.
At 6-foot-5, Mayfield can provide a physical impact. While hitting is one thing, Mayfield’s size, along with his intensity, means he’s consistently able to win battles in the defensive zone. He also took on a large role on the Islanders’ fairly strong blue line this season, facing the second-highest quality of competition of any defender on the team (according to Hockey Abstract). He also spent more time killing penalties than any other player on New York.
Mayfield can play a top-four role, but is probably best suited as more of a 4/5 defenseman on a contending team. He’s strong defensively, but can still get caught flat-footed or out of position at times. Generally, he should be counted on for about 20 minutes per game.
While Mayfield can actually put up an 82-game pace of about 20-25 points, he shouldn’t be counted on for much offense. He can come down from the blue line at times to get a shot off, but his offensive impact is really just supplementary to his defensive game.
What We Know
- Mayfield has stated that he enjoys New York, but there haven’t been many reports on the likelihood of whether he’ll return.
- Islanders’ general manager Lou Lamoriello stated yesterday that re-signing current unrestricted free agents is a priority. With New York very close to the cap though, re-signing Mayfield could mean needing to clear space in a different way.
Comparables
Below, we take a look at possible contract projections for different possible terms.
For more information on the stats/tables used in the projection, visit the About the Site page.
5 YEARS
A five-year deal is probably the longest possible contract that we’d see for Mayfield. Even with that considered, comparables for a five-year deal are minimal.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap |
| Scott Mayfield | 31 | 2023 | 24 (82GP) | 21 (428GP) | 21:03 | 19:12 | ||
| Karl Alzner | 29 | 2017 | 13 (82GP) | 16 (591GP) | 19:47 | 20:12 | $4.63M 5 years | $5.15M 5 years |
| Jamie Oleksiak | 29 | 2021 | 21 (56GP) | 16 (369GP) | 20:29 | 16:09 | $4.60M 5 years | $4.71M 5 years |
| Jack Johnson | 31 | 2018 | 12 (77GP) | 29 (788GP) | 19:33 | 22:52 | $3.25M 5 years | $3.41M 5 years |
Of the three comparables, it’s difficult to even take the Oleksiak and Alzner contracts as all that applicable, given both defensemen signed the deal at two years younger than Mayfield. Johnson’s deal is the only one that could be comparable.
It’s probably on likely we see a five-year deal if Mayfield is re-signed by the Islanders and the team gives more term to keep the cap hit down, like they did with Casey Cizikas’ extension in 2021.
Still though, five years is unlikely, and you can see why. As of the three contracts, Oleksiak’s is the only one that wasn’t bought out (and he’s only completed two years of the deal to this point).
4 YEARS
A four-year deal seems to be the most likely scenario for Mayfield. He’s not going to get Ekholm, Muzzin, Brodie, or even Chiarot money, but the question is: how close could he get?
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap |
| Scott Mayfield | 31 | 2023 | 24 (82GP) | 21 (428GP) | 21:03 | 19:12 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm | 32 | 2022 | 33 (76GP) | 31 (662GP) | 23:29 | 21:49 | $6.25M 4 years | $6.33M 4 years |
| *Jake Muzzin | 31 | 2020 | 35 (52GP) | 36 (578GP) | 21:36 | 21:15 | $5.63M 4 years | $5.77M 4 years |
| T.J. Brodie | 30 | 2021 | 24 (64GP) | 34 (634GP) | 20:27 | 22:35 | $5.00M 4 years | $5.12M 4 years |
| Ben Chiarot | 31 | 2022 | 29 (76GP) | 20 (489GP) | 22:51 | 18:38 | $4.75M 4 years | $4.81M 4 years |
| Chris Tanev | 31 | 2020 | 24 (69GP) | 19 (514GP) | 19:32 | 19:44 | $4.50M 4 years | $4.61M 4 years |
| Josh Manson | 31 | 2022 | 20 (67GP) | 21 (475GP) | 18:59 | 19:44 | $4.50M 4 years | $4.55M 4 years |
| Kris Russell | 30 | 2017 | 16 (67GP) | 24 (641GP) | 21:13 | 19:24 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.45M 4 years |
| Connor Murphy | 29 | 2022 | 25 (50GP) | 18 (494GP) | 22:09 | 19:06 | $4.40M 4 years | $4.45M 4 years |
| Adam Larsson | 29 | 2021 | 15 (56GP) | 19 (603GP) | 19:39 | 20:42 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.10M 4 years |
| Erik Gudbranson | 30 | 2022 | 18 (78GP) | 12 (641GP) | 18:08 | 18:11 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.05M 4 years |
| Nick Leddy | 31 | 2022 | 26 (75GP) | 35 (851GP) | 21:25 | 20:37 | $4.00M 4 years | $4.05M 4 years |
| Brenden Dillon | 30 | 2020 | 17 (69GP) | 16 (598GP) | 19:27 | 18:34 | $3.90M 4 years | $4.00M 4 years |
| David Savard | 31 | 2021 | 9 (54GP) | 22 (611GP) | 19:51 | 20:26 | $3.50M 4 years | $3.59M 4 years |
| Marco Scandella | 30 | 2021 | 17 (62GP) | 19 (580GP) | 17:35 | 19:50 | $3.28M 4 years | $3.36M 4 years |
Obviously, all of Ekholm, Muzzin and Brodie got a much bigger deal than Mayfield will, based on their production and usage. You can also make the argument that based on Chiarot’s ice time in his contract year – playing nearly 23 minutes per game – that his $4.75M cap hit is well outside of Mayfield’s range too.
After that though, the deals do start to get much more comparable. Tanev ($4.50M cap hit) may have a reputation as a high-end shutdown defender, but his actual production and ice time are very similar to Mayfield. Then while Josh Manson’s deal may have carried a bit of Stanley Cup tax, again, his stats are fairly comparable, and you could argue his style of play closely aligned to Mayfield. Russell is also an older comp but fairly similar nonetheless, and Connor Murphy may have had slightly more ice time in his contract year, but again, he had comparable production to Mayfield and signed his deal at a very similar career GP. So while Mayfield may not be quite up around the $4.50M range, his camp would have an argument for it.
Once you get into the comparable deals at $4M, you start to why Mayfield’s deal could get up around that mark. While Nick Leddy did have far superior production over his career to justify a higher cap hit, the only argument that Mayfield shouldn’t be viewed as a comparable player to Adam Larsson, Erik Gudranson or Brenden Dillon would be based on slightly less career games played. Once we’re talking about 430 games vs 600 games though, you do have to question how much of a difference that really makes.
I don’t think there’s any doubt that a four-year deal for Mayfield should come in above Savard and Scandella’s deals, above a $3.50M cap hit. But it’s a matter of whether he’s able to get to the $4M mark.
I think it really depends if a team sees him as a legitimate top-four defenseman and is willing to pay him accordingly. I have a four-year deal for him at $3.75M, but it could certainly verge into that $4M territory.
3 YEARS
Aside from a four-year deal, the second-most likely term would be three years.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | Season TOI/GP | Career TOI/GP | Contract | On $83.5M Cap |
| Scott Mayfield | 31 | 2023 | 24 (82GP) | 21 (428GP) | 21:03 | 19:12 | ||
| Anton Stralman | 33 | 2019 | 30 (47GP) | 26 (749GP) | 20:31 | 19:49 | $5.50M 3 years | $5.63M 3 years |
| Tyson Barrie | 31 | 2021 | 70 (56GP) | 53 (610GP) | 21:24 | 21:45 | $4.50M 3 years | $4.61M 3 years |
| Ian Cole | 29 | 2018 | 24 (67GP) | 20 (405GP) | 17:47 | 17:20 | $4.25M 3 years | $4.46M 3 years |
| Nick Jensen | 33 | 2023 | 32 (62GP) | 20 (469GP) | 20:58 | 18:30 | $4.05M 3 years | $4.05M 3 years |
| Kevin Shattenkirk | 31 | 2020 | 40 (70GP) | 46 (679GP) | 18:54 | 20:35 | $3.90M 3 years | $4.00M 3 years |
| Derek Forbort | 29 | 2021 | 18 (56GP) | 16 (331GP) | 20:45 | 20:01 | $3.00M 3 years | $3.07M 3 years |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk | 31 | 2023 | 26 (69GP) | 17 (523GP) | 19:03 | 17:23 | $3.00M 3 years | $3.00M 3 years |
| *Brayden McNabb | 31 | 2022 | 16 (45GP) | 16 (552GP) | 19:29 | 18:37 | $2.85M 3 years | $2.88M 3 years |
| Jan Rutta | 32 | 2023 | 19 (76GP) | 21 (238GP) | 16:23 | 16:47 | $2.75M 3 years | $2.78M 3 years |
| Radko Gudas | 30 | 2020 | 20 (63GP) | 21 (479GP) | 16:44 | 18:13 | $2.50M 3 years | $2.56M 3 years |
Both Stralman and Barrie are outside Mayfield’s range, but Ian Cole presents a comparable that could put Mayfield as high as $4.45M on a three-year deal, based on an $83.5M cap.
It’s hard to really compare Shattenkirk’s value, given his impact was mostly offensive, but Nick Jensen presents as a great comp. While Jensen did have a larger contract year production-wise, he eclipsed a $4.00M cap hit despite being two years older than Mayfield with very similar career P/82, and ice time both in his contract year, and over his career.
Forbort is actually somewhat comparable as well, but looking at ice time and production, Mayfield is pretty clearly set as more valuable than Trevor van Riemsdyk, Jan Rutta, Radko Gudas, or likely even Brayden McNabb, which puts him well above that $3M mark.
You have to think three years is probably the ideal term from a team’s perspective, given Mayfield’s age. However, we can be pretty sure that unless Mayfield is willing to be flexible with his term to either stay in New York or go to a specific destination, someone will offer him four years. The only way he probably takes a shorter term is if it comes with a higher cap hit. Someone may be willing to pay a bit more to avoid a $3.75M charge when Mayfield is 34 years old, which could be a bit more of a risk. Both Cole and Jensen point to comparable contracts, so a three-year deal could see Mayfield hit $4M.
2 YEARS
A two-year deal is unlikely – given Mayfield’s age there’s no reason to bet on a larger contract later, and someone will almost certainly give him a longer deal.
However, there are limited potential comparables.
| Player | Age | First Year of Contract | Signing Year P/82 | Career P/82 | TOI Season | Career TOI | Contract | On $83.5M Cap |
| Scott Mayfield | 31 | 2023 | 24 (82GP) | 21 (428GP) | 21:03 | 19:12 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov | 29 | 2023 | 22 (72GP) | 24 (276GP) | 21:58 | 20:48 | $5.88M 2 years | $5.88M 2 years |
| Justin Schultz | 30 | 2020 | 21 (46GP) | 36 (482GP) | 19:53 | 20:55 | $4.00M 2 years | $4.10M 2 years |
| Travis Hamonic | 31 | 2021 | 22 (38GP) | 24 (675GP) | 19:22 | 21:58 | $3.00M 2 years | $3.07M 2 years |
| Justin Schultz | 32 | 2022 | 25 (74GP) | 36 (602GP) | 16:55 | 20:17 | $3.00M 2 years | $3.04M 2 years |
| Olli Maatta | 29 | 2023 | 28 (50GP) | 22 (584GP) | 18:09 | 18:35 | $3.00M 2 years | $3.00M 2 years |
| Dmitry Kulikov | 31 | 2021 | 7 (48GP) | 20 (725GP) | 19:10 | 19:54 | $2.25M 2 years | $2.31M 2 years |
| Nick Holden | 31 | 2018 | 19 (73GP) | 25 GP (374GP) | 19:00 | 20:01 | $2.00M 2 years | $2.10M 2 years |
Again, it’s unlikely Mayfield gets as short of a deal as two years. Many of the other players listed were almost certainly only able to get two years as a maximum length, and don’t act as very realistic comparables for Mayfield.
However, we did just see a rare type of deal take place today with Vladislav Gavrikov and the Los Angeles Kings. Gavrikov couldn’t gotten a much longer deal, but took a shorter contract with a higher cap hit.
This is basically the only scenario in which it would make sense for Mayfield: take a well-priced two-year deal, then hope to get a second multi-year deal later on. It would have to be up around $4M cap hit to make it worthwhile, if he couldn’t already get that high of a cap hit on a longer deal. The big difference though is that Gavrikov is three years younger than Mayfield, so it would certainly be gamble and we can bet it’s very unlikely to happen.
Projection
Four years remains the most likely term for a new contract, with three years being the second-most likely length.
It’s always possible we see a slightly longer or shorter deal, but Mayfield should be within that range – here are the projections:
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 4 Years | $3.75M | $4.50M | $3.50M |
| 3 Years | $4.00M | $4.50M | $3.00M |
Two less likely projections would be for two years or five years:
| Term | Projected Cap hit | Maximum Cap Hit | Minimum Cap Hit |
| 5 Years | $3.50M | $4.50M | $3.00M |
| 2 Years | $4.00M | $4.50M | $2.50M |
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